Turkey’s strategic choice: buy or make weapons?

Turkey has been investing in its national defence industrial base since the 1980s. As with other developing countries, Turkey’s motivations for investing in national defence industries can be boiled down to the pursuit of defence autarky, economic benefits and international prestige. However, after 40 years of investment, Turkey is unable to reach the primary goals of defence industrialisation. We argue that three factors are important to understanding Turkey’s persistence in these primary goals. First, Turkey believes that there is an overall improvement in its defence industrial capabilities and the goal of autarky is still reachable. Second, increased defence exports support the belief that Turkish defence industries have become sustainable and the trend will continue in the future. The third reason, perhaps most important of all, has to do with the domestic political gains of defence industrialisation: the AKP uses defence industry and indigenous weapon systems for prestige and, therefore, garners broader support.     

分布式A2C2决策队设计

现代战争的特点是高度的分布式协同作战。面对瞬息万变的战场需求 ,完成分布协同作战的指挥自动化系统 ,就必须能够自动适应战场需求变化 ,不断改变指挥系统组织结构。因此 ,实现指挥自动化系统的中心工作是建立 C2系统自适应变结构决策队组织。论述了建立自适应分布式指挥决策组织结构的有关问题 ,研究了在分布式条件下 ,自适应 C2决策队结构的设计。     

Modeling and analysis of vessel casualties resulting from tanker traffic through narrow waterways

In this paper, we present a physics-based stochastic model to investigate vessel casualties resulting from tanker traffic through a narrow waterway. A state-space model is developed to represent the waterway and the location of vessels at a given time. We first determine the distribution of surface current at a given location of the waterway depending on channel geometry, bottom topography, boundary conditions, and the distribution of wind. Then we determine the distribution of the angular drift for a given vessel travelling at a given location of a waterway. Finally, we incorporate the drift probabilities and random arrival of vessels into a Markov chain model. By analyzing the time-dependent and the steady-state probabilities of the Markov chain, we obtain risk measures such as the probability of casualty at a given location and also the expected number of casualties for a given number of vessels arriving per unit time. Analysis of the Markovian model also yields an analytical result that shows that the expected number of casualties is proportional to square of the tanker arrival rate. We present our methodology on an experimental model of a hypothetical narrow waterway. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Reseach Logistics 46: 871–892, 1999     

基于导弹空间飞行的空间碎片筛选方法研究

随着空间活动的日益频繁,空间碎片的数量也与日俱增,给远程弹道导弹的空间飞行安全带来巨大威胁。针对空间碎片数目繁多,为了快速进行导弹空间飞行安全预警和发射窗口选择,根据远程弹道导弹空间飞行特点,提出了适用于导弹与空间碎片碰撞预警的空间碎片筛选方法,并通过仿真计算证明了该筛选方法的科学性和合理性,该筛选方法可提高导弹空间飞行安全预警效率并缩短预警时间。     

电刷镀含纳米粉复合镀层结构和磨损性能

用含纳米金刚石粉的镍镀液电刷镀复合镀层,系统试验研究了复合镀层中纳米金刚石对镀层显微结构、力学性能及耐磨性能的影响.结果表明,纳米金刚石的弥散强化作用,可有效改善镀层的生长、减小内应力,提高镀层的显微硬度.含纳米金刚石粉的复合镀层在室温、高负荷下具有优良的抗疲劳和抗磨损性能,其耐磨性是纯镍镀层的4倍.     

Dissolution of an Empire: Insights from the İstanbul Bourse and the Ottoman War Bond

During the transformation period of the Ottoman Empire leading to the Republic of Turkey, many conflicts took place between 1918 and 1923. These conflicts interrupted the servicing of the Ottoman war bond. The reimbursement likelihood of this bond was related to the outcomes of First World War and the hostilities. This paper analyses the impacts of First World War and hostilities on the risk assessments regarding the Ottoman war debt, using manually collected data on the price of the Ottoman war bond traded at the ?stanbul bourse between 1918 and 1925. The empirical results imply that the defeat of the Bulgarian army and the peace offer of Austria-Hungary were associated with the increasing premium demanded by investors of the bond. The victories of the Turkish National Movement and the peace offer of the Allies to end the hostilities by 1922 positively affected the likelihood of the servicing of the debt.     

非战争军事行动中军人群体心理救助

非战争军事行动的突然性、危险性、繁重性,必然引发军人相应的群体心理反应,并呈现出相应的紧张、挫败感、心理麻木、心理冲突等不良群体心理特征.风险认知、风险沟通、风险归因是导致非战争军事行动中军人产生消极群体心理反应的主要原因.及时、有效的群体心理救助是提高执行非战争军事行动能力的有效举措.     

信息技术对现代心理战的影响

20世纪70年代开始的以信息化为本质和核心的世界新军事变革,强化了心理战的时代性、发展性和创新性。信息技术不仅丰富了现代心理战的作战理念,拓展了心理战的作战空间,促进了心理战武器装备的发展,而且使得心理战的作战样式发生了质的变化,强化了心理战的心理刺激效果、心理渗透效果和心理损伤效果。     

Optimal job splitting on a multi‐slot machine with applications in the printing industry

In this article, we define a scheduling/packing problem called the Job Splitting Problem, motivated by the practices in the printing industry. There are n types of items to be produced on an m‐slot machine. A particular assignment of the types to the slots is called a “run” configuration and requires a setup cost. Once a run begins, the production continues according to that configuration and the “length” of the run represents the quantity produced in each slot during that run. For each unit of production in excess of demand, there is a waste cost. Our goal is to construct a production plan, i.e., a set of runs, such that the total setup and waste cost is minimized. We show that the problem is strongly NP‐hard and propose two integer programming formulations, several preprocessing steps, and two heuristics. We also provide a worst‐case bound for one of the heuristics. Extensive tests on real‐world and randomly generated instances show that the heuristics are both fast and effective, finding near‐optimal solutions. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

外军车辆装备发展趋势分析

车辆装备是世界各国陆军部队主要的陆上机动平台,也是装备数量最多、使用范围最为广泛的装备之一。本文总结了外军车辆装备的五大发展趋势,即：高机动化、防护化、智能化、作战与保障一体化和技术高新化。以示对我军车辆装备的发展有所借鉴。