The LP/POMDP marriage: Optimization with imperfect information

A new technique for solving large‐scale allocation problems with partially observable states and constrained action and observation resources is introduced. The technique uses a master linear program (LP) to determine allocations among a set of control policies, and uses partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) to determine improving policies using dual prices from the master LP. An application is made to a military problem where aircraft attack targets in a sequence of stages, with information acquired in one stage being used to plan attacks in the next. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Naval Research Logistics 47: 607–619, 2000     

Between a rock and a hard place: Europe in a post-INF world

The end of the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty has the potential to plunge Europe and NATO into deep crisis. Russia’s continued violation coupled with the Donald J. Trump administration’s desire to balance against Moscow and Beijing could force a new missile debate on Europeans. Even though Washington is trying to assuage its allies, the specter of another round of INF missile deployments to Europe is not unrealistic. Meanwhile, NATO’s European members face a dilemma. Some want NATO to resolutely push back against Russia. Others want to avoid a new deployment debate, at almost all costs. The Kremlin will use these cleavages to weaken NATO. If not carefully handled, NATO’s response to the Russian missile buildup could lead to domestic turmoil in a number of European states and render the alliance ineffective for a prolonged period. Europeans need to act now and voice their preferences in the military and diplomatic domains. A number of different military options are available, below the level of deploying new INF missiles in Europe. However, Europeans need to consider trade-offs regarding crisis and arms-race stability. At the same time, it will be up to European capitals to conceptualize a new arms-control framework for the post-INF world, one that takes into account today’s geopolitical realities and the entanglement of modern conventional and nuclear forces. Given the Trump administration’s loathing of arms control, concepts of mutual restraint may well have to wait for the next US administration. In any case, that should not stop Europeans from taking on more responsibility for their own security.     

Learning to Fight and Fighting to Learn: Practitioners and the Role of Unit Publications in VIII Fighter Command 1943–1944

A military cannot hope to improve in wartime if it cannot learn. Ideally, in wartime, formal learning ceases and the application of knowledge begins. But this is optimistic. In 1942, USAAF Eighth Air Force assumed it had the means necessary for victory. In reality, its technique and technology were only potentially – rather than actually – effective. What remained was to create the practice of daylight bombing – to learn. This article (1) recovers a wartime learning process that created new knowledge, (2) tests existing tacit hypotheses in military adaptation research, and (3) offers additional theoretical foundation to explain how knowledge is created in wartime     

Humanitarian response to hurricane disasters: Coordinating flood‐risk mitigation with fundraising and relief operations

To alleviate flooding, caused by hurricanes, governments build structural barriers called levees. In addition, relief providers such as the nongovernmental organizations and charities raise funds, and procure and deliver supplies (food, water, and medicines) for humanitarian relief. The strategy for managing disasters must, therefore, weigh the costs and benefits of building levees as well as procuring and delivering supplies. We use a three‐stage decision making framework to study how the investment in levee capacity can be integrated with supply procurements, fundraising, and rapid response. One of our major findings is that a large fundraising cost discourages postdisaster funding, implying relatively large investments in levee and prepositioned supplies. That notwithstanding, a large social value (of saving life) can tilt the balance in favor of postdisaster funding. If the levee capacity increases, funding for predisaster procurement is reduced without affecting postdisaster funding. For a sufficiently large increase in capacity, however, postdisaster response becomes superfluous. We also find that hurricane uncertainty motivates levees with large capacity. In contrast, levee‐failures motivate levees with small capacity.     

Interrelationships between performance measures for the machine-repairman problem

The machine-repairman problem with heterogeneous machines and multiple repairmen is considered. It is assumed that machine up times and repair times have general distributions, and a work-conserving service discipline is employed. Under these general assumptions, steady-state relationships between performance measures are examined for the individual machines. Also, various performance measures are defined for the aggregate system and interrelationships between these measures are established.     

Optimal layered search

This article investigates the problem of planning an optimal layered search for a stationary target. A search is layered if it assigns each point in the search space an integer number of glimpses or looks. General necessary and sufficient conditions and an existence theorem are obtained. The special case in which the initial target distribution is bivariate normal is considered in detail.     

Interactive multicriteria linear programming: An extension of the method of Zionts and Wallenius

This article presents an extension of the interactive multicriteria linear-programming method of Zionts and Wallenius [see Management Science, 29 (5) (1983)]. The decision maker's underlying utility function is assumed to be pseudoconcave, and his preference structure is assessed through pairwise comparison questions. In the method of Zionts and Wallenius, the decision maker's preference structure is represented as constraints on the weights on the objectives derived from his responses. This representation is only a linear approximation to the underlying nonlinear utility function. Accordingly, inconsistency among the constraints on the weights arises while solving the problem. Therefore, some of the constraints have to be dropped, resulting in a loss of information on the preference structure, and hence an increase in the total number of questions. In this article we develop a hybrid representation scheme to avoid this problem. The proposed scheme is implemented within the algorithmic framework of the method of Zionts and Wallenius, and its underlying theory is developed. Computational results show that the number of questions required by the Zionts and Wallenius method can be sinificantly reduced using the proposed scheme.     

Facility location on a grid with a diagonal line

This article extends the traditional median problem on a grid to include a diagonal line (e.g., a street). In contrast to the traditional median problem, this generalized problem is nonconvex and nonseparable, invalidating some of the properties on which well-known median-seeking algorithms are based. This work presents an algorithm for finding the median on this generalized grid and discusses the relationship between it and the traditional median.