Optimal nonmyopic gambling strategy for the generalized Kelly criterion

We consider the optimal wagers to be made by a gambler who starts with a given initial wealth. The gambler faces a sequence of two-outcome games, i.e., “win” vs. “lose,” and wishes to maximize the expected value of his terminal utility. It has been shown by Kelly, Bellman, and others that if the terminal utility is of the form log x, where x is the terminal wealth, then the optimal policy is myopic, i.e., the optimal wager is always to bet a constant fraction of the wealth provided that the probability of winning exceeds the probability of losing. In this paper we provide a critique of the simple logarithmic assumption for the utility of terminal wealth and solve the problem with a more general utility function. We show that in the general case, the optimal policy is not myopic, and we provide analytic expressions for optimal wager decisions in terms of the problem parameters. We also provide conditions under which the optimal policy reduces to the simple myopic case. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 639–654, 1997     

Convex envelope results and strong formulations for a class of mixed-integer programs

In this article we present a novel technique for deriving the convex envelope of certain nonconvex fixed-charge functions of the type that arise in several related applications that have been considered in the literature. One common attribute of these problems is that they involve choosing levels for the undertaking of several activities. Two or more activities share a common resource, and a fixed charge is incurred when any of these activities is undertaken at a positive level. We consider nonconvex programming formulations for these problems in which the fixed charges are expressed in the form of concave functions. With the use of the developed convex envelope results, we show that the convex envelope relaxations of the nonconvex formulations lead to the linear programming relaxations of the strong IP/MIP formulations of these problems. Moreover, our technique for deriving convex envelopes offers a useful construct that could be exploited in other related contexts as well. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

A bayesian approach to environmental stress screening

The article presents a Bayesian analysis for the environmental stress screening problem. The decision problem of deriving optimal stress screen durations is solved. Given a screen duration, the optimal stress level can also be determined. Indicators of the quality of a screen of any duration are derived. A statistical model is presented which allows a posterior density for the rate of early failures of the production process to be calculated. This enables the user to update his opinion about the quality of the process. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

A multiserver queue with markovian arrivals and group services with thresholds

We consider a multiserver queueing system in which arrivals are governed by a Markovian arrival process. The system is attended by K identical exponential servers. Under a dynamic probabilistic service rule which depends on two threshold parameters, this model is studied as a Markov process. The steady-state probability vector is shown to be of (modified) matrix-geometric type. Efficient algorithmic procedures for the computation of the steady-state probability vector and some key performance measures of the system are developed. Some numerical examples are discussed. © 1993 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Optimal layered search

This article investigates the problem of planning an optimal layered search for a stationary target. A search is layered if it assigns each point in the search space an integer number of glimpses or looks. General necessary and sufficient conditions and an existence theorem are obtained. The special case in which the initial target distribution is bivariate normal is considered in detail.     

A model for critical crack size estimation in fatigue failure of gun barrels

With repeated firing, fatigue cracks are produced in a gun barrel, and the barrel is no longer useful when a crack reaches a critical size. The initial crack size and the critical crack size, as well as the number of firings producing the critical crack size, may be considered as random variables. Assuming a proportional damage model for crack growth, a method for estimating the critical crack size distribution is presented. From these results, an estimate of the barrel life, or the residual barrel life once a crack of a given size is measured, can be obtained.     

A finite capacity GI/PH/1 queue with group services

We consider a finite-capacity single-server queue in which arrivals occur one at a time, according to a renewal process. The successive service times are mutually independent and have a common phase-type distribution. The customers are served in groups of size at least L, a preassigned threshold value. Explicit analytic expressions for the steady-state queue-length densities at arrivals and at arbitrary time points, and the throughput of the system are obtained. The Laplace-Stieltjes transform of the stationary waiting-time distribution of an admitted customer at points of arrivals is computed. It is shown to be of phase type when the arrival process is also of phase type. Efficient algorithmic procedures for the steady-state analysis of the model are presented. These procedures are used in arriving at an optimal value for L that minimizes the mean waiting time of an admitted customer. A conjecture on the nature of the mean waiting time is proposed.     

Markovian multiechelon repairable inventory system

In this article we model a two-echelon (two levels of repair, one level of supply) repairable-item inventory system using continuous-time Markov processes. We analyze two models. In the first model we assume a system with a single base. In the second model we expand this model to include n bases. The Markov approach gives rise to multidimensional state spaces that are large even for relatively small problems. Because of this, we utilize aggregate/disaggregate techniques to develop a solution algorithm for finding the steady-state distribution. This algorithm is exact for the single-base model and is an approximation for the n-base model, in which case it is found to be very accurate and computationally very efficient.