Modeling and analysis of uncertain time‐critical tasking problems

This paper describes modeling and operational analysis of a generic asymmetric service‐system situation in which (a) Red agents, potentially threatening, but in another but important interpretation, are isolated friendlies, such as downed pilots, that require assistance and “arrive” according to some partially known and potentially changing pattern in time and space; and (b) Reds have effectively limited unknown deadlines or times of availability for Blue service, i.e., detection, classification, and attack in a military setting or emergency assistance in others. We discuss various service options by Blue service agents and devise several approximations allowing one to compute efficiently those proportions of tasks of different classes that are successfully served or, more generally, if different rewards are associated with different classes of tasks, the percentage of the possible reward gained. We suggest heuristic policies for a Blue server to select the next task to perform and to decide how much time to allocate to that service. We discuss this for a number of specific examples. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006.     

An efficient SPH methodology for modelling mechanical characteristics of particulate composites

Particulate composites are one of the widely used materials in producing numerous state-of-the-art components in biomedical, automobile, aerospace including defence technology. Variety of modelling techniques have been adopted in the past to model mechanical behaviour of particulate composites. Due to their favourable properties, particle-based methods provide a convenient platform to model failure or fracture of these composites. Smooth particle hydrodynamics (SPH) is one of such methods which demonstrate excellent potential for modelling failure or fracture of particulate composites in a Lagrangian setting. One of the major challenges in using SPH method for modelling composite materials depends on accurate and efficient way to treat interface and boundary conditions. In this paper, a master-slave method based multi-freedom constraints is proposed to impose essential boundary conditions and interfacial displacement constraints in modelling mechanical behaviour of composite materials using SPH method. The proposed methodology enforces the above constraints more accurately and requires only smaller condition number for system stiffness matrix than the procedures based on typical penalty function approach. A minimum cut-off value-based error criteria is employed to improve the compu-tational efficiency of the proposed methodology. In addition, the proposed method is further enhanced by adopting a modified numerical interpolation scheme along the boundary to increase the accuracy and computational efficiency. The numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed master-slave approach yields better accuracy in enforcing displacement constraints and requires approximately the same computational time as that of penalty method.     

Predicting intensive care unit bed occupancy for integrated operating room scheduling via neural networks

In a master surgery scheduling (MSS) problem, a hospital's operating room (OR) capacity is assigned to different medical specialties. This task is critical since the risk of assigning too much or too little OR time to a specialty is associated with overtime or deficit hours of the staff, deferral or delay of surgeries, and unsatisfied—or even endangered—patients. Most MSS approaches in the literature focus only on the OR while neglecting the impact on downstream units or reflect a simplified version of the real‐world situation. We present the first prediction model for the integrated OR scheduling problem based on machine learning. Our three‐step approach focuses on the intensive care unit (ICU) and reflects elective and urgent patients, inpatients and outpatients, and all possible paths through the hospital. We provide an empirical evaluation of our method with surgery data for Universitätsklinikum Augsburg, a German tertiary care hospital with 1700 beds. We show that our model outperforms a state‐of‐the‐art model by 43% in number of predicted beds. Our model can be used as supporting tool for hospital managers or incorporated in an optimization model. Eventually, we provide guidance to support hospital managers in scheduling surgeries more efficiently.     

Cultural Conflict within Civil-Military Cooperation: A Case Study in Bosnia

In peace-support operations, employees of international humanitarian organisations often clash with those of the military. A lack of familiarity with each other's practices and values, embedded in their respective organisational cultures, is often seen as the culprit. This article presents and illustrates a road map to manage such cultural differences between cooperating organisations. We found that the military culture, in our Bosnian case study, was seen to operate as a hierarchical culture (characterised by formalisation, stability, predictability and efficiency). The culture of international humanitarian organisations, on the other hand, was depicted as clan-type (characterised by teamwork, participation and consensus). To facilitate the creation of cultural awareness as well as respect for, and reconciliation of, cultural differences we recommend several concrete actions that could improve civil-military cooperation.     

State and society in Asia

India and China are the 2 most populous countries of the world; in the 1950s, both countries initiated a centrally planned program for rapid development within vastly differing political systems. China embarked India's policy encouraged only voluntary acceptance of family planning. In both cases, however, government involvement in population forms a part of comprehensive national planning. Both countries rely on a limited resource base and technological sophistication in order to alleviate mass poverty and misery. The political implications of population growth cannot be neatly isolated from those that are generated by social and economic forces of change in a society that is in a transitional stage of modernization and development. Development has not been an unmixed bleesing; population growth is one of its counterproductive outcomes. The development process has begun to draw increasing attention to hitherto neglected correlates of fertility decline, such as a reduction in infant mortality, universal education, improvement in women's status, and women's participation in economic activity outside the home, all of which eventually result in greater demand for family planning services. Both the Indian and Chinese models highlight the importance of taking the people into one's confidence; the response of the common people to official initiatives is critical in securing a reduction in fertility levels. China has adopted a 1 child family policy, yet it is unreasonable to expect that the Indian people would agree to a nationally prescribed family size norm below 2 children. The principal determinant of future population trends in both these countries is the course of their politics. The success of developing countries will be assured if the developed nations support their progress without being worried about their population growth, which is the result of their unavoidable failure to modernize their social and economic structures.     

Book reviews

Export or Die: Britain's Defence Trade with Iran and Iraq. by Davina Miller, London: Cassell, 1996, ISBN 0-304-33852-4 (hbk), £40.00, 04-33853-2 (pbk), £11.99.

The Storm Passed By: Ireland and the Battle of the Atlantic, 1940-1941. by Trevor Allen, Dublin: Irish Academic Press, 1996, ISBN 0-7165-2616-6, (hbk) £17.50.

Arms Control Toward the 21st Century. by Jeffrey A. Larsen and Greqory J. Rattray (eds). Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 1996.

Asia-Pacific Security, Less Uncertainty, New Opportunities. Edited by Gary Klintworth. Melbourne: Addison Wesley Longman, 1996, ISBN 0-582-80321-7, £24.99.

Masters of War, Military Dissent and Politics in the Vietnam Era. by Robert Buzzanco, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996, ISBN 0-521-48046-9 (hbk), £29.95

Controlling the Arms Trade: the West Versus the Rest. By Paul Cornish, London: Bowerdean Publishing Co., 1996, ISBN 0-906097-44-4 (pbk), £9.99.

Secret Agencies: US Intelligence in a Hostile World. by Loch K. Johnson, London: Yale University Press, 1997, ISBN 0-300-06611-2 (hbk), £22.50.     

Quadratic programming with quadratic constraints

A program with a quadratic objective function and quadratic constraints is considered. Two duals to such programs are provided, and an algorithm is presented based upon approximations to the duals. The algorithm consists of a sequence of linear programs and programs involving the optimization of a quadratic function either unconstrained or constrained to the nonnegative orthant. An example involving production planning is presented.     

Information in two-stage programming under uncertainty

The random variables in two-stage programming under uncertainty are generally treated in a passive manner in that no information regarding the random variables or the process generating the random variables may be obtained. This paper develops the economics of information for the case in which the probability distributions are discrete. A multinomial process is assumed to generate the random variables, and the parameter vector of that process is assumed to be unknown. A Dirichlet prior distribution on the parameter vector is used, and the computation of the value of information thus involves a Dirichlet-multinomial distribution on the random variables. An example involving producing to meet uncertain demands is presented.