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41.
A probabilistic model is developed that applies to military bombardment, advertising for a mass audience, and other kinds of situations in which striking a target means that less of it is left to strike. The model provides the basis for decision analysis based on marginal gain in such circumstances. Heterogneous resources are considered as well as composite targets. All expenditures are quantized. The model has been developed as part of a computer-based military expert system, to replace a large complex set of expert opinions. In that application it sharply improves efficiency, yet conforms to major tenets of tactical doctrine. 相似文献
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Kyung Y. Jo 《海军后勤学研究》1984,31(2):265-274
In this article we consider a continuous-time Markov decision process with a denumerable state space and nonzero terminal rewards. We first establish the necessary and sufficient optimality condition without any restriction on the cost functions. The necessary condition is derived through the Pontryagin maximum principle and the sufficient condition, by the inherent structure of the problem. We introduce a dynamic programming approximation algorithm for the finite-horizon problem. As the time between discrete points decreases, the optimal policy of the discretized problem converges to that of the continuous-time problem in the sense of weak convergence. For the infinite-horizon problem, a successive approximation method is introduced as an alternative to a policy iteration method. 相似文献
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Multicollinearity and nonnormal errors are problems often encountered in the application of linear regression. Estimators are proposed for dealing with the simultaneous occurrence of both multicollinearity and nonnormality. These estimators are developed by combining biased estimation techniques with certain robust criteria. An iteratively reweighted least-squares procedure is used to compute the estimates. The performance of the combined estimators is studied empirically through Monte Carlo experiments structured according to factorial designs. With respect to a mean-squared-error criterion, the combined estimators are superior to ordinary least-squares, pure biased estimators, and pure robust estimators when multicollinearity and nonnormality are present. The loss in efficiency for the combined estimators relative to least squares is small when these problems do not occur. Some guidelines for the use of these combined estimators are given. 相似文献
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Multiechelon repairable-item provisioning systems are considered under a time-varying environment. Such conditions could arise, for example, in a military context where a shift from peacetime operation to wartime operation takes place; or, in a civilian setting where a public transit system decides to increase its hours of operation or frequency of service. Exact Markovian models, incorporating a finite population of repairable components and limited repair capacity (nonample service), are treated, with transient solutions obtained using the randomization technique. The exact models are compared with the approximate Dyna-METRIC model which assumes an infinite population of components and ample repair capacity. 相似文献