Maintenance of a device with age-dependent exponential failures

We consider a device that deteriorates over time according to a Markov process so that the failure rate at each state is constant. The reliability of the device is characterized by a Markov renewal equation, and an IFRA (increasing failure rate on average) property of the lifetime is obtained. The optimal replacement and repair problems are analyzed under various cost structures. Furthermore, intuitive and counterintuitive characterizations of the optimal policies and results on some interesting special problems are presented. © 1992 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

An exact ceiling point algorithm for general integer linear programming

We present an algorithm called the exact ceiling point algorithm (XCPA) for solving the pure, general integer linear programming problem (P). A recent report by the authors demonstrates that, if the set of feasible integer solutions for (P) is nonempty and bounded, all optimal solutions for (P) are “feasible 1-ceiling points,” roughly, feasible integer solutions lying on or near the boundary of the feasible region for the LP-relaxation associated with (P). Consequently, the XCPA solves (P) by implicitly enumerating only feasible 1-ceiling points, making use of conditional bounds and “double backtracking.” We discuss the results of computational testing on a set of 48 problems taken from the literature.     

On the bivariate negative binomial distribution of mitchell and paulson

The bivariate negative binomial distribution of Mitchell and Paulson [17] for the case b = c = 0 is shown to be equivalent to the accident proneness model of Edwards and Gurland [4] and Subrahmaniam [19,20]. The diagonal series expansion of its joint probability function is then derived. Two other formulations of this distribution are also considered: (i) as a mixture model, which showed how it arises as the discrete analogue to the Wicksell-Kibble bivariate gamma distribution, and (ii) as a consequence of the linear birth-and-death process with immigration.     

A reliability model with states of partial operation

This article generalizes the classical dichotomic reliability model to include states of partial operation. The generalized model can be considered as a special case of a general jump process. Both continuous and discrete state spaces are included. The relationship to cumulative damage shock models is discussed. Properties of the model are investigated and these are illustrated via examples. The equivalence of three forms of component independence is proved, but this equivalence does not generalize to the property of zero covariance. Alternative forms of series and parallel connections and the effect of component replacement are discussed.     

An application of empirical bayes techniques to the simultaneous estimation of many probabilities

Consider the following situation: Each of N different combat units is presented with a number of requirements to satisfy, each requirement being classified into one of K mutually exclusive categories. For each unit and each category, an estimate of the probability of that unit satisfying any requirement in that category is desired. The problem can be generally stated as that of estimating N different K-dimensional vectors of probabilities based upon a corresponding set of K-dimensional vectors of sample proportions. An empirical Bayes model is formulated and applied to an example from the Marine Corps Combat Readiness Evaluation System (MCCRES). The EM algorithm provides a convenient method of estimating the prior parameters. The Bayes estimates are compared to the ordinary estimates, i.e., the sample proportions, by means of cross validation, and the Bayes estimates are shown to provide considerable improvement.     

When chaos reigns: responding to complex emergencies

This article discusses the impact of Complex Humanitarian Emergencies on the delivery of humanitarian aids. Complex emergencies were the results of long-term political and social disputes. Its impact brings about public health crises like epidemics, malnutrition, and even widespread desperation. In fact, there are four aspects of these crises which complicate public health programs: 1) emergencies are long and recurring; 2) access to the most vulnerable population is often restricted; 3) restructuring health systems in complex emergencies can be futile; and 4) complex emergencies often result in mass forced migration. What makes matters worse is the breakdown of health networks which collapse early in complex emergencies, leading to extensive losses of human health resources. Not only that, health facilities and transportation, infrastructure are often decimated in complex emergencies, and regional hospitals, district health posts, laboratories, and primary care outposts are similarly abandoned or destroyed. Moreover, because it is difficult to predict the course of these emergencies, ascertaining the optimal time to intervene and to invest in materials and facilities that could be lost to renewed fighting can be impossible. To solve this problem requires a coordinated effort. It should also focus on resources, early warning systems, preparedness measures, ongoing career training of relief workers, and prepositioning of relief supplies.     

Approximate decision rules for continuous review inventory systems

Constrained multi-item inventory models have long presented signifcant computational problems. This article presents a general algorithm to obtain simultaneous solutions for order quantities and safety stocks for each line item in an inventory, while satisfying constraints on average inventory investment and reordering workload. Computational experience is presented that demonstrates the algorithm's efficiency in handling large-scale applications. Decision rules for several customer service objectives are developed, with a discussion of the characteristics of the inventory systems in which each objective would be most appropriate. The decision rules are approximations, based on the assumptions commonly used in practice.