The political command and control of nuclear forces

“Even more than in 1914, governments in our own day are likely to be ignorant of the technical detail of war and the tactical measures that can or cannot (or, more important, must or must not) be taken in various specialized situations. In peacetime the study and preparation of these measures will be relegated to military staffs as being narrow and technical. Today, .... it is almost impossible to get people interested in the tactics and strategy of thermonuclear war. It is now believed that only the prewar moves are of interest, and even those are not too important because deterrence is supposed to be so close to 'automatic'.” Herman Kahn (1960).     

Control-variate selection criteria

For multiresponse simulations requiring point and confidence-region estimators of the mean response, we propose control-variate selection criteria that minimize mean-square confidence-region volume in two situations: (a) Only the mean control vector is known, and standard linear control-variate estimation procedures are used. (b) Covariances among controls are also known and are incorporated into new linear control-variate estimation procedures. An example illustrates the performance of these selection criteria.     

Allocation policies and cost approximations for multilocation inventory systems

Consider a central depot that supplies several locations experiencing random demands. Periodically, the depot may place an order for exogenous supply. Orders arrive after a fixed leadtime, and are then allocated among the several locations. Each allocation reaches its destination after a further delay. We consider the special case where the penalty-cost/holding-cost ratio is constant over the locations. Several approaches are given to approximate the dynamic program describing the problem. Each approach provides both a near-optimal order policy and an approximation of the optimal cost of the original problem. In addition, simple but effective allocation policies are discussed.     

A note on a model for evasive vehicle movement along a fixed path

A model for a vehicle moving evasively along a fixed path is defined in terms of a two- state semi-Markov process. An important feature of this model is the continuous movement of the vehicle as a function of time. One potential application of this model is the development of a strategy for the deployment of long-range missiles on long underground tracks.     

Hu's precedence tree scheduling algorithm: A simple proof

This article presents a simple proof of Hu's algorithm for scheduling in minimum time a set of tasks constrained by precedence tree constraints, each task requiring a unit time to complete, and where m processors are available.     

On the relationship between the force ratio and the instantaneous casualty-exchange ratio for some lanchester-type models of warfare

A “local” condition of winning (in the sense that the force ratio is changing to the advantage of one of the combatants) is shown to apply to all deterministic Lanchester-type models with two force-level variables. This condition involves the comparison of only the force ratio and the instantaneous force-change ratio. For no replacements and withdrawals, a combatant is winning “instantaneously” when the force ratio exceeds the differential casualty-exchange ratio. General outcome-prediction relations are developed from this “local” condition and applied to a nonlinear model for Helmbold-type combat between two homogeneous forces with superimposed effects of supporting fires not subject to attrition. Conditions under which the effects of the supporting fires “cancel out” are given.