“simple-approximate” battle-outcome-prediction conditions for variable-coefficient lanchester-type equations of modern warfare

This article considers combat between two homogeneous forces modeled by variable- coefficient Lanchester-type equations of modern warfare and develops new “simple-approximate” battle-outcome-prediction conditions for military engagements terminated by two different types of prescribed conditions being met (fixed-force-level-breakpoint battles and fixed-force-ratio-breakpoint battles). These battle-outcome-prediction conditions are sufficient (but not necessary) to determine the outcome of battle without having to explicitly compute the force-level trajectories, and they are characterized by their simplicity, requiring no advanced mathematical knowledge or tabulations of “special functions” for their application. Integrability properties of the Lanchester attrition-rate coefficients figure prominently in their results, and involved in their development is a generalization of Lanchester's famous square law to variable-coefficient Lanchester-type combat and several other novel mathematical developments for the analysis of ordinary differential equations. Examples are given, with the attack of a mobile force against a static defensive position (both sides armed with weapons whose firepower is range dependent) being examined in detail.     

Geometry of the total time on test transform

Total time on test (TTT) plots provide a useful graphical method for tentative identification of failure distribution models. Identification is based on properties of the TTT transform. New properties of the TTT transform distribution are obtained. These results are useful to the user of TTT plots. Although IFR (DFR) distributions are particularly easy to identify from TTT plots, the user must exercise caution relative to identification of IFR A (DFRA) distributions.     

Toward a study of bidding processes part IV - games with unknown costs

This paper represents a continuation of three previous papers [1-.3] in the study of competitive bidding processes. It treats the case where a bidder's knowledge of his competitor's cost i s given by a probability distribution over a certain interval. The results obtained extend the work of Vickrey [4] to the case where the cost intervals a r e not necessarily symmetric.     

Bounds on parallel-processing of queues with multiple-phase jobs

Currently, both the hardware and software designs of many large computing systems aim at improved system performance through exploitation of parallelism in multiprocessor systems. In studying these systems, mathematical modelling and analysis constitute an important step towards providing design tools that can be used in building such systems. With this view the present paper describes a queueing model of a multiprocessor system operating in a job-shop environment in which arriving jobs consist of a random number of segments (sub-jobs). Two service disciplines are considered: one assumes that the sub-jobs of a given job are capable of parallel operation on different processors while the other assumes that the same sub-jobs must be operated in a strictly serial sequ'snce. The results (in particular, the mean number in the system and waiting time in queue) obtained for these two disciplines are shown to be bounds for more general job structures.     

Statistical decision analysis of stochastic linear programming problems

This paper presents a statistical decision analysis of a one-stage linear programming problem with deterministic constraints and stochastic criterion function. Procedures for obtaining numerical results are given which are applicable to any problem having this general form. We begin by stating the statistical decision problems to be considered, and then discuss the expected value of perfect information and the expected value of sample information. In obtaining these quantities, use is made of the distribution of the optimal value of the linear programming problem with stochastic criterion function, and so we discuss Monte Carlo and numerical integration procedures for estimating the mean of this distribution. The case in which the random criterion vector has a multivariate Normal distribution is discussed separately, and more detailed methods are offered. We discuss dual problems, including some relationships of this work with other work in probabilistic linear programming. An example is given in Appendix A showing application of the methods to a sample problem. In Appendix B we consider the accuracy of a procedure for approximating the expected value of information.     

Augmented nested sampling for stochastic programs with recourse and endogenous uncertainty

We propose a novel simulation‐based approach for solving two‐stage stochastic programs with recourse and endogenous (decision dependent) uncertainty. The proposed augmented nested sampling approach recasts the stochastic optimization problem as a simulation problem by treating the decision variables as random. The optimal decision is obtained via the mode of the augmented probability model. We illustrate our methodology on a newsvendor problem with stock‐dependent uncertain demand both in single and multi‐item (news‐stand) cases. We provide performance comparisons with Markov chain Monte Carlo and traditional Monte Carlo simulation‐based optimization schemes. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.     

Flintlock brass fittings from the 19th-century Akko 1 shipwreck,Israel

The Akko 1 shipwreck is the remains of a 26-metre-long Egyptian armed vessel or auxiliary naval brig built at the beginning of the 19th century. Remains of six flintlock muskets were retrieved from the shipwreck, and characterised by various metallurgical methods. The research aimed to study the composition and microstructure of the musket fittings and their manufacturing processes, and if possible, to determine the date and origin of the raw materials. The lead isotope analysis of the fittings suggests that their raw material originated in Great Britain. Based on their typology and composition, the fittings were made in Great Britain of brass alloy and manufactured by casting, probably at the same workshop; and the staple was manufactured by casting and drawing. Considering the zinc content, combined with the manufacturing techniques, the fittings were manufactured between the latter part of the 18th and the early 19th centuries, which might indicate that they were purchased in the course of 19th century weapons trade to be used on board the Egyptian ship.     

An algorithm for optimal shipments with given frequencies

This article deals with the problem of minimizing the transportation and inventory cost associated with the shipment of several products from a source to a destination, when a finite set of shipping frequencies is available. A mixed-integer programming model—shown to be NP-hard—is formulated for that problem. The computational complexity of some similar models applied to different problems is also investigated. In particular, whereas the capacitated plant location problem with operational cost in product form is NP-hard, the simple plant location problem with the same characteristics can be solved in polynomial time. A branch-and-bound algorithm is finally worked out, and some computational results are presented. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Optimal strategies for problems of simultaneous attack against an area defense without impact-point prediction

An area to be defended consists of separated point targets. These targets are subject to an attack in which the offensive weapons are assumed to arrive simultaneously. The defense has area defenders, each of which is capable of intercepting any attacker. The defense has no impact-point prediction; that is, it has no knowledge of any attacker's destination prior to allocation of area interceptors. For a given attack, the defense wishes to allocate its interceptors to maximize the total expected survival value of the targets. For a given attack size, the offense seeks a strategy to minimize total expected surviving value against best defense. We determine an optimal defensive strategy directly and develop an algorithm to determine an optimal attack and the optimal value of the min-max problem. A dynamic programming technique is used to obtain integer solutions, and illustrative computational results are provided.