Life in the “Gray Zone”: observations for contemporary strategists

The term “Gray Zone” is gaining in popularity as a way of describing contemporary security challenges. This article describes the “short-of-war” strategies – the fait accompli, proxy warfare, and the exploitation of ambiguous deterrence situations, i.e. “salami tactics” – that are captured by the term and offers several explanations for why state and non-state actors are drawn to these strategies. The analysis highlights why defense postures based on deterrence are especially vulnerable to the short-of-war strategies that populate the “Gray Zone.” The article concludes by suggesting how defense officials might adapt defense policies to life in the “Gray Zone.”     

A class of Bayes-optimal two-stage screens

Items are characterized by a set of attributes (T) and a collection of covariates (X) associated with those attributes. We wish to screen for acceptable items (T ∈ C_T), but T is expensive to measure. We envisage a two-stage screen in which observation of X_ is used as a filter at the first stage to sentence most items. The second stage involves the observation of T for those items for which the first stage is indecisive. We adopt a Bayes decision-theoretic approach to the development of optimal two-stage screens within a general framework for costs and stochastic structure. We also consider the important question of how much screens need to be modified in the light of resource limitations that bound the proportion of items that can be passed to the second stage. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

A generalized inspection game

The paper addresses the problem of a patrol trying to stop smugglers who are attempting to ship a cargo of perishable contraband across a strait in one of M time units. The situation was modeled as a two-person zero-sum game of exhaustion by Thomas and Nisgav and this article extends their results. The game has many characteristics in common with the Inspection Game in Owen's book on Game Theory; this Inspection Game is generalized and the relations between the two games are discussed.     

Multiobjective flow-shop scheduling

Previous research on the scheduling of multimachine systems has generally focused on the optimization of individual performance measures. This article considers the sequencing of jobs through a multimachine flow shop, where the quality of the resulting schedule is evaluated according to the associated levels of two scheduling criteria, schedule makespan (C_max) and maximum job tardiness (T_max). We present constructive procedures that quantify the trade-off between C_max and T_max. The significance of this trade-off is that the optimal solution for any preference function involving only C_max and T_max must be contained among the set of efficient schedules that comprise the trade-off curve. For the special case of two-machine flow shops, we present an algorithm that identifies the exact set of efficient schedules. Heruistic procedures for approximating the efficient set are also provided for problems involving many jobs or larger flow shops. Computational results are reported for the procedures which indicate that both the number of efficient schedules and the error incurred by heuristically approximating the efficient set are quite small.     

Optimal layered search

This article investigates the problem of planning an optimal layered search for a stationary target. A search is layered if it assigns each point in the search space an integer number of glimpses or looks. General necessary and sufficient conditions and an existence theorem are obtained. The special case in which the initial target distribution is bivariate normal is considered in detail.     

Transient analysis of multiple-unit reliability systems

A general Markovian model representing several multiple-unit redundant repairable systems is proposed and its transient behavior is studied. Specifically, for multiple-unit reliability system the reliability and availability functions are derived in an explicit form for the transient case. The stationary availability and mean time to system failure are deduced from the main results as special cases.     

Application of dirichlet integrals for curtailment problems in sampling inspection

The standard problem in sampling inspection is to consider plans with and without curtailment. Curtailment causes difficulty and authors rarely give exact results (i.e., exact OC and ASN functions) for curtailed procedures. In this article we regard curtailment as an inverse sampling procedure and use Dirichlet integrals to obtain exact formulas for the OC, the ASN, and also the variance of the number of observations required under three types of plans: no curtailment, semicurtailment (for rejection only) and two-sided curtailment. Different sections of the article deal with the single sample, the two-stage, and the multiple-stage sampling problems. New tables for carrying out the single-sample procedure are included in the article. The authors feel that this article presents new directions and new ways of dealing with problems associated with quality control.     

A model for critical crack size estimation in fatigue failure of gun barrels

With repeated firing, fatigue cracks are produced in a gun barrel, and the barrel is no longer useful when a crack reaches a critical size. The initial crack size and the critical crack size, as well as the number of firings producing the critical crack size, may be considered as random variables. Assuming a proportional damage model for crack growth, a method for estimating the critical crack size distribution is presented. From these results, an estimate of the barrel life, or the residual barrel life once a crack of a given size is measured, can be obtained.     

Incorporating redundancy considerations into stockage models

This article is concerned with evaluating the impact on weapon system availability of component and assembly redundancy. The evaluation must be efficient, and it must be possible to integrate the evaluation into multiechelon stockage models whose objective is to find the least cost mix of stockage consistent with the availability goals for weapon (or other type) systems. The mathematics to be discussed here provides a rigorous solution to the evaluation problem when there is only a single supply echelon; there can be upper-echelon repair, but not supply, unless the supply is from a “perfect” supplier, always in stock. For the more general multiechelon case, approximate approaches are presented.     

Facility location on a grid with a diagonal line

This article extends the traditional median problem on a grid to include a diagonal line (e.g., a street). In contrast to the traditional median problem, this generalized problem is nonconvex and nonseparable, invalidating some of the properties on which well-known median-seeking algorithms are based. This work presents an algorithm for finding the median on this generalized grid and discusses the relationship between it and the traditional median.