Optimal nonmyopic gambling strategy for the generalized Kelly criterion

We consider the optimal wagers to be made by a gambler who starts with a given initial wealth. The gambler faces a sequence of two-outcome games, i.e., “win” vs. “lose,” and wishes to maximize the expected value of his terminal utility. It has been shown by Kelly, Bellman, and others that if the terminal utility is of the form log x, where x is the terminal wealth, then the optimal policy is myopic, i.e., the optimal wager is always to bet a constant fraction of the wealth provided that the probability of winning exceeds the probability of losing. In this paper we provide a critique of the simple logarithmic assumption for the utility of terminal wealth and solve the problem with a more general utility function. We show that in the general case, the optimal policy is not myopic, and we provide analytic expressions for optimal wager decisions in terms of the problem parameters. We also provide conditions under which the optimal policy reduces to the simple myopic case. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 639–654, 1997     

基于改进CNN的红外目标识别方法研究

自动目标识别是红外成像精确制导武器系统的关键技术,针对传统红外目标识别算法在复杂环境作战中存在目标特征建模复杂、识别率低等问题,提出一种基于改进的卷积神经网络(Convolutional Neural Network,CNN)方法。结合红外目标特性,调整ZFNet的卷积层和池化层数量,加入空间变换网络以提高对数据变换的鲁棒性;对Dropout层的丢弃率变化进行可视化分析并确定选取原则,以提高红外目标的识别率。通过试验结果与传统方法相比,该方法具有较高的识别率,能够为红外成像导引头目标识别算法设计提供参考。     

高速精密混合陶瓷轴承套圈加工误差产生原因及工艺改进方法

分析了高速精密混合陶瓷轴承套圈磨削及超精加工过程中误差产生的原因及对后续工序的影响,针对不同工序中误差产生的原因,提出了减小加工误差的工艺改进措施。在磨削加工阶段,引入了双端面磨削加工方法;建立了外圆无心磨削工件中心最佳高度计算模型;根据无心磨削复映规律,提出了减小复映误差的具体措施,并验证了其合理性。在超精加工阶段,提出了采用分阶段选取不同参数的方法来提高超精加工的精度。     

Continuous sampling plans for markov-dependent production processes

This article discusses the behavior of three continuous sampling plans: continuous sampling plan 1 (CSP 1) and continuous sampling plan 2 (CSP 2) developed by Dodge [5] and Dodge and Torrey [7], and multilevel continuous sampling plan 2 (MLP 2) developed by Lieberman and Solomon [11], when the quality of successive units in a continuous production process follows a two-state time-homogeneous Markov chain. We first derive the average outgoing quality (AOQ) expressions of these plans. Exact procedures for determining the average outgoing quality limit (AOQL) can be obtained only for CSP 1. For CSP 2 and MLP 2 plans, iterative procedures have been used to obtain the AOQL contours. For these plans, it is assumed that the serial correlation coefficient between the two consecutive random variables of the Markov chain is known. In addition, estimation procedures for the coefficient are given. We show that if the serial correlation coefficient of the Markov chain is positive (negative), the AOQL is increased (decreased) as compared to the case when the successive units in the production process follows a Bernoulli pattern. Let r denote the number of production units examined in succession which are found to be of good quality and k denote the inverse of the sampling fraction employed when quality is good. Then if r and k are sufficiently small, it is observed from the graph that, for small departures of the serial correlation coefficient from zero, the AOQL values do not differ significantly for each of the three plans; whereas for sufficiently large values of r and k, the AOQL values differ significantly. Various aspects of these plans, such as their operating characteristics 2 (OC 2) and the serial correlation coefficient, are discussed.     

Markovian multiechelon repairable inventory system

In this article we model a two-echelon (two levels of repair, one level of supply) repairable-item inventory system using continuous-time Markov processes. We analyze two models. In the first model we assume a system with a single base. In the second model we expand this model to include n bases. The Markov approach gives rise to multidimensional state spaces that are large even for relatively small problems. Because of this, we utilize aggregate/disaggregate techniques to develop a solution algorithm for finding the steady-state distribution. This algorithm is exact for the single-base model and is an approximation for the n-base model, in which case it is found to be very accurate and computationally very efficient.     

Delivery‐date and capacity management in a decentralized internal market

We study competitive due‐date and capacity management between the marketing and engineering divisions within an engineer‐to‐order (ETO) firm. Marketing interacts directly with the customers and quotes due‐dates for their orders. Engineering is primarily concerned with the efficient utilization of resources and is willing to increase capacity if the cost is compensated. The two divisions share the responsibility for timely delivery of the jobs. We model the interaction between marketing and engineering as a Nash game and investigate the effect of internal competition on the equilibrium decisions. We observe that the internal competition not only degrades the firm's overall profitability but also the serviceability. Finally, we extend our analysis to multiple‐job settings that consider both flexible and inflexible capacity. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

China’s Search for a ‘Strategic Air Force’

Once dismissed by many outside observers, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has undergone an impressive transformation over the past two decades, emerging as one of the world’s premier air forces. As it continues to modernize, it is focused on becoming a ‘strategic air force.’ PLAAF strategists suggest this means it should play a decisive role in protecting Chinese national interests, field modern capabilities commensurate with China’s standing as a major power, and enjoy the institutional status befitting its role as a ‘strategic service,’ an important consideration given the historical dominance of the ground force in China’s military.     

Minimizing absolute and squared deviations of completion times with different earliness and tardiness penalties and a common due date

We consider a single-machine scheduling problem in which all jobs have the same due date and penalties are assessed for both early and late completion of jobs. However, earliness and tardiness are penalized at different rates. The scheduling objective is to minimize either the weighted sum of absolute deviations (WSAD) or the weighted sum of squared deviations (WSSD). For each objective we consider two versions of the problem. In the unconstrained version an increase in the due date does not yield any further decrease in the objective function. We present a constructive algorithm for the unconstrained WSAD problem and show that this problem is equivalent to the two-parallel, nonidentical machine, mean flow-time problem. For the unconstrained WSSD and the constrained WSAD and WSSD problems we propose implicit enumeration procedures based on several dominance conditions. We also report on our computational experience with the enumeration procedures.