The reliability of a series system of repairable subsystems: A bayesian approach

Consider the problem of estimating the reliability of a series system of (possibly) repairable subsystems when test data and historical information are available at the component, subsystem, and system levels. Such a problem is well suited to a Bayesian approach. Martz, Waller, and Fickas [Technometrics, 30 , 143–154 (1988)] presented a Bayesian procedure that accommodates pass/fail (binomial) data at any level. However, other types of test data are often available, including (a) lifetimes of nonrepayable components, and (b) repair histories for repairable subsystems. In this article we describe a new Bayesian procedure that accommodates pass/fail, life, and repair data at any level. We assume a Weibull model for the life data, a censored Weibull model for the pass/fail data, and a power-law process model for the repair data. Consequently, the test data at each level can be represented by a two-parameter likelihood function of a certain form, and historical information can be expressed using a conjugate family of prior distributions. We discuss computational issues, and use the procedure to analyze the reliability of a vehicle system. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Should we be using cost of capital in calculating holding costs of consumable inventory?

The DOD directs the usage of 10% of item cost as the cost of capital in the calculation of inventory holding costs. This 10% cost is not totally justified and a complete review must be accomplished to bring this factor to a meaningful and more useful value. The current logic supporting a 10% cost of capital results in a continuing perturbation which forces the Air Force to operate in a less than efficient mode when using the economic order quantity for consumable purchases.     

基于四阶龙格-库塔公式的火控系统瞄准角修正模型

目前我军装甲突击车辆火控系统的弹道解算模型采用了线性多项式拟合的方法,且应用弹道刚性原理忽略了炮目高低角对射击精度的影响,其射表没有编制大炮目高低角射击时瞄准角的修正量,导致在进行大炮目高低角射击时,首发命中率受到了一定的影响,客观上制约了其火力性能的发挥。对此,利用四阶龙格-库塔公式,建立了对含有炮目高低角的外弹道方程直接进行数值求解的数学模型,得到更为精确的瞄准角,并通过matlab编程计算出瞄准角偏差量,从根本上解决大射角射击时弹道刚性原理产生的误差。     

C4ISR网络安全态势的可拓云理论综合评估方法

为了对C4ISR网络的安全态势进行精确评估,提出了一种基于云理论和可拓学的评估方法。分析了影响C4ISR网络安全态势的评价指标体系,通过主客观综合赋权法确定各评价指标的权系数。在此基础上,利用云理论和可拓学中的基元理论,构建C4ISR网络安全态势的综合评估方法。通过对实例的分析,表明了该方法的可操作性和优越性。     

境外换持证件取道偷渡的形式特点及对策研究

境外换持证件取道偷渡活动由于检查难、处罚难而成为近年来犯罪分子偷渡的主要方式,严重损害了我国的国际声誉和形象,扰乱了正常的出入境秩序,对此必须有针对性地采取综合措施,才能收到最佳打击、防范效果。     

基于模糊聚类的粒子群算法在雷达组网优化布站中的应用

提出了一种基于模糊C-均值聚类的粒子群算法,将其应用于雷达组网优化布站.定性分析了雷达组网布站原则并对其量化,建立了优化布站的数学模型.为加快求解速度,结合模糊C-均值聚类对标准粒子群算法进行了改进,给出了基于模糊C-均值聚类的粒子群算法在该优化问题中的设计方法,并与标准粒子群算法和遗传算法进行了仿真对比.结果表明,该方法能够快速得出雷达组网优化布站方案,验证了雷达组网布站模型的可行性和改进算法的有效性.