Nonstationary stochastic gold-mining: A time-sequential tactical-allocation problem

This paper presents an extension of gold-mining problems formulated in earlier work by R. Bellman and J. Kadane. Bellman assumes there are two gold mines labeled A and B, respectively, each with a known initial amount of gold. There is one delicate gold-mining machine which can be used to excavate one mine per day. Associated with mine A is a known constant return rate and a known constant probability of breakdown. There is also a return rate and probability of breakdown for mine B. Bellman solves the problem of finding a sequential decision procedure to maximize the expected amount of gold obtained before breakdown of the machine. Kadane extends the problem by assuming that there are several mines and that there are sequences of constants such that the jth constant for each mine represents the return rate for the jth excavation of that mine. He also assumes that the probability of breakdown during the jth excavation of a mine depends on j. We extend these results by assuming that the return rates are random variables with known joint distribution and by allowing the probability of breakdown to be a function of previous observations on the return rates. We show that under certain regularity conditions on the joint distributions of the random variables, the optimal policy is: at each stage always select a mine which has maximal conditional expected return per unit risk. This gold-mining problem is also a formulation of the problem of time-sequential tactical allocation of bombers to targets. Several examples illustrating these results are presented.     

A heuristic network procedure for the assembly line balancing problem

Proposed is a Heuristic Network (HN) Procedure for balancing assembly lines. The procedure uses simple heuristic rules to generate a network which is then traversed using a shortest route algorithm to obtain a heuristic solution. The advantages of the HN Procedure are: a) it generally yields better solutions than those obtained by application of the heuristics, and b) sensitivity analysis with different values of cycle time is possible without having to regenerate the network. The rationale for its effectiveness and its application to problems with paralleling are presented. Computational experience with the procedure on up to 50 task test problems is provided.     

Additive utilities with finite sets: Applications in the management sciences

A theory of additive utilities is discussed for cases where the set X, on which an individual's preference-indifference relation is defined, is a subset of the Cartesian product of n finite sets. A number of potential applications of additive utilities in decision making are presented.     

United States Internal Security Assistance to Pakistan1

Pakistan confronts numerous domestic security challenges including jihadist extremism, Sunni-Shi'a sectarian violence, drug trafficking, illegal commodity smuggling, endemic corruption, and systemic problems with the provision of justice and law enforcement. While much has been written about US military assistance to the Government of Pakistan (GOP) and the ever-evolving political relations between the two countries, basic questions of highest policy significance related to Pakistan's internal security have never been fully studied or considered. This essay begins to address these empirical lacunae. It first provides a comprehensive examination of Pakistan's internal security environment and the effectiveness of the GOP's criminal justice structures in dealing with these challenges. The paper then goes on to assess the impact and utility of the current suite of US law enforcement assistance in helping to fortify Pakistan's domestic security environment. The study raises a number of difficult questions pertinent to the long-term impact of this support, particularly in terms of its effect on fostering a viable, accountable and transparent system of civilian governance and policing.     

Algeria: A case study of insurgency in the new world order

Much of the literature on the decolonization of Namibia is set in a narrative mode and demonizes one or the other of the protagonists. This article, organized in a topical fashion, concerns the diplomatic, military, and economic facets of the Namibian war and draws upon the literature of comparable twentieth century colonial and anti-colonial wars in Algeria, Angola, Kenya, Mozambique, the Philippines, South Africa, Vietnam and Zimbabwe. It explores the changing discourse of legitimacy concerning independence for Namibia, the conduct of insurgency and counterinsurgency in the bush war, and economic aspects of that war.     

Traitor or patriot? Andrey Vlasov and the Russian liberation movement 1942–45

Catherine Andreyev, Vlasov and the Russian Liberation Movement: Soviet Reality and Emigre Theories. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1987. Pp.251; $34.50.

Sergej Froehlich, General Wlassow: Russen und Deutsche zwischen Hitler und Stalin (revised and edited by Edel von Freier). Koeln: Markus Verlag, 1987. Pp.403; DM.39.80.

Joachim Hoffmann, Die Geschichte der Wlassow‐Armes. Freiburg: Verlag Rombach, 1986. Pp.468; DM32.     

The political and military effectiveness of Commonwealth forces in Confrontation 1963–661

Low-intensity conflicts such as counterinsurgencies tend to be characterized by a large number of contacts. The sheer number and often inconclusive nature of these incidents makes it difficult to determine whether military operations are effective. This article uses Confrontation as a case study, first building a database of incidents (including contacts) and then analysing the database statistically to identify patterns. This process shows that the British Commonwealth security forces succeeded in controlling the number of incidents and the space to force ratio. They also dominated the contact battle. The article helps to account for the British Commonwealth success at the operational and tactical level.     

Negotiating regional security and arms control in the Middle East: the ACRS experience and beyond

In this contribution, Jones focuses initially on the experience of Arms Control and Regional Security (ACRS) and the reasons why this group stalled. The sources of tension that emerged in ACRS, and which ultimately led to its suspension, derived mainly from different views on the relationship between the nuclear and other issues in these talks, as well as the composition of ACRS and its role as a group of the multilateral track of the peace process. Jones emphasizes that regional security discussions in the Middle East must address multiple threats on multiple levels, and ACRS was never politically equipped to do so. Thus, despite the real, if limited, success of ACRS, any real security regime in the Middle East will be the product of a much more inclusive process which recognizes the essential importance of cooperatively addressing multiple security challenges, including those related to the problems of social and economic upheaval in the region. Jones concludes with an argument that the time may be ripe to embark on such a process in the wake of the war in Iraq and other far-reaching indicators of change in the region.     

Military spending and economic growth in South Africa

This paper undertakes an empirical analysis of the economic effects of military spending on the South African economy. It estimates a neo‐classical model common in the literature at the level of the macroeconomy and at the level of the manufacturing sector. An attempt is made to improve upon the model by allowing the data to determine the dynamic structure of the model through an ARDL procedure. No significant impact of military spending is found in aggregate, but there is a significant negative impact for the manufacturing sector. This suggests that the cuts in domestic military procurement that have occurred since 1989 could lead to improved economic performance in South Africa through their impact on the manufacturing sector.     

Book review

Jacques Fontanel, Les dépenses militaires et le désarmement, Editions Publisud, Paris, 1995, 136 pages.

Jean‐Paul Hébert ’Production d'armement — Mutilation du systéme français’, Paris 1995 La documentation française, 221 pages.