Optimal scheduling of objects in circulating systems

A “circulating system” is a finite collection of objects, each of which is oscillaling between two states. The prototype system is that of ships on patrcl,each subject to a quasi-regular “duty-service” cycle. There are various restrictions on the time spent in either state by an object and on the number of objects in a state at any one time. Schedules are sought in which the total number in one state is as large and as constant as possible. The maximal average number in one state is calculated, and a necessary and sufficient condition is given for a schedule to achieve it. Procedures are developed for constructing a schedule which achieves the maximal average in the most constant manner.     

Economic impact and the notion of compensated procurement

The paper consists essentially of two parts. In the first part a linear economic impact model is presented whose structure is based on subcontracting flows. The structural coefficients are defined in terms of flows per area. The model is derived from two identities that are analogous to the income and expenditure identities of national income accounting. The parameters are prime contracts and when one or several of the prime contracts are changed, the model determines the impacts of such changes on the various regions that have been selected. The impacts can be combined with regional multipliers to derive changes in regional income and regional employment. Fragmentary data for this kind of model have been collected on a one-time basis by DOD in 1965 and some results based on the data are presented. The second part of the paper is concerned with normative economics. A scheme is suggested, called compensated procurement, that outlines how the Department of Defense might employ the impact model in a macroeconomic setting. The basic idea is that a stabilization fund be established to finance an array of potential projects which are contracted for to balance sudden shifts in defense demand. Only short-run stabilization is advocated.     

Dynamic multiattribute models for mixed manpower systems

This paper reviews a wide variety of manpower and personnel models of the goal programming variety. This is done from a strategy-oriented point of view addressing the problems of interest for immediate implementation as well as basic problems of manpower model research development. Particular emphasis in this paper is concerned with how analytical models can be brought to bear on the problems of combining military and civilian manpower into one management system. This includes a discussion of the computer support arrangements necessary to implement the models. First, we discuss an extension of multilevel models to provide an integrated approach to program planning which includes the dynamics of the manpower requirements-inventory relationships of mixed military-civilian manpower systems. Then, focus is given to some of the potential Navy applications particularly in terms of ways the outputs from the global multilevel model might be interfaced with assignment models for operational planning. The paper concludes with a discussion of static and dynamic multiattribute assignment models which operate on the individual man-job matching level. It is at this level of detail that dynamic mixed manpower systems might be constructed for use in equal employment opportunity planning and for local organization design studies.     

Estimating reliability growth (or deterioration) using time series analysis

In this paper we propose a method for estimating reliability growth (or deterioration) using time series analysis. Our method does not call for the specification of a particular model, and estimates the growth in the presence of periodicity. We illustrate our procedure by considering some binomial failure data generated during the testing of a large system of the U.S. Navy.     

A note on duality in homogeneous fractional programming

For a linear fractional programming problem, Sharma and Swarup have constructed a dual problem, also a linear fractional program, in which the objective functions of both primal and dual problems are the same. Craven and Mond have extended this result to a nonlinear fractional programming problem with linear constraints, and a dual problem for which the objective function is the same as that of the primal. This theorem is now further extended from linear to differentiable convex constraints.     

Statistical tests for exponential service from m/g/1 waiting-time data

From an original motivation in quantitative inventory modeling, we develop methods for testing the hypothesis that the service times of an M/G/1 queue are exponentially distributed, given a sequence of observations of customer line and/or system waits. The approaches are mostly extensions of the well-known exponential goodness-of-fit test popularized by Gnedenko, which results from the observation that the sum of a random exponential sample is Erlang distributed and thus that the quotient of two independent exponential sample means is F distributed.     

Experiments with linear fractional problems

In this paper we present the results of a limited number of experiments with linear fractional problems. Six solution procedures were tested and the results are expressed in the number of simplex-like pivots required to solve a sample of twenty problems randomly generated.