Defense spending and the macroeconomy

Given Kinsella's (1990, 1991) appeal for analysis to be pursued using sub‐annual level of data, we pursue such an endeavor in this paper. We examime the effect of defence spending on real output, the unemployment rate, price level, and interest rate covering a quarterly time frame 1960:1 to 1988:1 using an unrestricted vector autoregression framework. Our results parallel the findings of Kinsella in that there appears no causal relationship in either direction between defence spending and economic performance.     

基于FFT的自适应频率估计算法

为了解决FFT算法中因能量泄露和栅栏效应而导致的算法估计性能下降的问题,提出了一种基于FFT的自适应频率估计算法.分析了Rife算法,指出当信号频率位于量化频率附近时,由于插值方向错误,会导致频率估计性能下降;对于分段FFT相位差频率估计算法,当2段信号最大谱线处对应的相位相差比较大时,容易产生相位模糊,从而增大估计误差.基于FFT的自适应频率估计算法将2种算法进行了综合,既保留了2种算法的优点,又对算法性能有所改进.仿真结果表明:该算法的估计精度、稳定性和抗噪能力都有显著提高.     

Staying Power and the American Future: Problems of Primacy,Policy, and Grand Strategy

Many scholars, strategists and pundits contend that the US is in decline. They argue that America's national capabilities are significantly eroding, and that with the rise of important regional powers, its primacy in world affairs is rapidly diminishing as well. Yet America continues to possess significant advantages in critical sectors such as economic size, technology, competitiveness, demography, force size, power projection, military technology, and in the societal capacity to innovate and adapt. This article argues that the nature of material problems has been overstated, and that the US should be able to withstand modest erosion in its relative strength for some time to come without losing its predominant status. Instead, where limits to American primacy do exist, they are as or more likely to be ideational as they are material. The problem inheres as much or more in elite and societal beliefs, policy choices, and political will, as in economic, technological or manpower limitations at home, or the rise of peer competitors abroad.     

The US–India courtship: from Clinton to Bush

While a considerable thaw in Indo–US relations bequeathed by the Cold War took place under Clinton, there are still factors, even after 11 September 2001, which have hindered a relationship with common strategic interests. These factors involve divergences on nuclear proliferation, the emergence of China as a world power, the pace of India's economic liberalisation, and Indo–Pakistan tension. A strategic partnership is achievable, but India will need to keep US interests constantly in focus.     

Reconstruction,the Long Tail and Decentralisation: An Application to Iraq and Afghanistan

In this paper, we examine the current state of knowledge in the economics literature on the conduct of reconstruction activities in Iraq and Afghanistan. As stabilisation and reconstruction missions grow in importance for units deployed to these regions, it becomes more important to understand what activities can promote economic growth at the local level. While military operations focus on interdicting the insurgency, successful counter-insurgency campaigns have typically addressed the conditions conducive to the insurgency. Mitigating the incentives for individuals to participate in an insurgency is imperative. Well-crafted and timed reconstruction activities can, we argue, attenuate these incentives.