The mother of all post-mortems

The most striking finding of the Chilcot Report is that the record reveals little that was previously unknown. A key point for its authors is that diplomatic alternatives had not been exhausted when the US and UK went to war. But, short of an armed attack by the other side, it is hard to say when they would have been. Here what was crucial was the belief shared by Bush and Blair that Saddam Hussain would not and could not change. For the British the issue of whether alternatives to war remained is particularly important because of its implications for international law, something that did not trouble the Americans. It remains unclear if Blair would have gained or lost leverage over Bush had he made British participation contingent on better American policy, for example on developing a workable plan for the reconstruction of Iraq.     

Drone Strikes and Grand Strategy: Toward a Political Understanding of the Uses of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Attacks in US Security Policy

This article analyzes the political utility of US drone strikes theoretically and deductively. Placing strikes within the context of the theorized political functions of force and considering how they fit into two grand strategies, restraint and selective engagement, I argue that these strikes buy the United States relatively little in the way of political effects assuring its own security because the terrorism threat they are intended to combat is a limited one within the skein of US global interests. Furthermore, their contribution to counter-terrorism efforts is likely to diminish with the adoption of armed drones by non-state actors. Drone strikes can, however, provide leverage over recalcitrant US client states while reassuring liberal partners and giving them some leverage over US choices. In addition, within the counter-terrorism sphere, drone strikes are less likely to inflame popular opinion than are alternative uses of force. This analysis contributes to an increasingly rigorous examination of the strikes’ role in US foreign and security policy.     

Allocation of quality improvement targets based on investments in learning

Purchased materials often account for more than 50% of a manufacturer's product nonconformance cost. A common strategy for reducing such costs is to allocate periodic quality improvement targets to suppliers of such materials. Improvement target allocations are often accomplished via ad hoc methods such as prescribing a fixed, across‐the‐board percentage improvement for all suppliers, which, however, may not be the most effective or efficient approach for allocating improvement targets. We propose a formal modeling and optimization approach for assessing quality improvement targets for suppliers, based on process variance reduction. In our models, a manufacturer has multiple product performance measures that are linear functions of a common set of design variables (factors), each of which is an output from an independent supplier's process. We assume that a manufacturer's quality improvement is a result of reductions in supplier process variances, obtained through learning and experience, which require appropriate investments by both the manufacturer and suppliers. Three learning investment (cost) models for achieving a given learning rate are used to determine the allocations that minimize expected costs for both the supplier and manufacturer and to assess the sensitivity of investment in learning on the allocation of quality improvement targets. Solutions for determining optimal learning rates, and concomitant quality improvement targets are derived for each learning investment function. We also account for the risk that a supplier may not achieve a targeted learning rate for quality improvements. An extensive computational study is conducted to investigate the differences between optimal variance allocations and a fixed percentage allocation. These differences are examined with respect to (i) variance improvement targets and (ii) total expected cost. For certain types of learning investment models, the results suggest that orders of magnitude differences in variance allocations and expected total costs occur between optimal allocations and those arrived at via the commonly used rule of fixed percentage allocations. However, for learning investments characterized by a quadratic function, there is surprisingly close agreement with an “across‐the‐board” allocation of 20% quality improvement targets. © John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 684–709, 2001     

Dirty war: chemical weapon use and domestic repression

The utilization of chemical weapons to quash domestic rebellion is a drastic action for a regime facing domestic challengers to take, especially given the reputation costs and risk of international intervention. However, recent developments have illustrated that some regimes have contemplated and implemented extraordinary measures (including the use of chemical munitions) to quash rebellion. This study addresses the question of why some states utilize chemical weapons against domestic challengers while others refrain from this level of state repression. I argue that the utilization of chemical weapons has both domestic and international elements. Specifically, that ethnic cleavages that lead to secessionist challenges and factors associated with inter-state rivalry impact the likelihood that a state utilizes the employment of chemical munitions. I test my argument and other explanations regarding repression with a casestudy approach utilizing captured Iraqi Government documents comparing Iraq’s Al-Anfal campaigns with developments during the recent Syrian Civil War.     

An interactive optimization system for bulk-cargo ship scheduling

This article considers the efficient scheduling of a fleet of ships engaged in pickup and delivery of bulk cargoes. Our optimization system begins by generating a menu of candidate schedules for each ship. This menu can contain all feasible solutions, which guarantees we will find an optimal solution or can be heuristically limited to contain only those schedules likely to be in an optimal solution. The problem of choosing from this menu an optimal schedule for the fleet is formulated as a set-packing problem and solved with a dual algorithm. Computational experience is presented based on real data obtained from the Military Sealift Command of the U. S. Navy. Run times for this data were reasonable and solutions were generated with the potential of saving up to about $30 million per year over the manual system currently in place. We also describe a color-graphics interface developed to facilitate interaction with the optimization system.     

On the robustness of the modified beta distribution for acceptance sampling in statistical quality control

The purpose of this article is to examine the robustness of the modified Beta distribution as a probability distribution of lot fraction defectives in Bayesian acceptance sampling for statistical quality control. In complex manufacturing systems, a production process may consist of multiple production stages in a serial or nonserial fashion. Hence, inputs to a production station can be a result of subassembly of several inputs, or outputs of some inspection stations for some prior work stages. We investigate the effectiveness of the modified Beta distribution as an approximation to the lot fraction defectives probability of inputs at intermediate work stations. The robustness of the modified Beta distribution simplifies both the determination of the optimal sampling plan for acceptance sampling, and the calibration of distributions resulted from subassembly or inspection operations in complex manufacturing systems.     

Approximate semieconomic design of control charts with multiple control limtis

Statistical quality control of complicated production processes subject to a multiplicity of assignable causes may require the utilization of control charts with multiple control limits. This article presents an approximate semieconomic design of such charts, which is easily implementable in practical situations. Evaluations of the semieconomic control chart design show that the proposed approximate method results in solutions that are very close to the true optima and can be obtained with minimal computational effort.     

Multi-item service constrained (s,S) policies for spare parts logistics systems

Many organizations providing service support for products or families of products must allocate inventory investment among the parts (or, identically, items) that make up those products or families. The allocation decision is crucial in today's competitive environment in which rapid response and low levels of inventory are both required for providing competitive levels of customer service in marketing a firm's products. This is particularly important in high-tech industries, such as computers, military equipment, and consumer appliances. Such rapid response typically implies regional and local distribution points for final products and for spare parts for repairs. In this article we fix attention on a given product or product family at a single location. This single-location problem is the basic building block of multi-echelon inventory systems based on level-by-level decomposition, and our modeling approach is developed with this application in mind. The product consists of field-replaceable units (i.e., parts), which are to be stocked as spares for field service repair. We assume that each part will be stocked at each location according to an (s, S) stocking policy. Moreover, we distinguish two classes of demand at each location: customer (or emergency) demand and normal replenishment demand from lower levels in the multiechelon system. The basic problem of interest is to determine the appropriate policies (s_i S_i) for each part i in the product under consideration. We formulate an approximate cost function and service level constraint, and we present a greedy heuristic algorithm for solving the resulting approximate constrained optimization problem. We present experimental results showing that the heuristics developed have good cost performance relative to optimal. We also discuss extensions to the multiproduct component commonality problem.