Confidence bounds and propagation of uncertainties in system availability and reliability computations

This paper develops bounds on the uncertainties in system availabilities or reliabilities which have been computed from structural (series, parallel, etc.) relations among uncertain subsystem availabilities or reliabilities. It is assumed that the highly available (reliable) subsystems have been tested or simulated to determine their unavailabilities (unreliabilities) to within some small percentages of uncertainty. It is shown that series, parallel and r out of n structures which are nominally highly available will have unavailability uncertainties whose percentages errors are of the same order as the subsystem uncertainties. Thus overall system analysis errors, even for large systems, are of the same order of magnitude as the uncertainties in the component probabilities. Both systematic (bias type) uncertainties and independent random uncertainties are considered.     

A network isolation algorithm

A set of edges D called an isolation set, is said to isolate a set of nodes R from an undirected network if every chain between the nodes in R contains at least one edge from the set D. Associated with each edge of the network is a positive cost. The isolation problem is concerned with finding an isolation set such that the sum of its edge costs is a minimum. This paper formulates the problem of determining the minimal cost isolation as a 0–1 integer linear programming problem. An algorithm is presented which applies a branch and bound enumerative scheme to a decomposed linear program whose dual subproblems are minimal cost network flow problems. Computational results are given. The problem is also formulated as a special quadratic assignment problem and an algorithm is presented that finds a local optimal solution. This local solution is used for an initial bound.     

A combined approach to solve binary multicriteria problems

An implicit enumeration algorithm is developed to determine the set of efficient points in zero-one multiple criteria problems. The algorithm is specialized for the solution of a particular class of facility location problems. The procedure is complemented with the use of the utility function of the decision maker to identify a subset of efficient point candidates for the final selection. Computational results are provided and discussed.     

Periodic replacement when minimal repair costs vary with time

A policy of periodic replacement with minimal repair at failure is considered for a complex system. Under such a policy the system is replaced at multiples of some period T while minimal repair is performed at any intervening system failures. The cost of a minimal repair to the system is assumed to be a nonde-creasing function of its age. A simple expression is derived for the expected minimal repair cost in an interval in terms of the cost function and the failure rate of the system. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of an optimal replacement interval are exhibited in the case where the system life distribution is strictly increasing failure rate (IFR).     

Statistical analysis of the output data from terminating simulations

In this paper we precisely define the two types of simulations (terminating and steady-state) with regard to analysis of simulation output and discuss some common measures of performance for each type. In addition, we conclude, on the basis of discussions with many simulation practitioners, that both types of simulations are important in practice. This is contrary to the impression one gets from reading the simulation literature, where the steady-state case is almost exclusively considered. Although analyses of terminating simulations are considerably easier than are those of steady-state simulations, they have not received a careful treatment in the literature. We discuss and give empirical results for fixed sample size, relative width, and absolute width procedures that can be used for constructing confidence intervals for measures of performance in the terminating case.     

A note on integer linear fractional programming

This note consists of developing a method for enforcing additional constraints to linear fractional programs and showing its usefulness in solving integer linear fractional programs.     

Uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimates of operational readiness and reliability in a two-state system

This paper obtains the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimates of two indices of performance of a system which alternates between two states “up” or “down” in accordance with a Markov process. The two indices are (1) operational readiness, which measures the probability that the system will be up when needed; and (2) operational reliability, which measures the probability that the system will be up during the entire time of need. For the purpose of obtaining these estimates, two types of observations are considered: (a) those which reveal only the state of system at isolated time-points, and (b) those which continuously record the duration of the “up” and “down” times of the system.     

A linear programming model for minimum-cost procurement and operation of marine corps training aircraft

In military situations of sharply increasing combat activity the Marine Corps is faced with training problems in its expanding aviator corps. Additional training aircraft are required, and procurement decisions must be made. In view of the significant costs involved in procurement and operation of new high performance aircraft, it is very desirable to buy and operate an efficient mix of aircraft necessary for training the pilots to make the Marine Aircraft Wings essentially 100-percent tactically qualified. The mathematical model presented here enables computation of a least-cost mix of training aircraft which satisfies certain specified training requirements. The basic element allowing tradeoffs is the commonality of training available in the F4, RF4, A6, and EA6 types of aircraft. Both airframe oriented and mission oriented training are necessary, but the airframe oriented training can be conducted in either of the aircraft possessing the commonality. Training requirements over a five year period are considered, and the mix of training aircraft has the minimum five year procurement and operating cost.     

Optimal interdiction policy for a flow network

This paper analyzes the problem faced by a field commander who, confronted by an enemy on N battlefields, must determine an interdiction policy for the enemy's logistics system which minimizes the amount of war material flowing through this system per unit time. The resource utilized to achieve this interdiction is subject to constraint. It can be shown that this problem is equivalent to determining the set of arcs Z* to remove subject to constraint from a directed graph G such that the resulting maximal flow is minimized. A branch and bound algorithm for the solution to this problem is described, and a numerical example is provided.