Capacity expansion with lead times and autocorrelated random demand

The combination of uncertain demand and lead times for installing capacity creates the risk of shortage during the lead time, which may have serious consequences for a service provider. This paper analyzes a model of capacity expansion with autocorrelated random demand and a fixed lead time for adding capacity. To provide a specified level of service, a discrete time expansion timing policy uses a forecast error‐adjusted minimum threshold level of excess capacity position to trigger an expansion. Under this timing policy, the expansion cost can be minimized by solving a deterministic dynamic program. We study the effects of demand characteristics and the lead time length on the capacity threshold. Autocorrelation acts similarly to randomness in hastening expansions but has a smaller impact, especially when lead times are short. However, the failure either to recognize autocorrelation or to accurately estimate its extent can cause substantial policy errors. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2003     

Casualty Rates of US Military Personnel During the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

Abstract

In Operation Iraqi Freedom, which ended in August 2010, nearly 3500 hostile deaths occurred among US military personnel and 32,000 more were wounded in action (WIA). More than 1800 hostile deaths occurred during Operation Enduring Freedom (in and around Afghanistan) through 2014 and about 20,000 were WIA. A larger proportion of wounded personnel survived in Iraq and Afghanistan than during the Vietnam War, but the increased survival rates were not as high as some studies have asserted. The survival rates were 90.2% in Iraq and 91.6% in Afghanistan, compared with 86.5% in Vietnam. The casualty rates varied between the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan and before, during, and after the respective surges. Amputation rates are difficult to measure consistently, but I estimate that 2.6% of all WIA and 9.0% of medically evacuated WIA from the Iraq and Afghanistan theaters combined resulted in the major loss of a limb. Elevated non-hostile death rates (including deaths due to accidents, illnesses, homicides, or suicides) resulted in about 220 more deaths in Iraq and about 200 more deaths in Afghanistan than would have been expected in peacetime among populations of the size deployed to those two conflicts.     

Solving time/cost trade-off problems with discounted cash flows using generalized benders decomposition

In this article we consider a project scheduling problem where there are cash flows throughout the life of the project and where shorter activity durations can be attained by incurring greater direct costs. In particular, the objective of this problem is to determine the activity durations and a schedule of activity start times so that the net present value of cash flows is maximized. We formulate this problem as a mixed-integer nonlinear program which is amenable to solution using the generalized Benders decomposition technique developed by Geoffrion. We test the algorithm on 140 project scheduling problems, the largest of which contains 30 nodes and 64 activities. Our computational results are quite encouraging inasmuch as 123 of the 140 problems require less than 1 CPU second of solution time. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Engineering costs and customer costs in designing product support

Product support encompasses activities undertaken by durable goods producers to ensure their customers the continued use of the product. Examples of product support elements include after the sale activities such as providing repair services and warranty programs, as well as all the activities undertaken at the design and production stage to improve the reliability of products before they reach the market. The implications of incorporating customer costs while designing product support packages are the concern of this study. We study how the parameters of support package impact the costs incurred by customers and provide insights about selecting appropriate levels of product support. We show that the engineering orientation of maximizing the product's availability ignores market characteristics, and results in a mismatch between the corporation's support package and the customer's needs. The research is intended to be a step in understanding the interaction between design engineering parameters and customer's costs. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Steady-state approximation of a multiechelon multi-indentured repairable-item inventory system with a single repair facility

We model a two-echelon multi-indentured repairable-item inventory system where each “base” has a maximum number of identical online machines, and each machine consists of several module types. Machine failures are due to module failures and occur according to an exponential distribution. When a machine fails, the failed module is replaced by an identical spare module if one is available. Otherwise, the module is backordered. All failed modules go to a single “depot” repair facility which consists of a finite number of identical repairmen who are able to repair any module type in an exponentially distributed time, although the repair rates for different module types may differ. The principal contribution of this article is an approximation algorithm for calculating the steady-state characteristics of the system. In comparison with simulation results, the algorithm is quite accurate and computationally efficient. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Violence and the state: Lessons from Colombia

Whether or not Colombia has improved is a controversial topic. If improvement has occurred, what, if any, lessons from the Colombian model can be learned? The first lesson is that Colombia's problems were caused more by a weak state than by drugs. The second lesson is that improving state capacity requires more than just increased security. The state must also provide the basic social services that citizens require to gain and maintain their support. Additionally, government institutions need to improve their professionalism, protect human rights, and root out impunity and corruption. The alternative is to suffer from new cycles of violence as old foes are vanquished, but new ones emerge.     

The Demand for Military Spending in Egypt

Egypt plays a pivotal role in the security of the Middle East as the doorway to Europe and its military expenditure reflects its involvement in the machinations of such an unstable region, showing considerable variation over the last 40?years. These characteristics make it a particularly interesting case study of the determinants of military spending. This paper specifies and estimates an econometric model of the Egyptian demand for military spending, taking into account important strategic and political factors. Both economic and strategic factors are found to play a role in determining military burden/spending, with clear positive effects of lagged military burden, suggesting some sort of institutional inertia, plus negative output and net exports effects. The strategic effect as a result of the impact of Israel’s military burden is mostly positive and significant, though its impact is reduced when the impact of important strategic events are taken into account. The military spending of Egypt’s allies Jordan and Syria generally seems to have had no effect on Egypt’s spending. These results are consistent over a range of econometric techniques.     

Economic Competition and Nuclear Cooperation

The number of bilateral nuclear cooperation agreements surged during the “nuclear renaissance” of the past decade. This proliferation is only partially explained by the prevailing approaches that focus on strategic imperatives. To supplement these explanations, this study draws on neoliberal models of economic competition to posit that bilateral agreement negotiations also exhibit conditions of “uncoordinated interdependence” and maneuvering to gain market share. Case evidence suggests the contours of supplier state bids for civilian assistance are determined at least as much by considerations about economic competition as they are by positive strategic goals. In addition, this study identifies several cases of cooperation where there appears to be little or no strategic motive for export agreements. The study concludes that patterns of economic competition and the influence of peers in defined competitive spaces alter material payoffs and impact policies. It also identifies a surprising role for principled restraint in dampening strategic and economic competition in some dyads.     

高速下的外压式空气轴颈轴承研究

本文基于有限元方法,针对不同的速度参数和离心率,采用一种直接的数字方法来计算多孔外压空气轴颈轴承的性能指标,并把模拟结果同参考资料上一种空气心轴轴颈轴承的计算进行了比较。