The 22 September 1979 Vela Incident: The Detected Double-Flash

On 22 September 1979 two optical sensors on U.S. satellite Vela 6911 detected a double-flash of light that appeared characteristic of an atmospheric nuclear explosion conducted over the southern Atlantic or Indian Ocean. It became known as the Vela Incident, Event 747, or Alert 747. An anomaly between the amplitude of the two signals during the second pulse led a U.S. government expert panel established to assess the event to conclude in mid-1980 that a more likely explanation was the impact of a small meteoroid on the satellite, the debris from which reflected sunlight into the sensors' field of view. No model was presented to support the contention, and a similar anomaly—known as background modulation—was a given for the second pulse of all confirmed explosions detected by Vela, though beginning later. Nonetheless, this event has remained the subject of intense debate. This article reviews the evidence and presents an updated analysis of the original Vela signal based on recently declassified literature and on modern knowledge of interplanetary dust and hyper velocity impact. Given the geometry of the satellite, and that the bulk of the surface comprised solar panels, much of the debris from any collision would be carried away from the sensors' field of view. Thus, a meteoroid collision appears much less likely than previously assumed. The double flash is instead consistent with a nuclear explosion, albeit detected by an aged satellite for which background modulation was abnormal and/or commenced earlier, also seen in post-event SYSTEM tests. A companion paper to be published in 2018 presents radionuclide and hydroacoustic evidence supporting the conclusion that the Vela Incident was a nuclear weapon test explosion.     

Situations and Dispositions: How to Rescue the Military Virtues from Social Psychology

In recent years, it has been argued more than once that situations determine our conduct to a much greater extent than our character does. This argument rests on the findings of social psychologists such as Stanley Milgram, who have popularized the idea that we can all be brought to harm innocent others. An increasing number of philosophers and ethicists make use of such findings, and some of them have argued that this so-called situationist challenge fatally undermines virtue ethics. As virtue ethics is currently the most popular underpinning for ethics education in the military, it is important to know to what extent the claim situationists make is correct. Fortunately, a closer look indicates that an interactionist perspective, with our character and the situation interplaying, is more accurate than the situationist perspective.     

Terrorist choice: a stochastic dominance and prospect theory analysis

The paper explores terrorist choice by applying two well-known theoretical frameworks: stochastic dominance and prospect theory (PT). We analyse each pair of attack methods that can be formed from the RAND-MIPT database and the Global Terrorism Database. Instances of stochastic dominance are identified. PT orderings are computed. Attention is accorded to the identification of ‘trigger points’ and the circumstances that may lead to an increased likelihood that a terrorist will select an attack method associated with a higher expected number of fatalities, i.e. a potentially more damaging attack method.     

Local search methods for the discrete time/resource trade-off problem in project networks

In this paper we consider the discrete time/resource trade-off problem in project networks. Given a project network consisting of nodes (activities) and arcs (technological precedence relations), in which the duration of the activities is a discrete, nonincreasing function of the amount of a single renewable resource committed to it, the discrete time/resource trade-off problem minimizes the project makespan subject to precedence constraints and a single renewable resource constraint. For each activity, a work content is specified such that all execution modes (duration/resource requirement pairs) for performing the activity are allowed as long as the product of the duration and the resource requirement is at least as large as the specified work content. We present a tabu search procedure which is based on a decomposition of the problem into a mode assignment phase and a resource-constrained project scheduling phase with fixed mode assignments. Extensive computational experience, including a comparison with other local search methods, is reported. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 553–578, 1998     

An engagement model to optimize defense against a multiple attack assuming perfect kill assessment

We present an air-defense engagement model to counter an attack by multiple antiship missiles, assuming perfect kill assessment. In this model, the probability of shooting down all incoming missiles is maximized. A generating function is employed to produce an algorithm which is used to evaluate the outcomes. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 687–697, 1997     

边消警部队政工专业研究生教学探讨

武警学院边消警部队政治工作专业的研究生教学要抓好的问题是:选准苗子,严格把好研究生的入学关;做好教学的各项准备工作,严格把好教学关;注意各方协调,齐抓共管,把好对研究生的管理关;不断加强研究生教学的硬件建设,把好保障关;坚持各项政策标准和原则,把好研究生毕业质量关。     

On the normality and abnormality of offsets obligations

Defence offsets have often been described as government‐to‐business compensation arrangements or contracts involving “reciprocity beyond that associated with normal market exchange”. This paper argues that it is irrelevant and misleading to use this notion as a criterion for defining offsets.

The paper also explores the apparent inconsistency between the maximising efficiency in defence procurement and the application of offsets requirements. It is shown that defence offsets are a subset of all the price‐quality‐quantity trade‐offs which in general characterise negotiations surrounding complex transactions.

It is argued that although reciprocal or offsetting arrangements are a normal aspect of commercial transacting, the operation of certain offsets schemes namely mandatory offsets obligations, may inhibit the buyer's flexibility in negotiating deals and result in inefficient procurement. This leads us to ask why these offsets schemes have persisted for so long.     

The German arms industry in a European context: A study in successful downsizing

Defence offsets rank as one of the most important and controversial topics within the broad field of defence economics. Arms vendors are likely to view offsetting investment as a distraction, fearful of its potential to hurt the bottom line. By contrast, policymakers in the arms purchasing countries see offsets as an opportunity to extract technology transfer, as well as employment, investment and export sales opportunities. Establishing the actual impact of offsets, however, is not easy. The subject is shrouded in secrecy and myth, with anecdote and generalisation pervading even the intellectual press. This paper seeks to break the mould by offering an empirical case study of the role of offsets in Malaysian defence industrialisation.