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This paper describes a method for determining optimal repair and replacement policies for aireraft, with specific reference to the F–4. The objective of the analysis is to choose the set of policies from all possible alternatives over a finite planning horizon which minimizes the cost of operations. A dynamic program is presented which seeks an optimal path through a series of decision periods, when each period begins with the choice of keeping an aircraft, reworking it before further operation, or buying a new one. We do not consider changes in technology. Therefore, when a replacement does occur, it is made with a similar aircraft. Multivariate statistical techniques are used to estimate the relevant costs as a function of age, and time since last rework. 相似文献
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Thomas-Durell Young 《战略研究杂志》2013,36(7):1031-1057
By any objective measure, defense institutions in Central and Eastern Europe have all but universally been incapable of producing viable defense plans that are based on objective costing and operational planning data. This situation exists in spite the provision of considerable Western advice and assistance, let alone reporting to and receiving assessments by NATO’s International Staff under Partnership for Peace, as well as via the integrated defense planning and reporting systems. An explanation for this systematic failure across European post-Communist defense institutions can be found in the continued slow development of an over-arching policy framework which directs and approves all activities of the armed forces, as well as the de-centralization of financial decision-making down to capability providers. The essay ends with an examination of the adverse effects of the early introduction of planning programming, budgeting system (PPBS), have had on the development of effective policy and planning capabilities within these defense institutions. 相似文献
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AbstractThe current field study used unique data collected in Israel in July 2014, during a military operation that the Israel Defence Forces (I.D.F.) conducted in the Gaza Strip, in reaction to the thousands of missiles launched from there into Israel. During this operation, the new Iron Dome anti-missile defence system was used to protect Israelis exposed to missile attacks. The study examined factors that correlate with decisions to comply with I.D.F. defence instructions regarding behaviour during missile attacks. In addition, the study examined the relationship between attitudes towards the Iron Dome technology and emotions, risk perceptions, and the decision to comply with I.D.F. defence instructions. The results indicate that stronger positive opinions towards Iron Dome were correlated with lower levels of fear and anger, and beliefs that participant’s chances of being injured by a missile were lower than they had been during previous military operation. In addition, better compliance with I.D.F. defence instructions correlated with being more fearful, angrier at Hamas, living closer to Gaza Strip, and having more positive opinions about Iron Dome. The findings also indicate gender differences with respect to factors correlated with risk perceptions, opinions regarding Iron Dome, and precautionary actions during attacks. 相似文献
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This paper considers a combined system composed of multiple stand-by remotely piloted vehicles (RPVs) and a single battery against a single passive enemy target, where the target, if not killed, is allowed to change its location after each attack. The RPV has the duty to report on target acquisition, to confirm a target kill, and to pass information on any change in target location after each battery attack. The battery has the duty to attack the target on the basis of the target location information provided to it by the RPV. We develop a closed-form expression for the time-dependent state probabilities of the system, which can be used to compute several important combat measures of effectiveness, including (a) the time-varying mean and variance of the number of the RPVs being alive and of the surviving enemy target, (b) the mission success, mission failure, and combat draw probabilities, and (c) the mean and variance of the combat duration time. Illustrative numerical examples are solved for these combat measures, and sensitivity analyses are performed with respect to target acquisition time and target kill probability. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 645–667, 1998 相似文献
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Why do partitioned successor states engage one another in armed conflict? We explore the drivers of war between successor states by comparing two border crises that followed the partitions of Ethiopia (1993) and Sudan (2011). We argue that the politico-military struggles that give way to partition create important historical memories that shape what successor states think about the utility of military force. While the partition of Ethiopia yielded successor states led by regimes that were victors of the preceding war of partition, the war of partition in Sudan produced successor states that emerged out of military stalemate. This distinction explains why Ethiopia and Eritrea waged a costly border war that Sudan and South Sudan were able to avoid. 相似文献
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So Young Sohn 《海军后勤学研究》1994,41(6):707-718
Most ammunition is produced long before its ultimate consumption and stored in a series of different depots for a considerably long period of time. During storage, the quality of the ammunition stockpile deteriorates proportionally to the condition of the depots. We view different conditions associated with a series of depots as step stress. A random effects logistic regression model is employed to predict the quality of ammunition stockpile in terms of the routing information such as a series of locations and duration of storage of ammunition lots. The resultant prediction model can be used to determine the appropriate time for reorder or renovation of ammunition before the quality becomes substandard. An example is given to illustrate the implementation procedure of the prediction model suggested in this article. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 相似文献
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Thomas-Durell Young 《战略研究杂志》2016,39(7):936-955
Traditionally, policy and planning have been institutionally weak in the Naval Staff (Office of the Chief of Naval Operations – OPNAV). In their place, the N8 (Programming) has dominated resource decision-making, and, by default, decisions relating to policy and planning. Recent uncertainty over defense authorization and appropriations has resulted in calls for a greater role to be played by the N3/5, Policy and Plans Directorate. The article argues that reform of the Department of the Navy’s planning process is urgently needed. OPNAV’s weak planning and overly dominant programming practices are compared with those of the Departments of the Army and Air Force and are shown to be out of conformance with them. The article concludes with specific and detailed recommendations for reform of both the current planning and programming processes. 相似文献