Advancing “Defence-in-depth”: intelligence and systems dynamics

This article aims to encourage the fostering of more systems thinking, and its greater exploitation, within the domain of contemporary intelligence. With particular focus on “micro systems thinking” and with reference to key intelligence processes, such as intelligence analysis, the utility of many systems dynamics within the intelligence context seeks to be further revealed. Through their greater collective harnessing, including up to “System of Systems” (“SoS”) dynamics, and promoting all that they can offer, more sophisticated overarching operational-to-strategic/policy “ends,” notably that of “defence-in-depth,” can be viably further advanced in a sustainable manner into the future. Arguably, a much-needed transformative impact on contemporary intelligence can also be increasingly realised through comprehensively engaging in and with more systems and SoS thinking. Aiding civil protection tasks, crisis management, emergency planners, and civil contingency practitioners likewise gain.     

Military Innovation and Tactical Adaptation in the Israel–Hizballah Conflict: The Institutionalization of Lesson-Learning in the IDF

This article highlights a pattern of military adaptation and tactical problem-solving utilized by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) while engaged in protracted conflict with the Lebanese militant group Hizballah. It discusses the IDF’s recent attempts to institutionalize their historically intuitive process of ad-hoc learning by developing a formal tactical-level mechanism for ‘knowledge management’. The diffusion of this battlefield lesson-learning system that originated at lower-levels of the organization is examined, as well as its implementation and effectiveness during the 2006 Lebanon War. A nuanced analysis of IDF adaptation illustrates the dynamic interplay between both ‘top-down’ and ‘bottom-up’ processes of military innovation.     

Effects of lethality in naval combat models

In the context of both discrete time salvo models and continuous time Lanchester models we examine the effect on naval combat of lethality: that is, the relative balance between the offensive and defensive attributes of the units involved. We define three distinct levels of lethality and describe the distinguishing features of combat for each level. We discuss the implications of these characteristics for naval decision‐makers; in particular, we show that the usefulness of the intuitive concept “more is better” varies greatly depending on the lethality level. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

Index policies for the routing of background jobs

Arriving (generic) jobs may be processed at one of several service stations, but only when no other (dedicated) jobs are waiting there. We consider the problem of how to route these incoming background jobs to make best use of the spare service capacity available at the stations. We develop an approximative approach to Whittle's proposal for restless bandits to obtain an index policy for routing. The indices concerned are increasing and nonlinear in the station workload. A numerical study testifies to the strong performance of the index policies developed. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

Strategies for managing the flexible capacity in the airline industry

The ability to effectively match supply and demand under uncertainty can result in significant revenue benefits in the airline industry. We study the benefits of a Demand Driven Swapping (DDS) approach that takes advantage of the flexibilities in the system and dynamically swaps aircraft as departures near and more accurate demand information is obtained. We analyze the effectiveness of different DDS strategies, characterized by their frequency (how often the swapping decision is revised), in hedging against demand uncertainty. Swapping aircraft several weeks prior to departures will not cause much disturbance to revenue management and operations, but will be based on highly uncertain demands. On the other hand, revising the swapping decision later will decrease the possibility of bad swaps, but at a higher cost of disrupting airport services and operations. Our objective is to provide guidelines on how the flexible (swappable) capacity should be managed in the system. We study analytical models to gain insights into the critical parameters that affect the revenue benefits of the different swapping strategies. Our study determines the conditions under which each of the different DDS strategies is effective. We complement our analysis by testing the proposed DDS strategies on a set of flight legs, using data obtained from United Airlines. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

Coalitions & the Legitimisation of UK Security Policy

Abstract

David Moore analyses the role of the Treasury in detemining and controlling defence policy and expenditure, and the place of the MoD within this function.     

An experimental comparison of solution algorithms for the single-machine tardiness problem

A basic problem in scheduling involves the sequencing of a set of independent tasks at a single facility with the objective of minimizing mean tardiness. Although the problem is relatively simple, the determination of an optimal sequence remains a challenging combinatorial problem. A number of algorithms have been developed for finding solutions, and this paper reports a comparative evaluation of these procedures. Computer programs for five separate algorithms were written and all were run on a data base designed to highlight computational differences. Optimizing algorithms developed by Emmons and by Srinivasan appeared to be particularly efficient in the comparative study.     

Computerized scheduling of seagoing tankers

Computerized Scheduling of Seagoing Tankers The tanker scheduling problem considered in this paper is that of the Defense Fuel Supply Center (DFSC) and the Military Sealift Command (MSC) in the worldwide distribution of bulk petroleum products. Routes and cargoes which meet delivery schedule dates for a multiplicity of product requirements at minimum cost are to be determined for a fleet of tankers. A general mathematical programming model is presented, and then a mixed integer model is developed which attempts to reflect the true scheduling task of DFSC and MSC as closely as possible. The problem is kept to within a workable size by the systematic construction of a set of tanker routes which does not contain many possible routes that can be judged unacceptable from practical considerations alone.