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41.
Products with short life cycles are becoming increasingly common in many industries, such as the personal computer (PC) and mobile phone industries. Traditional forecasting methods and inventory policies can be inappropriate for forecasting demand and managing inventory for a product with a short life cycle because they usually do not take into account the characteristics of the product life cycle. This can result in inaccurate forecasts, high inventory cost, and low service levels. Besides, many forecasting methods require a significant demand history, which is available only after the product has been sold for some time. In this paper, we present an adaptive forecasting algorithm with two characteristics. First, it uses structural knowledge on the product life cycle to model the demand. Second, it combines knowledge on the demand that is available prior to the launch of the product with actual demand data that become available after the introduction of the product to generate and update demand forecasts. Based on the forecasting algorithm, we develop an optimal inventory policy. Since the optimal inventory policy is computationally expensive, we propose three heuristics and show in a numerical study that one of the heuristics generates near‐optimal solutions. The evaluation of our approach is based on demand data from a leading PC manufacturer in the United States, where the forecasting algorithm has been implemented. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004. 相似文献
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The calculation of the exact reliability of complex systems is a difficult and tedious task. Consequently simple approximating techniques have great practical value. The hazard transform of a system is an invertible transformation of its reliability function which is convenient and useful in both applied and theoretical reliability work. A simple calculus for finding an approximate hazard transform for systems formed by series and parallel combinations of components is extended so that it can be used for any coherent system. The extended calculus is shown to lead to conservative approximations. A first order version of the extended calculus is also discussed. This method of approximation is even more simple to use, but is not always conservative. Examples of its application indicate that it is capable of giving quite accurate results. 相似文献
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A complete analysis and explicit solution is presented for the problem of linear fractional programming with interval programming constraints whose matrix is of full row rank. The analysis proceeds by simple transformation to canonical form, exploitation of the Farkas-Minkowki lemma and the duality relationships which emerge from the Charnes-Cooper linear programming equivalent for general linear fractional programming. The formulations as well as the proofs and the transformations provided by our general linear fractional programming theory are here employed to provide a substantial simplification for this class of cases. The augmentation developing the explicit solution is presented, for clarity, in an algorithmic format. 相似文献
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We present an air-defense engagement model to counter an attack by multiple antiship missiles, assuming perfect kill assessment. In this model, the probability of shooting down all incoming missiles is maximized. A generating function is employed to produce an algorithm which is used to evaluate the outcomes. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 687–697, 1997 相似文献
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Estimating the performance of an automatic target recognition (ATR) system in terms of its probability of successfully identifying a target involves extensive image collection and processing, which can be very time‐consuming and expensive. Therefore, we investigate the Wald sequential test for the difference in two proportions as a sample size‐reducing alternative to ranking and selection procedures and confidence intervals. An analysis of the test parameters leads to a practical methodology for implementing the Wald test for fairly comparing two systems, based on specific experimental goals. The test is also extended with the modified, sequentially rejective Bonferroni procedure for the multiple pairwise comparison of more than two systems. Two sampling schemes for different experimental goals are also discussed. The test methodology is applied to actual data to compare different configurations of a specific ATR system, with the results demonstrating that the modified Wald sequential procedure is a useful alternative to comparing proportions with confidence intervals, particularly when data are expensive. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 357–371, 1999 相似文献
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H. W. Kuhn 《海军后勤学研究》2005,52(1):7-21
This paper has been presented with the Best Paper Award. It will appear in print in Volume 52, No. 1, February 2005. 相似文献