A two-machine repair model with variable repair rate

A two-unit cold standby production system with one repairman is considered. After inspection of a failed unit the repairman chooses either a slow or a fast repair rate to carry out the corresponding amount of work. At system breakdown the repairman has an additional opportunity to switch to the fast rate. If there are no fixed costs associated with system breakdowns, then the policy which minimizes longrun average costs is shown to be a two-dimensional control limit rule. If fixed costs are incurred every time the system breaks down, then the optimal policy is not necessarily of control limit type. This is illustrated by a counterexample. Furthermore, we present several performance measures for this maintenance system controlled by a two-dimensional control limit rule. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

On excess-, current-, and total-life distributions of phase-type renewal processes

Consider a renewal process whose interrenewal-time distribution is phase type with representation (α, T). We show that the (time-dependent) excess-life distribution is phase type with representation (α′, T), where α′ is an appropriately modified initial probability vector. Using this result, we derive the (time-dependent) distributions for the current life and the total life of the phase-type renewal process. They in turn enable us to obtain the equilibrium distributions for the three random variables. These results simplify the computation of the respective distribution functions and consequently enhance the potential use of renewal theory in stochastic modeling—particularly in inventory, queueing, and reliability applications. © 1992 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Workload distribution of discrete‐time parallel queues with two servers

We study discrete‐time, parallel queues with two identical servers. Customers arrive randomly at the system and join the queue with the shortest workload that is defined as the total service time required for the server to complete all the customers in the queue. The arrivals are assumed to follow a geometric distribution and the service times are assumed to have a general distribution. It is a no‐jockeying queue. The two‐dimensional state space is truncated into a banded array. The resulting modified queue is studied using the method of probability generating function (pgf) The workload distribution in steady state is obtained in form of pgf. A special case where the service time is a deterministic constant is further investigated. Numerical examples are illustrated. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 440–454, 2000     

A set-processing algorithm for scheduling staff on 4-day or 3-day work weeks

This paper presents an efficient algorithm for scheduling a single-category work force on 4-day or 3-day work weeks. Employees work 4 or 3 days each week, have A out of every B weekends off, and work no more than 5 consecutive days in a work stretch on 4-day work weeks and no more than 4 days in a work stretch on 3-day work weeks. Such conditions often prevail in 7-day-a-week organizations such as hospitals, manufacturing plants, and retail stores. We determine the minimum number of workers required to satisfy the scheduling constraints under any pattern of daily requirements. Then we present the algorithm for assigning days off for each worker, thereby determining the work schedules. We show that the algorithm, by construction, will necessarily satisfy the scheduling constraints. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 45: 839–853, 1998     

Maintaining systems with heterogeneous spare parts

We consider the problem of optimally maintaining a stochastically degrading, single‐unit system using heterogeneous spares of varying quality. The system's failures are unannounced; therefore, it is inspected periodically to determine its status (functioning or failed). The system continues in operation until it is either preventively or correctively maintained. The available maintenance options include perfect repair, which restores the system to an as‐good‐as‐new condition, and replacement with a randomly selected unit from the supply of heterogeneous spares. The objective is to minimize the total expected discounted maintenance costs over an infinite time horizon. We formulate the problem using a mixed observability Markov decision process (MOMDP) model in which the system's age is observable but its quality must be inferred. We show, under suitable conditions, the monotonicity of the optimal value function in the belief about the system quality and establish conditions under which finite preventive maintenance thresholds exist. A detailed computational study reveals that the optimal policy encourages exploration when the system's quality is uncertain; the policy is more exploitive when the quality is highly certain. The study also demonstrates that substantial cost savings are achieved by utilizing our MOMDP‐based method as compared to more naïve methods of accounting for heterogeneous spares.     

Optimal maintenance policies for constantly monitored systems

A multistate system is assumed to be constantly monitored; i.e., the state of the system is always known with certainty. Damage to the system accumulates via a continuous-time Markov process. A model of the system including restoration costs and state occupation costs is developed. It is shown that under certain conditions the optimal restoration policy for the system is a control limit rule. A control limit rule is a policy which requires restoration of the system whenever the damage exceeds a certain level. Examples are presented to show that there are several situations in which, perhaps surprisingly, control limit rules are not optimal.     

Bounds and properties of the expected value of sample information for a project-selection problem

In this article we extend the work of Mehrez and Stulman [5] on the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) to the expected value of sample information (EVSI) for a class of economic problems dealing with the decision to reject or accept an investment project. It is shown that shifting the mean of the underlying a priori distribution of X, the project's monetary value from zero in either direction will decrease the associated EVSI of Y, the random sampled information. A theorem is then presented which gives an upper bound on the EVSI over all distributions of Y, as well as the structure of the posterior mean E[X|Y] for which this upper bound is achieved. Finally, the case where E[X|Y] is linear in Y is discussed and its performance compared with that of the optimal case.     

The impotence of conventional arms control: why do international regimes fail when they are most needed?

Amid tensions with the West over Ukraine, Russia pulled out of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe in March 2015. The Russian case is another example of a country disengaging from conventional arms control when relations with other member states deteriorate. This raises an important question: can arms control regimes aimed at preventing conflict survive periods of tension and preserve peace? This article argues no. It demonstrates that the prospect and stability of conventional arms control regimes depend on healthy international relations. In times of tension, governments rely on military institutions for advice and absorb military biases incompatible with arms control. Therefore, these regimes fail when most needed and are impotent as instruments of peace. Beyond conventional arms control, the article hints at the fragility of nuclear agreements such as the 2015 Iran deal and the 2010 New START between the United States and Russia.