A Doctrine without Dogma

ABSTRACT

In No Use: Nuclear Weapons and U.S. National Security Policy, Thomas M. Nichols calls for a constructive rethinking about the history of nuclear weapons and the attitudes that have grown up around them. Despite dramatic reductions since the end of the Cold War, the United States still maintains a robust nuclear triad that far exceeds the needs of realistic deterrence in the twenty-first century. Nichols advocates a new strategy of minimum deterrence that includes deep unilateral reductions to the US nuclear arsenal, a no-first-use pledge, withdrawing US tactical nuclear weapons from Europe, and ending extended nuclear deterrence for allies. The weakest part of his argument eschews nuclear retaliation against small nuclear states that attack the United States, opting instead to use only conventional weapons to guarantee regime change. He admits this will entail enormous cost and sacrifice, but cites the “immorality” of retaliating against a smaller power with few targets worthy of nuclear weaponry, which totally ignores the massive underground facilities constructed to shield military facilities in many of these states. Despite this, Nichols's thoughtful approach to post-Cold War deterrence deserves thoughtful consideration.     

GENDER AND ATTITUDES TOWARD PROFESSIONAL ETHICS

This study was designed to examine the influence of gender and age on attitudes toward professional ethics among a sample of the Nigeria police officers. Using a cross-sectional survey, data was collected from a total of 163 participants. Results revealed that gender and age were significant predictors of unethical beliefs; female and older police participants were also more ethical than their male and younger counterparts. These findings were discussed in the context of socialization theory, Gilligan's moral development theory and other organisational practices, while its practical implications for the recruitment, selection and placement in the Nigeria police were also emphasized.     

Quadratic bottleneck problems

We study the quadratic bottleneck problem (QBP) which generalizes several well‐studied optimization problems. A weak duality theorem is introduced along with a general purpose algorithm to solve QBP. An example is given which illustrates duality gap in the weak duality theorem. It is shown that the special case of QBP where feasible solutions are subsets of a finite set having the same cardinality is NP‐hard. Likewise the quadratic bottleneck spanning tree problem (QBST) is shown to be NP‐hard on a bipartite graph even if the cost function takes 0–1 values only. Two lower bounds for QBST are derived and compared. Efficient heuristic algorithms are presented for QBST along with computational results. When the cost function is decomposable, we show that QBP is solvable in polynomial time whenever an associated linear bottleneck problem can be solved in polynomial time. As a consequence, QBP with feasible solutions form spanning trees, s‐t paths, matchings, etc., of a graph are solvable in polynomial time with a decomposable cost function. We also show that QBP can be formulated as a quadratic minsum problem and establish some asymptotic results. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

On valuing appreciating human assets in services

This paper derives optimal policies for when to hire, train, and lay off employees in service organizations when worker productivity appreciates deterministically or stochastically under constant, monotonic, and cyclic service demand. The model, an extension of the machine replacement problem from the engineering economy literature, uses infinite horizon linear programming to produce optimal personnel planning strategies and dual prices that characterize the workforce's economic value. The effect of employee attrition is also considered. In its valuation of human assets, unlike pure accounting approaches that only try to measure, this paper proposes an approach to capture the interaction between firm decisions pertaining to human resources and human resource value. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Turning gangsters into allies: the American way of war in Northern Afghanistan

ABSTRACT

The American way of war in Afghanistan presents a conundrum for proponents of 21st-century state-building projects. How can liberal peace proponents engage in efficient state building without sacrificing their ideals? The US learned that state-building allocates a degree of command and control to powerbrokers operating in the shadows to launder aid money, traffic illicit narcotics, and engage in extrajudicial punishments. These clients failed to represent the liberal values foreign patrons endorsed, because the latter not only offered resources without conditions but also rewarded bad behavior. This issue is examined by looking at the case of post-2001 northern Afghanistan, where powerful warlords should have held greater control over their paramilitary forces, limited predatory behavior, and built stronger relationships with the community. Instead, warlords-turned-statesmen expanded their material and social influence in the north, while holding onto the informal instruments of racketeering and patronage that overwhelmed Western ideals and shaped the predatory state present in Afghanistan today. Moreover, paramilitaries were influenced by material, social, and normative incentives that rewarded violent and predatory behavior and further eroded already weak community control mechanisms at the subdistrict level.     

India’s nuclear counter-revolution: nuclear learning and the future of deterrence

ABSTRACT

The India–Pakistan near war of February–March 2019 highlights India’s ongoing evolution in strategic thought and practice since its emergence in 1998 as an overt nuclear-weapon possessor. These changes, involving an increasing willingness to engage in the intentional escalation of conflict with a nuclear-armed rival willing to be the first to use nuclear weapons, challenge certain academic assumptions about the behavior of nuclear-weapon states. In particular, they undermine the expectations of the nuclear-revolution theory—which anticipates nuclear and conventional restraint among nuclear-armed rivals through fear of mutual assured destruction—and the model of nuclear learning which underpins this theory, in which new nuclear-weapon states gradually absorb this restraint through policy-maker learning. This article explores how India’s learning pathway since 1998 has deviated from these expectations. India is instead pursuing its own “revolution,” in the direction of creating capabilities for flexible response and escalation dominance. It concludes by illuminating the similarities between Indian strategic behavior and contemporary practices of other nuclear-armed states, and suggests that New Delhi’s emerging de facto nuclear doctrine and posture is part of a broader empirical challenge to our current conceptions of the nuclear revolution and of nuclear learning.     

Organizing for the ‘gray zone’ fight: early Cold War realities and the CIA’s Directorate of Operations

ABSTRACT

Despite its portrayal as something new, the concept of the ‘gray zone’ is not novel. It was the Cold War battleground in which the USA and the Soviet Union waged rival unconventional campaigns, and it was there that the newly formed Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) was given responsibility for operating. This was not the organization’s original purpose, but Cold War exigencies forced Washington to improvise and build an organization with unique capabilities. These early years shaped the CIA’s operations directorate, creating two distinct cultures within the larger agency, one focused on intelligence collection and the other focused on covert action.     

The ballot or the bomb belt: the roots of female suicide terrorism before and after 9/11

ABSTRACT

In recent years, an upward trend in terrorist attacks has mirrored an increase in suicide attacks. According to our preliminary analysis, the events of September 11^th marked a sea change in the number of terrorist attacks. While a rich literature has evaluated why terrorists participate in suicide attacks, none have considered the uptick in volume after 9/11, and fewer yet have considered how female fighters may be contributing to this. We evaluate how both structural and female-specific factors affect the likelihood of female fighter suicide attacks. Recent literature discovered a trend in terrorist groups using females as suicide bombers due to cultural norms that permit them to get closer to targets. We test our theory using data from the Chicago Project on Security and Threats Suicide Attack Database (CPOST-SAD) and various datasets from the Quality of Government (QOG) compendium for the 1986–2016 time period. We construct a series of models that consider both female-specific and structural factors that could explain variation in the number of female suicide attacks. Our results indicate that our models encompass relatively stable patterns. Female political empowerment, female educational attainment, and female employment rates are significant and positive in our post-9/11 models, indicating that they may increase female suicide attacks. Democracy is a relevant structural factor and generally yields a positive effect on female suicide attacks across both time periods and multiple models. Ethnic fractionalization is significant in both time periods but yields a negative effect before 9/11 and a positive effect in the later period.