Viability analysis: A formulation aid for all classes of network models

Nonviable network models have edges which are forced to zero flow simply by the pattern of interconnection of the nodes. The original nonviability diagnosis algorithm [4] is extended here to cover all classes of network models, including pure, generalized, pure processing, nonconserving processing, and generalized processing. The extended algorithm relies on the conversion of all network forms to a pure processing form. Efficiency improvements to the original algorithm are also presented.     

Simulation of stochastic activity networks using path control variates

This article details several procedures for using path control variates to improve the accuracy of simulation-based point and confidence-interval estimators of the mean completion time of a stochastic activity network (SAN). Because each path control variate is the duration of the corresponding directed path in the network from the source to the sink, the vector of selected path controls has both a known mean and a known covariance matrix. This information is incorporated into estimation procedures for both normal and nonnormal responses. To evaluate the performance of these procedures experimentally, we examine the bias, variance, and mean square error of the controlled point estimators as well as the average half-length and coverage probability of the corresponding confidence-interval estimators for a set of SANs in which the following characteristics are systematically varied: (a) the size of the network (number of nodes and arcs); (b) the topology of the network; (c) the percentage of activities with exponentially distributed durations; and (d) the relative dominance of the critical path. The experimental results show that although large improvements in accuracy can be achieved with some of these procedures, the confidence-interval estimators for normal responses may suffer serious loss of coverage probability in some applications.     

Scheduling workers in a constricted area

A generalization of the equi-partitioning problem, termed the 2D-Partition Problem, is formulated. The motivation is an aircraft maintenance scheduling problem with the following characteristics. The complete maintenance overhaul of a single aircraft requires the completion of some 350 tasks. These tasks require a varying number of technicians working at the same time. For large subsets of these 350 tasks, the constraining resource is physical space—tasks must be completed in a physical space of limited size such as the cockpit. Furthermore, there is no precedence relationship among the tasks. For each subset, the problem is to schedule the tasks to minimize makespan. Let m denote the maximum number of technicians that can work at the same time in the physical area under consideration. We present optimization algorithms for m = 2 and 3. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

On the number of games played in a best of (2n – 1) series

Let p(⩾0.5) denote the probability that team A beats B in a single game. The series continues until either A or B wins n games. Assuming that these games are independent replications, we study some features of the distribution of X_n, the number of games played in the series. It is shown that X_n is unimodal, has an IFRA distribution, and is stochastically decreasing in p. Close approximations to its mode, mean, and variance are given. Finally, it is shown that the maximum-likelihood estimator of p based on X_n is unique.     

Estimation and prediction in a semi-markov model for evasive vehicle movement along a fixed path

In Turner and Holmes [8] a model for evasive vehicle movement along a fixed track is developed within the mathematical framework of a two-state semi-Markov process. They derive a number of analytical properties of the model. In this article we address problems concerning the estimation of parameters in the model and the construction of data-based prediction equations.     

Sole sourcing versus dual sourcing under stochastic demands and lead times

The use of a single vendor for each inventoried item is usually assumed in most of the inventory models. However, there are situations where the use of more than one vendor should be considered, especially when lead times are stochastic. This research presents a theoretical investigation of the effect of cost structures on the relative performance of sole-sourcing versus dual-sourcing inventory control policies. We show that except for cases where the ordering cost is high, the lead-time variability is low, or the customer service level is low, dual sourcing performs better than sole sourcing under the normally distributed demand and shifted-exponential lead times. Moreover, the computational results indicate the dual sourcing provides a better service level than sole sourcing at the optimal solutions, and that dual sourcing results in larger order quantities than sole sourcing, which suggests that attractive quantity discounts may not be in jeopardy when dual sourcing is employed. Finally, because it is generally known that multiple sourcing can enhance the competition among suppliers, material managers should consider splitting purchase orders when two equally qualified suppliers are available. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Clinical Characterization of Insomnia among Veterans with PTSD: Identifying Risk Factors for Diagnosis and Treatment with Sedative-Hypnotics

Abstract

Insomnia is prevalent among Veterans with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), it exacerbates PTSD symptoms, and it contributes to impaired functioning and quality of life. To improve treatment outcomes, it is important to identify risk factors for insomnia and sedative-hypnotic use. Classification and regression trees and logistic regression models were used to identify variables associated with insomnia or sedative-hypnotic use. Key findings include low insomnia diagnosis rates (3.5–5.6%) and high rates of sedative-hypnotics (44.2–49.0%). Younger Veterans and those without a breathing-related sleep disorder (BRSD) were more likely to receive an insomnia diagnosis. Veterans with greater service connection and those with an alcohol/substance use disorder were more likely to be prescribed sedative-hypnotics. Interaction terms may have identified potential groups at risk of being under-diagnosed with insomnia (i.e. non-black Veterans with psychiatric co-morbidity, black Veterans without psychiatric co-morbidity) as well as groups at risk for sedative-hypnotic use (i.e. younger Veterans without BRSD). In sum, Veterans with PTSD have high rates of sedative-hypnotic use despite minimal evidence they are effective. This is counter to recommendations indicating behavioral interventions are the first-line treatment. Policy changes are needed to reduce use of sedative-hypnotics and increase access to behavioral insomnia interventions.     

The effects of model parameter deviations on the variance of a linearly filtered time series

We consider a general linear filtering operation on an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series. The variance of the filter output, which is an important quantity in many applications, is not known with certainty because it depends on the true ARMA parameters. We derive an expression for the sensitivity (i.e., the partial derivative) of the output variance with respect to deviations in the model parameters. The results provide insight into the robustness of many common statistical methods that are based on linear filtering and also yield approximate confidence intervals for the output variance. We discuss applications to time series forecasting, statistical process control, and automatic feedback control of industrial processes. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

The Randomization of Terrorist Attacks

The purpose of this article is to explore the economic theoretical foundations of the idea that rational terrorist organizations deliberately randomize their attacks (by type, timing, location, and targets) to generate uncertainty and intimidation. A choice theoretic framework is applied to the analysis of the terrorist organization's behavior to determine whether welfare (utility) gains from the randomization of terrorist attacks are plausible and feasible. The randomization of attacks can appear to promise higher amounts of political influence for each resource input but it turns out that randomization cannot manufacture a situation where higher amounts of political influence are obtained for each resource input.The results imply that, rather than randomization and instability, the rational terrorist organization is more likely to prefer stability. The findings and implications provide a theoretical explanation for the non-randomness of terrorist attacks.Thismay be one small step towards explaining the patterns – non-randomness – in the time-series of terrorist incidents.