“What is dear to you?” Survey of beliefs regarding protection of critical infrastructure against terrorism

Up to the present, there is only very little research on how the population perceives terrorism and its threats, even though support from the population is crucial for effective counterterrorism. By eliciting beliefs and subjecting them to content analyses, six factors were found that determine the protection worthiness of a target in the people's view: the potential damage to “people,” “symbolism,” “economy,” “politics,” “nature,” and “image/publicity.” These empirically found factors are in line with factors specified by terrorist target selection models. They differ in the strength of their cognitive representation among participants and, thus, their subjective importance to the people. The first three factors are shared among all participants, whereas the latter ones could only be found in a part of the participant sample. People's judgments of the targets' protection worthiness differ substantially from their judgments of the targets' attractiveness to terrorists, even though the same factors seem to be involved. This study offers an insight into the people's mental model about protection worthiness of targets. Together with classical risk analysis and knowledge about terrorists, these results can form a basis for setting up a holistic scheme for critical infrastructure protection.     

Changing the paradigm: Simulation,now a method of first resort

Decades ago, simulation was famously characterized as a “method of last resort,” to which analysts should turn only “when all else fails.” In those intervening decades, the technologies supporting simulation—computing hardware, simulation‐modeling paradigms, simulation software, design‐and‐analysis methods—have all advanced dramatically. We offer an updated view that simulation is now a very appealing option for modeling and analysis. When applied properly, simulation can provide fully as much insight, with as much precision as desired, as can exact analytical methods that are based on more restrictive assumptions. The fundamental advantage of simulation is that it can tolerate far less restrictive modeling assumptions, leading to an underlying model that is more reflective of reality and thus more valid, leading to better decisions. Published 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 293–303, 2015     

Influence of a liquid-filled compartment structure on the incoming shaped charge jet stability

Liquid-filled compartment structure consists of a bulk steel plate with matrix blind holes which are filled with liquid and a steel front plate to seal up the liquid with rings and bolts.The liquid-filled compart-ment structure can resist the shaped charge warhead effectively.This paper presents experimental and theoretical investigations of the penetration ability of the residual shaped charge jet emerging from the liquid-filled compartment structure after the penetration process at different impact angles.On the basis of shock wave propagation theory,the influence of the liquid-filled compartment structure on jet sta-bility is analysed.The interferences of the liquid backflow caused by a reflected shock wave and a back plate on jet stability under different impact angles are also examined.In addition,the range of the disturbed velocity segments of the jet at different impact angles and the penetration ability of the re-sidual jet are obtained.A theoretical model is validated against the experimental penetration depths.     

Flexibility and complexity in periodic distribution problems

In this paper, we explore trade‐offs between operational flexibility and operational complexity in periodic distribution problems. We consider the gains from operational flexibility in terms of vehicle routing costs and customer service benefits, as well as the costs of operational complexity in terms of modeling, solution methods, and implementation challenges for drivers and customers. The period vehicle routing problem (PVRP) is a variation of the classic vehicle routing problem in which delivery routes are constructed for a period of time; the PVRP with service choice (PVRP‐SC) extends the PVRP to allow service (visit) frequency to become a decision of the model. For the periodic distribution problems represented by PVRP and PVRP‐SC, we introduce operational flexibility levers and a set of quantitative measures to evaluate the trade‐offs between flexibility and complexity. We develop a Tabu Search heuristic to incorporate a range of operational flexibility options. We analyze the potential value and the increased operational complexity of the flexibility levers. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

Properties of the geometric and related processes

Some properties of the geometric process are studied along with those of a related process which we propose to call the α‐series process. It is shown that the expected number of counts at an arbitrary time does not exist for the decreasing geometric process. The decreasing version of the α‐series process does have a finite expected number of counts, under certain conditions. This process also has the same advantages of tractability as the geometric process; it exhibits some properties which may make it a useful complement to the increasing geometric process. In addition, it may be fit to observed data as easily as the geometric process. Applications in reliability and stochastic scheduling are considered in order to demonstrate the versatility of the alternative model. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005     

Tabular aids for fitting weibull moment estimates

Moment estimators for the parameters of the Weibull distribution are considered in the context of analysis of field data. The data available are aggregated, with individual failure times not recorded. In this case, the complexity of the likelihood function argues against the use of maximum-likelihood estimation, particularly for relatively large sets of data, and moment estimators are a reasonable alternative. In this article, we derive the asymptotic covariance matrix of the moment estimators, and provide listings for BASIC computer programs which generate tables useful for calculation of the estimates as well as for estimating the asymptotic covariance matrix using aggregated data.     

Two-characteristic markov-type manpower flow models

A two-dimensional state space Markov Model of a Manpower System with special structure is analyzed. Examples are given from the military services. The probabilistic properties are discussed in detail with emphasis on computation. The basic equations of manpower stocks and flows are analyzed.     

AN ALGORITHM FOR THE SEGREGATED STORAGE PROBLEM

The segregated storage problem involves the optimal distribution of products among compartments with the restriction that only one product may be stored in each compartment. The storage capacity of each compartment, the storage demand for each product, and the linear cost of storing one unit of a product in a given compartment are specified. The problem is reformulated as a large set-packing problem, and a column generation scheme is devised to solve the associated linear programming problem. In case of fractional solutions, a branch and bound procedure is utilized. Computational results are presented.     

A duel complicated by false targets and uncertainty as to opponent type

An attacker, being one of two types, initiates an attack at some time in the interval [-T, 0]. The a priori probabilities of each type are known. As time elapses the defender encounters false targets which occur according to a known Poisson process and which can be properly classified with known probability. The detection and classification probabilities for each type attacker are given. If the defender responds with a weapon at the time of attack, he survives with a probability which depends on the number of weapons in his possession and on attacker type. If he does not respond, his survival probability is smaller. These probabilities are known, as well as the current number of weapons in the defender's possession. They decrease as the number of weapons decreases. The payoff is the defender's survival probability. An iterative system of first-order differential equations is derived whose unique solution V₁(t),V₂(t),…,V_k(t) is shown to be the value of the game at time t, when the defender has 1, 2,…, k,… weapons, respectively. The optimal strategies are determined. Limiting results are obtained as t→-∞, while the ratio of the number of weapons to the expected number of false targets remaining is held constant.