Bayesian enhanced decision making for deteriorating repairable systems with preventive maintenance

Since a system and its components usually deteriorate with age, preventive maintenance (PM) is often performed to restore or keep the function of a system in a good state. Furthermore, PM is capable of improving the health condition of the system and thus prolongs its effective age. There has been a vast amount of research to find optimal PM policies for deteriorating repairable systems. However, such decisions involve numerous uncertainties and the analyses are typically difficult to perform because of the scarcity of data. It is therefore important to make use of all information in an efficient way. In this article, a Bayesian decision model is developed to determine the optimal number of PM actions for systems which are maintained according to a periodic PM policy. A non‐homogeneous Poisson process with a power law failure intensity is used to describe the deteriorating behavior of the repairable system. It is assumed that the status of the system after a PM is somewhere between as good as new for a perfect repair and as good as old for a minimal repair, and for failures between two preventive maintenances, the system undergoes minimal repairs. Finally, a numerical example is given and the results of the proposed approach are discussed after performing sensitivity analysis. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Sojourn times in G/M/1 fork‐join networks

We consider a processing network in which jobs arrive at a fork‐node according to a renewal process. Each job requires the completion of m tasks, which are instantaneously assigned by the fork‐node to m task‐processing nodes that operate like G/M/1 queueing stations. The job is completed when all of its m tasks are finished. The sojourn time (or response time) of a job in this G/M/1 fork‐join network is the total time it takes to complete the m tasks. Our main result is a closed‐form approximation of the sojourn‐time distribution of a job that arrives in equilibrium. This is obtained by the use of bounds, properties of D/M/1 and M/M/1 fork‐join networks, and exploratory simulations. Statistical tests show that our approximation distributions are good fits for the sojourn‐time distributions obtained from simulations. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Scheduling of depalletizing and truck loading operations in a food distribution system

This paper studies a scheduling problem arising in a beef distribution system where pallets of various types of beef products in the warehouse are first depalletized and then individual cases are loaded via conveyors to the trucks which deliver beef products to various customers. Given each customer's demand for each type of beef, the problem is to find a depalletizing and truck loading schedule that fills all the demands at a minimum total cost. We first show that the general problem where there are multiple trucks and each truck covers multiple customers is strongly NP‐hard. Then we propose polynomial‐time algorithms for the case where there are multiple trucks, each covering only one customer, and the case where there is only one truck covering multiple customers. We also develop an optimal dynamic programming algorithm and a heuristic for solving the general problem. By comparing to the optimal solutions generated by the dynamic programming algorithm, the heuristic is shown to be capable of generating near optimal solutions quickly. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

武器系统可靠性的最低可接收值选取探讨

通过对短时高风险定时试验方案、Bayes方案和可靠性评估方法应用分析,总结了最低可接收值对试验周期以及试验结果评定的影响.根据目前的实际情况,提出了在可靠性试验中最低可接收值的选取原则和方法,有很好的实用性.     

基于蚁群算法的防空兵兵力机动线路优化

根据防空兵对机动线路的要求以及战时的安全性特点,得出影响防空兵兵力机动线路选择的因素,引入里程指数的概念.将线路的长度进行修正赋权,给出兵力机动线路的等效线路长度.把这一等效线路长度结合到蚁群算法中.能够较好地模拟现代战场的复杂环境对防空兵兵力机动路线选择的影响,并科学、合理地选择路线,为指挥员的决策提供帮助.     

Combining standardized time series area and Cramér–von Mises variance estimators

We propose three related estimators for the variance parameter arising from a steady‐state simulation process. All are based on combinations of standardized‐time‐series area and Cramér–von Mises (CvM) estimators. The first is a straightforward linear combination of the area and CvM estimators; the second resembles a Durbin–Watson statistic; and the third is related to a jackknifed version of the first. The main derivations yield analytical expressions for the bias and variance of the new estimators. These results show that the new estimators often perform better than the pure area, pure CvM, and benchmark nonoverlapping and overlapping batch means estimators, especially in terms of variance and mean squared error. We also give exact and Monte Carlo examples illustrating our findings.© 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

略论发挥军事博客的战时动员效能

发挥军事博客的动员效能为战争服务,将成为未来信息化战争中舆论斗争的新焦点。因此,必须深入了解军事博客的基本特性,准确把握其战时动员应用的基点,并扎实做好各项动员准备工作,夯实动员基础,确保其战时动员效能得以有效发挥。     

C4KISR系统成熟度的评价方法及其成熟度模型

针对指挥自动化系统与武器系统一体化(即C4KISR)的演进过程及发展趋势,探索C4KISR系统成熟度的有关问题。在对C4KISR系统的内涵、组成、功能和主要特征作简要分析之后,提出了评价系统成熟度的两种方法,构建了系统成熟度模型框架,并针对其中一种方法建立了系统成熟度模型。该模型为衡量C4KISR系统的发展水平提供了方法。     

基于Elman神经网络的装甲装备维修保障系统效能评估

从影响装甲装备维修保障系统效能的主要因素出发,建立了比较全面的装甲装备维修保障系统效能评价指标体系。介绍了Elman神经网络的结构和学习过程,建立了维修保障系统效能评估模型。采用Delphi法和AHP相结合的方法,处理了原始数据,获得了10组训练样本和测试样本。利用Matlab7.0进行了评估模型的构建,利用训练样本对模型进行了训练和测试,证明了模型的可用性。研究结果可为在现有装甲装备维修保障系统的基础上开发和研制新型系统提供理论参考。     

装备再制造性指标分配

再制造性设计是装备再制造工程的重要组成部分,是实现退役装备易于再制造的可靠保证,而再制造性指标分配是再制造性设计的重要内容,它能够保证所要求的指标科学地分配到装备各零部件,实现装备再制造效益的最大化。探讨了再制造性指标分配的相关概念及其再制造性指标分配程序,并提出了几种可行的再制造性指标分配方法,为装备的再制造性设计提供了有效的技术支撑。