A stochastic network formulation for complex sequential processes

A network model incorporating stochastic features is considered. The model represents a complex sequential process where an object or system moves through a succession of states (nodes) and operating modes (classes) in the course of carrying out its function (fulfilling its purpose). Transitions between states and operating modes occur in a possibly random manner and require (consume) some resource in randomly varying amounts. We discuss the routing behavior and resource requirements of a typical object as it moves through (and eventually out of) the network. We then shift our focus from a single object and its odyssey to the network as a whole, where time is the resource and many objects are entering the network according to a possibly nonhomogeneous Poisson pattern; in this vein, we discuss the evolution of the network over time. Finally, we consider some applications of the formulation, and results.     

The Argentine dilemma: The Southern cone vis-à-vis the “contradictory duality of world reality”

The world has been faced with a contradiction since the end of the Cold War. On the one hand, there are factors that have led to complex multi-interdepen-dency; on the other, there is a process of global disintegration caused by those very same factors. It is in this context that the Southern Cone of South America has revealed a remarkable inequality in its balance of military power. If Argentina is taken as the center of gravity of both the sub-regions in the area, the Mercado Comun del Sur (Mercosur) and the Austral Cone, it is difficult to find a solution to this imbalance because the regional structure is experiencing the same contradictions as the world itself. What is clear is that the solution depends much more on the policies adopted by Argentina than those of Chile or Brazil. To solve this dilemma, Argentina needs credibility - something that requires fundamental internal change and substantial external support.     

Two-characteristic markov-type manpower flow models

A two-dimensional state space Markov Model of a Manpower System with special structure is analyzed. Examples are given from the military services. The probabilistic properties are discussed in detail with emphasis on computation. The basic equations of manpower stocks and flows are analyzed.     

Estimation of ordered parameters from k stochastically increasing distributions

There are given k (? 2) univariate cumulative distribution functions (c.d.f.'s) G(x; θ_i) indexed by a real-valued parameter θ_i, i=1,…, k. Assume that G(x; θ_i) is stochastically increasing in θ_i. In this paper interval estimation on the i^th smallest of the θ's and related topics are studied. Applications are considered for location parameter, normal variance, binomial parameter, and Poisson parameter.     

Stochastic duels with bursts

In this analysis we extend the theory of stochastic duels to include the situation where one of the contestants fires a single infinitely long burst at a fixed rate of fire and secondly where he fires fixed-length, fixed-rate of fire bursts randomly spaced. In both cases the opponent fires single rounds randomly spaced. Special cases and parameter effects are considered.     

Tree-search algorithms for quadratic assignment problems

Problems having the mathematical structure of a quadratic assignment problem are found in a diversity of contexts: by the economist in assigning a number of plants or indivisible operations to a number of different geographical locations; by the architect or indusatrial engineer in laying out activities, offices, or departments in a building; by the human engineer in arranging the indicators and controls in an operators control room; by the electronics engineer in laying out components on a backboard; by the computer systems engineer in arranging information in drum and disc storage; by the production scheduler in sequencing work through a production facility; and so on. In this paper we discuss several types of algorithms for solving such problems, presenting a unifying framework for some of the existing algorithms, and dcscribing some new algorithms. All of the algorithms discussed proceed first to a feasible solution and then to better and better feasible solutions, until ultimately one is discovered which is shown to be optimal.     

Dynamic multiattribute models for mixed manpower systems

This paper reviews a wide variety of manpower and personnel models of the goal programming variety. This is done from a strategy-oriented point of view addressing the problems of interest for immediate implementation as well as basic problems of manpower model research development. Particular emphasis in this paper is concerned with how analytical models can be brought to bear on the problems of combining military and civilian manpower into one management system. This includes a discussion of the computer support arrangements necessary to implement the models. First, we discuss an extension of multilevel models to provide an integrated approach to program planning which includes the dynamics of the manpower requirements-inventory relationships of mixed military-civilian manpower systems. Then, focus is given to some of the potential Navy applications particularly in terms of ways the outputs from the global multilevel model might be interfaced with assignment models for operational planning. The paper concludes with a discussion of static and dynamic multiattribute assignment models which operate on the individual man-job matching level. It is at this level of detail that dynamic mixed manpower systems might be constructed for use in equal employment opportunity planning and for local organization design studies.     

More ado about economic order quantities (EOQ)

This paper is concerned with the determination of explicit expressions for economic order quantities and reorder levels, such that the cost of ordering and holding inventory is minimized for specific backorder constraints. Holding costs are applied either to inventory position or on-hand inventory, and the backorder constraint is considered in terms of the total number of backorders per year or the average number of backorders at any point in time. Through the substitution of a new probability density function in place of the normal p.d.f., explicit expressions are determined for the economic order quantities and the reorder points. The resulting economic order quantities are independent of all backorder constraints. It is also concluded that under certain conditions, the minimization of ordering costs and inventory holding costs (applied to inventory position), subject to a backorder constraint, is equivalent in terms of reorder levels to minimization of the safety level dollar investment subject to the same backorder constraint.     

Markov chain analysis of a situation where cannibalization is the only repair activity

This paper considers a group of S identical aircraft, each of which is partitioned into K parts which fail exponentially. The only way in which a failed aircraft can be repaired is by cannibalizing its out-of-commission parts from other failed aircraft. The evolution of the number of good aircraft over time is governed by the transient behavior of an absorbing Markov chain. We can therefore study this behavior by matrix multiplication although the computational problem grows large for K ≥ 3. Some numerical results and some approximations are also provided.