Bayesian inference for a Lanchester type combat model

We undertake inference for a stochastic form of the Lanchester combat model. In particular, given battle data, we assess the type of battle that occurred and whether or not it makes any difference to the number of casualties if an army is attacking or defending. Our approach is Bayesian and we use modern computational techniques to fit the model. We illustrate our method using data from the Ardennes campaign. We compare our results with previous analyses of these data by Bracken and Fricker. Our conclusions are somewhat different to those of Bracken. Where he suggests that a linear law is appropriate, we show that the logarithmic or linear‐logarithmic laws fit better. We note however that the basic Lanchester modeling assumptions do not hold for the Ardennes data. Using Fricker's modified data, we show that although his “super‐logarithmic” law fits best, the linear, linear‐logarithmic, and logarithmic laws cannot be ruled out. We suggest that Bayesian methods can be used to make inference for battles in progress. We point out a number of advantages: Prior information from experts or previous battles can be incorporated; predictions of future casualties are easily made; more complex models can be analysed using stochastic simulation techniques. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 541–558, 2000     

Scheduling customer arrivals to a stochastic service system

An efficient algorithm for determining the optimal arrival schedule for customers in a stochastic service system is developed. All customers arrive exactly when scheduled, and service times are modeled as iid Erlang random variables. Costs are incurred at a fixed rate per unit of time each customer waits for service, and an additional cost is incurred for every unit of time the server operates beyond a scheduled closing time. The objective is to minimize total operating cost. This type of problem arises in many operational contexts including transportation, manufacturing, and appointment‐based services. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 549–559, 1999     

Forecast horizons for the discounted dynamic lot-size problem allowing speculative motive

This article considers the dynamic lot-size problem under discounting, allowing speculative motive for holding inventory. A variable rolling-horizon procedure is presented, which, under certain regularity conditions, is guaranteed to generate an infinite-horizon optimal-production plan. We also discuss a fixed rolling-horizon procedure which provides a production plan that achieves an infinite-horizon cost within a user-specified tolerance ϵ of optimality. The fixed-horizon length T* needed in this procedure is given in terms of a closed-form formula that is independent of specific forecasted demands. We also present computational results for problems with a range of cost parameters and demand characteristics.     

Operating characteristics of a two-echelon inventory system for repairable and consumable items under batch ordering and shipment policy

In this article we have generalized previous models on multiechelon recoverable inventory systems to cover the cases of batch ordering and shipment policy, and when items can either be repaired or condemned. The batch ordering and shipment policy is appropriate when the setup cost for shipment and order and/or the demand rates of the items are relatively high. The operating characteristics of such a system have been studied. Specifically, the probability distribution of backorder levels at the bases are analyzed for different repair-time distributions. An approximation scheme is proposed for this distribution, and is evaluated using extensive simulation results. The results indicate that the scheme is very effective in providing near-optimal stocking levels in such a system.     

The case for Bush revisionism: Reevaluating the legacy of America’s 43rd president

This article reassesses the foreign policy legacy of George W. Bush in light of the emerging historical record of his administration. We conclude that, whereas Bush’s foreign policy was in widespread disrepute when he left office in 2009, that reputation is likely to improve – perhaps significantly – in the coming years. We identify six particular arguments that lend credence to an emerging ‘Bush revisionism.’ To be clear, we do not necessarily argue that the balance sheet on Bush’s foreign policy was positive, but the arguments presented here are likely to generate a more sympathetic and favorable historical assessment of Bush’s presidency over time.     

一类二阶微分方程Poincaré分岔极限环的不存在性

讨论一类二阶微分方程x¨+εf(x,x.)x.+g(x)=0的Poincar分岔极限环的不存在性,利用一阶Mel’nikov函数直接从整体上进行分析讨论,得出了若干充分条件和判别准则。     

广义Liénard方程Poincaré分岔极限环的唯一性和不存在性

讨论了一类广义Linard方程x¨+f1(x)x.2+εf2(x)x.+g(x)=0的Poincar分岔极限环的唯一性和不存在性。将不对Abel积分进行分项,而是利用一阶Mel′nikov函数直接从整体上进行分析讨论,得出了若干判别准则和充分条件。     

防空导弹防热综合设计研究

介绍了防空导弹在研制过程中出现的各类热防护与热设计问题,主要包括气动热环境预测、壁面温度分布计算、舱内仪器设备热分析等,并提出了热环境-热防护-舱内环境耦合设计理念、工程实现方法和途径,给出了一些典型算例的研究对比结果,阐述了目前针对这些问题研究的进展和取向,提出了今后应重点研究和解决的问题.