Cost analysis and extension of a simple maintenance-scheduling heuristic

Practitioners of maintenance scheduling sometimes use a simple analytic formula, derived based on inspection scheduling, as a heuristic to determine the length of the preventive maintenance period. The sensitivity of this heuristic solution is analyzed and the cost penalties are calculated compared to the exact solution that utilizes the lifetime distribution in the derivation of the optimal preventive maintenance period. A simple extension of the heuristic is suggested to improve the approximation with a slightly increased computational effort. The sensitivity and cost analysis of the improved heuristic are discussed as well. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

A computationally efficient approach for determining inventory levels in a capacitated multiechelon production‐distribution system

The system under study is a single item, two‐echelon production‐inventory system consisting of a capacitated production facility, a central warehouse, and M regional distribution centers that satisfy stochastic demand. Our objective is to determine a system base‐stock level which minimizes the long run average system cost per period. Central to the approach are (1) an inventory allocation model and associated convex cost function designed to allocate a given amount of system inventory across locations, and (2) a characterization of the amount of available system inventory using the inventory shortfall random variable. An exact model must consider the possibility that inventories may be imbalanced in a given period. By assuming inventory imbalances cannot occur, we develop an approximation model from which we obtain a lower bound on the per period expected cost. Through an extensive simulation study, we analyze the quality of our approximation, which on average performed within 0.50% of the lower bound. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 377–398, 2000     

Estimating the probability that a simulated system will be the best

Consider a stochastic simulation experiment consisting of v independent vector replications consisting of an observation from each of k independent systems. Typical system comparisons are based on mean (long‐run) performance. However, the probability that a system will actually be the best is sometimes more relevant, and can provide a very different perspective than the systems' means. Empirically, we select one system as the best performer (i.e., it wins) on each replication. Each system has an unknown constant probability of winning on any replication and the numbers of wins for the individual systems follow a multinomial distribution. Procedures exist for selecting the system with the largest probability of being the best. This paper addresses the companion problem of estimating the probability that each system will be the best. The maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the multinomial cell probabilities for a set of v vector replications across k systems are well known. We use these same v vector replications to form v^k unique vectors (termed pseudo‐replications) that contain one observation from each system and develop estimators based on AVC (All Vector Comparisons). In other words, we compare every observation from each system with every combination of observations from the remaining systems and note the best performer in each pseudo‐replication. AVC provides lower variance estimators of the probability that each system will be the best than the MLEs. We also derive confidence intervals for the AVC point estimators, present a portion of an extensive empirical evaluation and provide a realistic example. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 341–358, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10019     

Optimal service rates of a service facility with perishable inventory items

In this paper we optimally control service rates for an inventory system of service facilities with perishable products. We consider a finite capacity system where arrivals are Poisson‐distributed, lifetime of items have exponential distribution, and replenishment is instantaneous. We determine the service rates to be employed at each instant of time so that the long‐run expected cost rate is minimized for fixed maximum inventory level and capacity. The problem is modelled as a semi‐Markov decision problem. We establish the existence of a stationary optimal policy and we solve it by employing linear programming. Several numerical examples which provide insight to the behavior of the system are presented. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 464–482, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10021     

Netwar Revisited: The Fight for the Future Continues

This work continues to develop the 'netwar' concept that the authors introduced in 1993 and have expanded upon in their various RAND and other writings ever since. Deeper understanding of the nature, strengths and vulnerabilities of networks will prove useful in combating terrorism and transnational crime, but also in understanding militant social activism, both of the violently disruptive sort and that which aims at fostering the rise of a global civil society. This essay also assesses recent US performance in the terror war, and concludes by raising concerns over the possible rise of a new form of network-based fascism.     

Bicriteria product design optimization: An efficient solution procedure using AND/OR trees

Competitive imperatives are causing manufacturing firms to consider multiple criteria when designing products. However, current methods to deal with multiple criteria in product design are ad hoc in nature. In this paper we present a systematic procedure to efficiently solve bicriteria product design optimization problems. We first present a modeling framework, the AND/OR tree, which permits a simplified representation of product design optimization problems. We then show how product design optimization problems on AND/OR trees can be framed as network design problems on a special graph—a directed series‐parallel graph. We develop an enumerative solution algorithm for the bicriteria problem that requires as a subroutine the solution of the parametric shortest path problem. Although this parametric problem is hard on general graphs, we show that it is polynomially solvable on the series‐parallel graph. As a result we develop an efficient solution algorithm for the product design optimization problem that does not require the use of complex and expensive linear/integer programming solvers. As a byproduct of the solution algorithm, sensitivity analysis for product design optimization is also efficiently performed under this framework. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 574–592, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10031     

Reconsidering minimum deterrence in South Asia: Indian responses to Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons

India’s nuclear doctrine and posture has traditionally been shaped by minimum deterrence logic. This logic includes assumptions that possession of only a small retaliatory nuclear force generates sufficient deterrent effect against adversaries, and accordingly that development of limited nuclear warfighting concepts and platforms are unnecessary for national security. The recent emergence of Pakistan’s Nasr tactical nuclear missile platform has generated pressures on Indian minimum deterrence. This article analyzes Indian official and strategic elite responses to the Nasr challenge, including policy recommendations and attendant implications. It argues that India should continue to adhere to minimum deterrence, which serves as the most appropriate concept for Indian nuclear policy and best supports broader foreign and security policy objectives. However, the form through which Indian minimum deterrence is delivered must be rethought in light of this new stage of regional nuclear competition.