Security assurances and proliferation risks in the Trump administration

Comments that Donald Trump made while campaigning to be U.S. president have raised concerns that his administration will pull back from U.S. alliance commitments and encourage countries such as Japan and South Korea to acquire nuclear arms. The new article by Frühling and O’Neil outlines an institutional framework that can be helpful in assessing the risks that Trump administration policies will lead to nuclear proliferation. An institutional perspective shows that important elements of U.S. security assurances will continue to function, and this reduces the chances that President Trump’s actions or statements will trigger proliferation by U.S. allies. The greatest risk to global non-proliferation efforts posed by a Trump administration in fact lies elsewhere, in the possibility that President Trump will seek to abrogate the Iran nuclear deal.     

The US NATO and military burden sharing: post-Cold War accomplishments and future prospects

NATO burden sharing has become an especially timely issue in the past several years as a result of a number of factors, including Russian annexation of Crimea and destabilization of eastern Ukraine in 2014. This article argues that alliance unity among the great democracies of Europe and North America is indispensable to peace and stability on the Eurasian continent. A fractured NATO, and especially, a large divide in purposes or commitments as between the United States and its European security partners, invites aggression and the possibility of inadvertent escalation. Past successes and failures in US-involved multinational peace and stability operations, within and outside of Europe, show that mission accomplishment requires give and take, including the occasional acceptance of unequal costs and benefits among the members, in order to achieve peace and security objectives.     

An algorithm for optimal shipments with given frequencies

This article deals with the problem of minimizing the transportation and inventory cost associated with the shipment of several products from a source to a destination, when a finite set of shipping frequencies is available. A mixed-integer programming model—shown to be NP-hard—is formulated for that problem. The computational complexity of some similar models applied to different problems is also investigated. In particular, whereas the capacitated plant location problem with operational cost in product form is NP-hard, the simple plant location problem with the same characteristics can be solved in polynomial time. A branch-and-bound algorithm is finally worked out, and some computational results are presented. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

A model for critical crack size estimation in fatigue failure of gun barrels

With repeated firing, fatigue cracks are produced in a gun barrel, and the barrel is no longer useful when a crack reaches a critical size. The initial crack size and the critical crack size, as well as the number of firings producing the critical crack size, may be considered as random variables. Assuming a proportional damage model for crack growth, a method for estimating the critical crack size distribution is presented. From these results, an estimate of the barrel life, or the residual barrel life once a crack of a given size is measured, can be obtained.     

Gittins-index heuristics for research planning

The classical work of Gittins, which resulted in the celebrated index result, had applications to research planning as an important part of its motivation. However, research planning problems often have features that are not accommodated within Gittins's original framework. These include precedence constraints on the task set, influence between tasks, stopping or investment options and routes to success in which some tasks do not feature. We consider three classes of Markovian decision models for research planning, each of which has all of these features. Gittins-index heuristics are proposed and are assessed both analytically and computationally. They perform impressively. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

The simple multiserver loss system with time-varying intensities

For the loss system with time-varying intensities and a finite number of identical servers we derive formulas for the expected number of refused customers in a given time interval and for the expected number of servers busy at a given time instant. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Cost allocation and communication

This article considers a special class of cost allocation problems, where the communication possibilities among the agents are restricted. Integral formulas are derived for two allocation rules: The Myerson value and the position value. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Optimizing the US Navy's combat logistics force

We study how changes to the composition and employment of the US Navy combat logistic force (CLF) influence our ability to supply our navy worldwide. The CLF consists of about 30 special transport ships that carry ship and aircraft fuel, ordnance, dry stores, and food, and deliver these to client combatant ships underway, making it possible for our naval forces to operate at sea for extended periods. We have modeled CLF operations to evaluate a number of transforming initiatives that simplify its operation while supporting an even larger number of client ships for a greater variety of missions. Our input is an employment schedule for navy battle groups of ships operating worldwide, extending over a planning horizon of 90–180 days. We show how we use optimization to advise how to sustain these ships. We have used this model to evaluate new CLF ship designs, advise what number of ships in a new ship class would be needed, test concepts for forward at‐sea logistics bases in lieu of conventional ports, demonstrate the effects of changes to operating policy, and generally try to show whether and how the CLF can support planned naval operations. Published 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2008     

Probability inequalities via negative dependence for random variables conditioned on order statistics

Distributions are studied which arise by considering independent and identically distributed random variables conditioned on events involving order statistics. It is shown that these distributions are negatively dependent in a very strong sense. Furthermore, bounds are found on the distribution functions. The conditioning events considered occur naturally in reliability theory as the time to system failure for k-out-of-n systems. An application to systems formed with “second-hand” components is given.     

Modeling the performance of a scanning radio communications sensor

A model which allows the prediction of long-term average report rates against an array of radio emitters by a scanning sensor is presented. The model is based on Markov renewal theory.