Some two-on-two homogeneous stochastic combats

In this article we consider two versions of two-on-two homogeneous stochastic combat and develop expressions, in each case, for the state probabilities. The models are natural generalizations of the exponential Lanchester square law model. In the first version, a marksman whose target is killed resumes afresh the killing process on a surviving target; in the second version, the marksman whose target is killed merely uses up his remaining time to a kill on a surviving target. Using the state probabilities we then compute such important combat measures as (1) the mean and variance of the number of survivors as they vary with time for each of the sides, (2) the win probabilities for each of the sides, and (3) the mean and variance of the battle duration time. As an application, computations were made for the specific case of a gamma (2) interfiring time random variable for each side and the above combat measures were compared with the appropriate exponential and deterministic Lanchester square law approximations. The latter two are shown to be very poor approximations in this case.     

Floor layouts using a multifacility location model

A procedure for obtaining a facilities scatter diagram within a rectangular boundary is developed using a multifacility location model. This method gives favorable computational results and has the advantage over other scatter diagram methods of being able to accommodate fixed facility locations. Examples illustrate how this method can be used by a designer/analyst either as a one-step algorithm or iteratively to build a layout.     

Multilinear extensions and quotients of simple games

Studied here is the problem of evaluating the formation of coalitions in cooperative games by considering its internal and external effects. Our analysis is based upon a formal theory of the quotient game and the use of multilinear extensions to compute the Shapley value and the coalitional value. When it applies to simple games, a series of interesting results is obtained. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

The evolution of a selection system

The article is a case study. It describes the initialization and subsequent modifications of the selection process used for the annual Award for Excellence in Teaching at the Naval Postgraduate School (NPS). The method treats highly unbalanced data and utilizes some exploratory data analysis techniques in interesting ways. It leads to a defensible choice for a winner in a very messy setting. The award designates a faculty member as “teacher of the year” and includes a stipend of substantial value. The recipient is chosen by a committee which reviews objective information summarized from ballots submitted by franchised voters. The issues encountered have some general content and the handling of a number of them may have broader interest. ©John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

1 This article is a US Government work and, as such, is in the public domain in the United States of America.

     

Simulating nonhomogeneous poisson processes with proportional intensities

The purpose of this research is to investigate simulation algorithms for nonhomogeneous Poisson processes with proportional intensities. Two algorithmic approaches are studied: inversion and thinning. Motivated by industrial practices, the covariate vector involved in the simulation is permitted to change after every event (or observation). The algorithms are extended to permit the simulation of general nonhomogeneous Poisson processes with possible discontinuities both in baseline intensity and covariate vector. This latter extension can be used to facilitate a wide range of failure situations that can arise with repairable systems. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Cost analysis and extension of a simple maintenance-scheduling heuristic

Practitioners of maintenance scheduling sometimes use a simple analytic formula, derived based on inspection scheduling, as a heuristic to determine the length of the preventive maintenance period. The sensitivity of this heuristic solution is analyzed and the cost penalties are calculated compared to the exact solution that utilizes the lifetime distribution in the derivation of the optimal preventive maintenance period. A simple extension of the heuristic is suggested to improve the approximation with a slightly increased computational effort. The sensitivity and cost analysis of the improved heuristic are discussed as well. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Setting military reenlistment bonuses

The United States military frequently has difficulty retaining enlisted personnel beyond their initial enlistment. A bonus program within each service, called a Selective Reenlistment Bonus (SRB) program, seeks to enhance reenlistments and thus reduce personnel shortages in critical military occupational specialties (MOSs). The amount of bonus is set by assigning “SRB multipliers” to each MOS. We develop a nonlinear integer program to select multipliers which minimize a function of deviations from desired reenlistment targets. A Lagrangian relaxation of a linearized version of the integer program is used to obtain lower bounds and feasible solutions. The best feasible solution, discovered in a coordinate search of the Lagrangian function, is heuristically improved by apportioning unexpended funds. For large problems a heuristic variable reduction is employed to speed model solution. U.S. Army data and requirements for FY87 yield a 0-1 integer program with 12,992 binary variables and 273 constraints, which is solved within 0.00002% of optimality on an IBM 3033AP in less than 1.7 seconds. More general models with up to 463,000 binary variables are solved, on average, to within 0.009% of optimality in less than 1.8 minutes. The U.S. Marine Corps has used a simpler version of this model since 1986. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

The conditional p-center problem in the plane

An algorithm is given for the conditional p-center problem, namely, the optimal location of one or more additional facilities in a region with given demand points and one or more preexisting facilities. The solution dealt with here involves the minimax criterion and Euclidean distances in two-dimensional space. The method used is a generalization to the present conditional case of a relaxation method previously developed for the unconditional p-center problems. Interestingly, its worst-case complexity is identical to that of the unconditional version, and in practice, the conditional algorithm is more efficient. Some test problems with up to 200 demand points have been solved. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Mirror,mirror on the wall,who is the most offensive of them all? – Explaining the offensive bias in military tactical thinking

This article explores why the offensive predominates military tactical thinking. With survey results showing an offensive bias among 60 per cent of senior Swedish officers and as many as 80 per cent in the case of the army, it is clear that this is not just a problem of the past but is equally relevant today. The article asks why there is a tendency to perceive and understand offensive tactics as the preferred choice and the way to conduct battle that should be encouraged and preferred. Drawing on existing research and the findings of a pilot study, ten propositions for why the offensive bias exists are tested using a mixed-method approach. Based on the findings, the article develops a model to understand why the offensive dominates military tactical thinking. It is found that the two key constitutive factors behind the offensive bias are military culture and education. These factors most directly and profoundly influence an officer’s identity, perceptions, and thinking. Military culture and education, in turn, work as a prism for four other factors: military history, the theory and principles of war, doctrine and TTPs, and psychological factors.     

Metastases: Exploring the impact of foreign fighters in conflicts abroad

This article examines the historical impact of foreign fighters and how the international community has sought to counter this threat. It argues that foreign fighters have contributed significantly to the metastasis of Salafi-jihadism over the past 30 years. They have globalized local conflicts. They have brought advanced skills to battlefields. Further, the logistics infrastructure built by foreign fighters has allowed Salafi-jihadism to expand rapidly. The challenge for security officials today is how to prevent the foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq from expanding the threat of Salafi-jihadism further. To inform this effort, this article derives lessons learned from past efforts against Arab Afghans in Bosnia (1992–1995) and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s foreign volunteers in Iraq (2003–2008).