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191.
Consider a stochastic simulation experiment consisting of v independent vector replications consisting of an observation from each of k independent systems. Typical system comparisons are based on mean (long‐run) performance. However, the probability that a system will actually be the best is sometimes more relevant, and can provide a very different perspective than the systems' means. Empirically, we select one system as the best performer (i.e., it wins) on each replication. Each system has an unknown constant probability of winning on any replication and the numbers of wins for the individual systems follow a multinomial distribution. Procedures exist for selecting the system with the largest probability of being the best. This paper addresses the companion problem of estimating the probability that each system will be the best. The maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the multinomial cell probabilities for a set of v vector replications across k systems are well known. We use these same v vector replications to form vk unique vectors (termed pseudo‐replications) that contain one observation from each system and develop estimators based on AVC (All Vector Comparisons). In other words, we compare every observation from each system with every combination of observations from the remaining systems and note the best performer in each pseudo‐replication. AVC provides lower variance estimators of the probability that each system will be the best than the MLEs. We also derive confidence intervals for the AVC point estimators, present a portion of an extensive empirical evaluation and provide a realistic example. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 341–358, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10019 相似文献
192.
Discrete‐time queues with D‐MAP arrival process are more useful in modeling and performance analysis of telecommunication networks based on the ATM environment. This paper analyzes a finite‐buffer discrete‐time queue with general bulk‐service rule, wherein the arrival process is D‐MAP and service times are arbitrarily and independently distributed. The distributions of buffer contents at various epochs (departure, random, and prearrival) have been obtained using imbedded Markov chain and supplementary variable methods. Finally, some performance measures such as loss probability and average delay are discussed. Numerical results are also presented in some cases. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 345–363, 2003. 相似文献
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In an earlier article we showed that, for facilities-location problems characterized by generalized distance norms and any even number of existing facilities, the optimal location of the new facility is at the intersection of the lines joining the pairs of facilities if these lines intersect at a single point. In this article we extend this concept to show that, for a more general class of problems, the optimal location is one of a set of points which is specified by the existing facilities. 相似文献
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履带车辆动力舱空气流场的CFD模拟与试验研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
以某履带车辆动力舱为研究对象,建立了舱内空气流动与传热计算的物理模型和数学模型,采用标准k-ε方程湍流模型对动力舱内的空气流动进行了描述,采用Fluent软件中的薄面模型对散热器与冷却风扇进行了简化处理,对舱内空气的速度场和温度场进行了三维数值模拟,采用热线风速仪对进、排气窗处的气体流速与温度进行了试验测试,测试值与模拟值的最大相对误差为9.42%,精度能够满足工程需要,表明该计算模型合理可行。 相似文献
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