Bilateral phase-type distributions

In this article we define a class of distributions called bilateral phase type (BPH), and study its closure and computational properties. The class of BPH distributions is closed under convolution, negative convolution, and mixtures. The one-sided version of BPH, called generalized phase type (GPH), is also defined. The class of GPH distributions is strictly larger than the class of phase-type distributions introduced by Neuts, and is closed under convolution, negative convolution with nonnegativity condition, mixtures, and formation of coherent systems. We give computational schemes to compute the resulting distributions from the above operations and extend them to analyze queueing processes. In particular, we present efficient algorithms to compute the steady-state and transient waiting times in GPH/GPH/1 queues and a simple algorithm to compute the steady-state waiting time in M/GPH/1 queues.     

Attack and defense of ICBMs deceptively based in a number of identical areas

On-site verification of ICBMs in the context of an arms control agreement might involve a situation where an inspector would choose one or more of a number of identical areas to inspect and would have confidence that the other areas had the same characteristics. This article considers optimal attack and defense of missiles deceptively based in a number of identical areas. The attacker may allocate warheads across areas as he desires and uniformly within areas. The defender may allocate interceptors across areas as he desires and either uniformly or preferentially within areas. The effect of restricting the defender to uniform allocation across areas is explored for various assumptions. Robustness of surviving missiles with respect to the number of attacking warheads is studied. Results are presented for a wide range of cases.     

On failure modeling

A promising approach to failure modeling, in particular to developing failure-time distributions, is discussed. Under this approach, system state or wear and tear is modeled by an appropriately chosen random process—for example, a diffusion process—and the occurrences of fatal shocks are modeled by a Poisson process whose rate function is state dependent. The system is said to fail when either wear and tear accumulates beyond an acceptable or safe level or a fatal shock occurs. This approach has significant merit. First, it provides revealing new insights into most of the famous and frequently used lifetime distributions in reliability theory. Moreover, it suggests intuitively appealing ways for enhancing those standard models. Indeed, this approach provides a means of representing the underlying dynamics inherent in failure processes. Reasonable postulates for the dynamics of failure should lend credence to the prediction and estimation of reliability, maintainability, and availability. In other words, accuracy of representation could lead to better, more reliable prediction of failure.     

Additive utilities with finite sets: Applications in the management sciences

A theory of additive utilities is discussed for cases where the set X, on which an individual's preference-indifference relation is defined, is a subset of the Cartesian product of n finite sets. A number of potential applications of additive utilities in decision making are presented.     

De-Constructing the French Wars: Napoleon as Anti-Strategist

The Emperor Napoleon I is regarded as one of the greatest generals of all time and, as such, he has attracted an immense bibliography. In spite of this, there have been few studies of him as a strategist: instead, it is simply assumed that it was enough for the Emperor to have conducted an operation for it to have had a logical strategic goal. In this article, however, Napoleon is shown to have been primarily an opportunist, who was frequently guided by the needs of the moment and swayed from his course by circumstance, while it is further suggested that, even considered on their own merits, many of his decisions were faulty in the extreme.     

International Involvement in Restructuring and Creating Security Forces: The Case of Haiti

The controversy over banning landmines in the past decade has removed matters of military technical expertise to the purview of civilian interest groups. According to a Huntingtonian perspective, this could be an indicator of unhealthy civil-military relations. Evidence of this includes political leaders' disregard of senior military advice and the initiation of a program to develop landmine alternatives after having already committed to banning them. The desire to ban landmines may represent a pragmatic revision of pacifist attempts to ban warfare altogether. Because of the development of self-destructing or deactivating mines, the landmine ban movement intrudes on technical military matters without redeeming humanitarian value. This intrusion may have further ramifications for civil-military relations.     

United States Internal Security Assistance to Pakistan1

Pakistan confronts numerous domestic security challenges including jihadist extremism, Sunni-Shi'a sectarian violence, drug trafficking, illegal commodity smuggling, endemic corruption, and systemic problems with the provision of justice and law enforcement. While much has been written about US military assistance to the Government of Pakistan (GOP) and the ever-evolving political relations between the two countries, basic questions of highest policy significance related to Pakistan's internal security have never been fully studied or considered. This essay begins to address these empirical lacunae. It first provides a comprehensive examination of Pakistan's internal security environment and the effectiveness of the GOP's criminal justice structures in dealing with these challenges. The paper then goes on to assess the impact and utility of the current suite of US law enforcement assistance in helping to fortify Pakistan's domestic security environment. The study raises a number of difficult questions pertinent to the long-term impact of this support, particularly in terms of its effect on fostering a viable, accountable and transparent system of civilian governance and policing.