Outbound supply chain network design with mode selection and lead time considerations

We present a large‐scale network design model for the outbound supply chain of an automotive company that considers transportation mode selection (road vs. rail) and explicitly models the relationship between lead times and the volume of flow through the nodes of the network. We formulate the problem as a nonlinear zero‐one integer program, reformulate it to obtain a linear integer model, and develop a Lagrangian heuristic for its solution that gives near‐optimal results in reasonable time. We also present scenario analyses that examine the behavior of the supply chain under different parameter settings and the performance of the solution procedures under different experimental conditions. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Exact expected values of variance estimators for simulation

We formulate exact expressions for the expected values of selected estimators of the variance parameter (that is, the sum of covariances at all lags) of a steady‐state simulation output process. Given in terms of the autocovariance function of the process, these expressions are derived for variance estimators based on the simulation analysis methods of nonoverlapping batch means, overlapping batch means, and standardized time series. Comparing estimator performance in a first‐order autoregressive process and the M/M/1 queue‐waiting‐time process, we find that certain standardized time series estimators outperform their competitors as the sample size becomes large. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

A logistic regression/Markov chain model for NCAA basketball

Each year, more than $3 billion is wagered on the NCAA Division 1 men's basketball tournament. Most of that money is wagered in pools where the object is to correctly predict winners of each game, with emphasis on the last four teams remaining (the Final Four). In this paper, we present a combined logistic regression/Markov chain model for predicting the outcome of NCAA tournament games given only basic input data. Over the past 6 years, our model has been significantly more successful than the other common methods such as tournament seedings, the AP and ESPN/USA Today polls, the RPI, and the Sagarin and Massey ratings. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006.     

Requirements planning for modular products

The focus of this paper is on determining the requirements of different component options of a modular end‐product in an uncertain environment. We explicitly model two distinct sources of uncertainty: stochastic end‐product demand and unknown market proportions for the different product options available. Our cost minimizing model focuses on determining the optimal requirements policies for component options that meet a pre‐set service level. We show that simple common‐sense requirements policies are not generally optimal; there is a non‐linear connection between service level and component requirements that is hard to characterize without a detailed analysis. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

Single-period inventory models with demand uncertainty and quantity discounts: Behavioral implications and a new solution procedure

Quantity discounts are considered in the context of the single-period inventory model known as “the newsboy problem.” It is argued that the behavioral implications of the all-units discount schedule are more complex and interesting than the literature has suggested. Consideration of this behavior and the use of marginal analysis lead to a new method for solving this problem that is both conceptually simpler and more efficient than the traditional approach. This marginal-cost solution procedure is described graphically, an algorithm is presented, and an example is used to demonstrate that this solution procedure can be extended easily to handle complex discount schedules, such as some combined (simultaneously applied) purchasing and transportation cost discount schedules.