舰船总体性能可靠性建模方法研究

分析了舰船总体性能可靠性问题的产生原因,将其分为2类.对于舰载设备本身存在可靠性问题而造成的,以航速可靠性为例,在舰船总体可靠性的背景下,借助相关数学工具进行了建模方法分析;对于外界随机因素影响而造成的,如横稳性的可靠性问题,则从分析外界随机因素与船体设计参数之间关系入手.初步建立了一套研究舰船总体性能可靠性问题的建模方法.实例计算表明,将所建模型用于分析舰船总体性能比常规方法具有明显的优越性.     

Book reviews

Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Global Order. By Harald Muller, David Fischer, and Wolfgang Kotter. SIPRI, Oxford, Oxford University Press, (1994) ISBN 0-19-329155-8, hardback, £25.00

Conventional Arms Control: Perspectives on Verification By Sergey Koulik and Richard Kokoski, SIPRI, Oxford University Press, (1994) ISBN 0-19-829149-3 and

Implementing the Comprehensive Test Ban: New Aspects of Definition, Organisation and Verification Edited by Eric Arnett, SIPRI Research Report No. 8, Oxford University Press, (1994) ISBN 019-829188-4

Military Technological Innovation and Stability in a Changing World: Politically assessing and Influencing Weapons Innovation and Military Research and Development, By Wim A. Smit, John Grin and Lev Voronkov (eds.) VU University Press, Amsterdam, Netherlands (1992), ISBN 90-5383-158-4.

Security, democracy, and development in US - Latin American relations. By Lars Schoultz, William C. Smith and Augusto Varas (eds.) Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick (USA), and London (UK) (1994). ISBN 1-56000-760-5     

Military Ethics and the Situationist Critique

Many contributors to military ethics from diverse locations and philosophical perspectives maintain that virtues are central to martial theory and practice. Yet several contemporary philosophers and psychologists have recently challenged the empirical adequacy of this perspective. Their challenge is known as the situationist critique, a version of which asserts that: (a) situational features rather than character traits such as virtues cause and explain human behavior, and (b) ethical theories and development programs are empirically inadequate to the extent that they incorporate virtues. In this paper, I assess the merit of this critique and consider some implications of my assessment for military practitioners and theorists.     

Let’s make a (nuclear) deal: Bargaining,credibility, and the third offset strategy

An institutional perspective on nuclear deterrence cooperation within alliances has the potential to fundamentally reorient how we think about analyzing nuclear and deterrence decision-making between nuclear patrons and non-nuclear clients. It comes at a time when the presidency of Donald Trump is sure to test many of the core claims and assumptions in security studies, especially relating to bargaining and credibility within alliances. This article surveys questions that will be core to the research agenda involving alliance institutions and nuclear weapons during the Trump presidency and beyond.     

Measuring hard power: China’s economic growth and military capacity

China’s rapid economic growth is facilitating massive increases in its military spending and causing increased security concerns in Asia and the Western Pacific. But there is uncertainty over how large China’s military spending is relative to other countries, or how fast it is growing in real terms. We address this issue by deriving a relative military cost price index based on the relative unit costs of inputs. We find that China’s real military spending is much larger than suggested by exchange rate comparisons, and even larger than standard purchasing power parity comparisons. We also find, however, that the real growth of China’s military spending has been smaller than conventionally thought. This is due to rapidly growing wages in China and the large share of personnel in China’s military budget.     

Exploiting self‐canceling demand point aggregation error for some planar rectilinear median location problems

When solving location problems in practice it is quite common to aggregate demand points into centroids. Solving a location problem with aggregated demand data is computationally easier, but the aggregation process introduces error. We develop theory and algorithms for certain types of centroid aggregations for rectilinear 1‐median problems. The objective is to construct an aggregation that minimizes the maximum aggregation error. We focus on row‐column aggregations, and make use of aggregation results for 1‐median problems on the line to do aggregation for 1‐median problems in the plane. The aggregations developed for the 1‐median problem are then used to construct approximate n‐median problems. We test the theory computationally on n‐median problems (n ≥ 1) using both randomly generated, as well as real, data. Every error measure we consider can be well approximated by some power function in the number of aggregate demand points. Each such function exhibits decreasing returns to scale. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 614–637, 2003.     

不同流量的复杂保障网络抗毁性仿真分析

通过引入流量强度指数和流量分布指数,建立了不同网络流量下的复杂保障网络级联失效抗毁性模型。基于该模型比较分析了无标度网络、随机网络和复杂保障网络在不同流量强度和流量分布下对单个节点的随机失效和故意攻击的抗毁性。结果表明:复杂保障网络的抗毁性随着流量强度的增加急剧下降。此外,流量分布对复杂保障网络的抗毁性也有显著影响。     

基于GAHP的作战决策方案优选模型

优选科学合理的作战方案,是指挥员作战决策的关键。根据作战实际情况,运用五标度和六标度法量化了各因素对作战决策方案的影响指标,建立了基于多人层次分析法(GAHP)理论的优选作战决策方案数学模型,以从方案中选出作战效益最好、付出代价最小且最具可行性的方案,作为决策的具体行动依据。最后通过实例验证了模型的可操作性。GAHP方法能很好地运用不同决策者对方案的不同评价,形成最终决策,对作战指挥决策有一定的现实意义。