带有先验分布的Bayes统计抽样方案费用评价模型

以往在评价和比较几个统计抽样方案时,多从比较分析两种风险率入手,由于这种方法的局限性,往往不能得出满意的结论。本文利用Bayes方法,在给出先验分布及有关损失函数的条件下,从各种抽样方案的平均总损失入手比较几个可选方案的优良性。本文提供的与二项分布相对应的算法具有一般意义。示例所得结果也是令人满意的。     

加电场减少等离子鞘套电子密度方案探讨

高速飞行器重返大气层时,在其表面形成高温等离子体鞘套,它在某一个飞行高度范围内会引起飞行器与地面之间的通讯中断,即“再入通讯中断问题”。目前国外减缓中断的手段较多,然而各有利弊。本文从原理上探讨了加电场减少鞘套边界层内电子密度方案的可能性,以期作为一种较简单的克服再入通讯中断的物理手段。     

An exact analysis of a joint production‐inventory problem in two‐echelon inventory systems

We consider a two‐echelon inventory system with a manufacturer operating from a warehouse supplying multiple distribution centers (DCs) that satisfy the demand originating from multiple sources. The manufacturer has a finite production capacity and production times are stochastic. Demand from each source follows an independent Poisson process. We assume that the transportation times between the warehouse and DCs may be positive which may require keeping inventory at both the warehouse and DCs. Inventory in both echelons is managed using the base‐stock policy. Each demand source can procure the product from one or more DCs, each incurring a different fulfilment cost. The objective is to determine the optimal base‐stock levels at the warehouse and DCs as well as the assignment of the demand sources to the DCs so that the sum of inventory holding, backlog, and transportation costs is minimized. We obtain a simple equation for finding the optimal base‐stock level at each DC and an upper bound for the optimal base‐stock level at the warehouse. We demonstrate several managerial insights including that the demand from each source is optimally fulfilled entirely from a single distribution center, and as the system's utilization approaches 1, the optimal base‐stock level increases in the transportation time at a rate equal to the demand rate arriving at the DC. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

Approximation methods for the analysis of a multicomponent,multiproduct assemble‐to‐order system

In this article, we consider the performance evaluation of a multicomponent, multiproduct assemble‐to‐order (ATO) system. Each component is managed independently using a base‐stock policy at a supply facility with limited production capacity and an infinite buffer. The arrivals of demands follow a multivariate Poisson process and unfilled demands are backlogged. Because exact analysis of the proposed system is not feasible, we propose two approximation methods which provide upper and lower bounds for various performance measures such as fill rate, average waiting time, and average number of backorders of the proposed system. Our computational experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the two approximation methods under various system settings. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

基于UKF的主动段弹道跟踪算法

引入不敏卡尔曼滤波(UKF)(Unscented Kalman Filtering)用于主动段目标跟踪.UKF通过设置Sigma样点分布和样点权值来逼近样本非线性变换参量的矩,对状态向量的PDF进行近似化,是一种以标准Kalman滤波器为框架的非线性滤波器.在应用中,UKF避免了求Jacobian矩阵,且跟踪效果较好.     

证据理论从两维到多维同步融合

D-S证据理论的组合规则是反映两个证据联合作用的法则。为了得到多个证据源的最终目标属性判决,提出了一种推广到多维同步合成计算的D-S组合规则。详细分析了多维同步融合的情况,提出利用多维同步融合的确定性因子来代替D-S组合规则中的不确定性因子进行融合,避免计算大量无实际意义的联合概率乘积项,简化了计算过程,拓展了D-S证据理论的实际应用。并通过仿真验证了推广到多维同步融合的D-S组合规则的正确性和有效性。     

三种实时误差配准算法性能分析与比较

对雷达组网中现有的三种实时误差配准算法即扩维扩展卡尔曼滤波算法(Augmented State Extended Kalman Filter)、解耦卡尔曼滤波算法(decoupled Kalman Filter)和准确算法(Exact method)进行了介绍与分析,并通过蒙特卡罗仿真试验从算法估计的均方根误差、估计的...     

温压战斗部爆炸冲击波对地下目标毁伤建模

针对温压战斗部对地下目标的冲击波毁伤问题,利用ANSYS/LS-DYNA有限元软件建立三维模型,模拟出炸药起爆以及冲击波在地下密闭空间中传播的全过程,得到了与实际密闭空间中温压炸药爆炸冲击波特性较为吻合的冲击波超压曲线,通过LS-DYNA自带的积分运算功能求得了相应的比冲量曲线,为下一步毁伤分析提供了数据基础.     

对抗仿真中防空导弹微分对策模型研究

针对防空导弹与目标的空间对抗,建立了防空导弹微分对策空间对抗模型,并推算得到了最优策略,运用自适应神经网络评判方法对模型进行求解,通过给定条件下的仿真证明了该算法的有效性,显示了该模型可应用于防空导弹与目标的空间对抗问题。     

贝叶斯网络推理在信息系统安全风险评估中的应用

提出了一种基于贝叶斯网络推理的安全风险评估方法。从实际出发建立信息系统的贝叶斯网络模型,根据专家给出的先验信息,结合获得的证据信息,运用Pearl方法完成对模型的评估,给出在特定条件下模型的计算——线性推理算法。最后,以实例分析信息系统安全评估的实现过程,结果表明,该方法可行、有效。