Assessing military reform in Indonesia

This article seeks to assess the magnitude of military reform in Indonesia and its impact in establishing greater levels of professionalism within the armed forces. To this end, the authors will offer some reflections on the studies of civil-military relations and military transformation for inculcating a higher degree of military professionalism; analyse to what extent the process of military reform in Indonesia has reshaped the institutional role of the armed forces; and discern three major strategic gaps in Indonesia's military reform, namely the “legal loopholes and regulation vacuum,” the “shortcomings of democratic civilian control,” and the “defence-economic gap.” This article asserts that military professionalism will grow more substantially depending on the ability of civilian elites to exercise effective control over the military and the capacity of the government to transform the military establishment keeping pace with strategic challenges and operational requirements.     

Staying Power and the American Future: Problems of Primacy,Policy, and Grand Strategy

Many scholars, strategists and pundits contend that the US is in decline. They argue that America's national capabilities are significantly eroding, and that with the rise of important regional powers, its primacy in world affairs is rapidly diminishing as well. Yet America continues to possess significant advantages in critical sectors such as economic size, technology, competitiveness, demography, force size, power projection, military technology, and in the societal capacity to innovate and adapt. This article argues that the nature of material problems has been overstated, and that the US should be able to withstand modest erosion in its relative strength for some time to come without losing its predominant status. Instead, where limits to American primacy do exist, they are as or more likely to be ideational as they are material. The problem inheres as much or more in elite and societal beliefs, policy choices, and political will, as in economic, technological or manpower limitations at home, or the rise of peer competitors abroad.     

Technical note: Finite-time regret analysis of Kiefer-Wolfowitz stochastic approximation algorithm and nonparametric multi-product dynamic pricing with unknown demand

We consider the problem of nonparametric multi-product dynamic pricing with unknown demand and show that the problem may be formulated as an online model-free stochastic program, which can be solved by the classical Kiefer-Wolfowitz stochastic approximation (KWSA) algorithm. We prove that the expected cumulative regret of the KWSA algorithm is bounded above by where κ₁, κ₂ are positive constants and T is the number of periods for any T = 1, 2, … . Therefore, the regret of the KWSA algorithm grows in the order of , which achieves the lower bounds known for parametric dynamic pricing problems and shows that the nonparametric problems are not necessarily more difficult to solve than the parametric ones. Numerical experiments further demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our proposed KW pricing policy by comparing with some pricing policies in the literature.     

Managerial inventory formulations with stockout objectives and fiscal constraints

Most inventory formulations seek to minimize the sum of ordering costs, holding costs, and stockout costs: however, management often directs inventory policy by specifying a maximum investment level and/or a purchasing budget constraint. Within these limitations, they expect lower level managers to optimize some level of customer satisfaction, such as minimum stockouts or minimum shortages. The author has developed several cases of these “managerial” inventory formulations and has presented some computational results.     

Large deviations of the winsorized mean of an exponential distribution

An asymptotic representation for large deviation probabilities of the Winsorized mean of a sequence of independent, identically distributed exponential random variables is derived. The Winsorized mean, a linear combination of exponential order statistics, is first transformed into a weighted sum of exponential random variables, and then a large deviation theorem for weighted sums can be applied. The representation obtained is then compared with results already known for the mean and the median, the two extreme cases of the Winsorized mean.     

Optimization of strategic defenses to provide specified post-attack production capacities

This paper presents a model for choosing a minimum-cost mix of strategic defenses to assure that specified production capacities for several economic sectors survive after a nuclear attack. The defender selects a mix of strategic defenses for each of several geographic regions. The attacker chooses an allocation of attacking weapons to geographic regions, within specified weapon inventories. The attack is optimized against any economic sector. This formulation allows the defense planner the capability to assess the results of the optimal defense structure for a “worst case” attack. The model is a mathematical program with nonlinear programming problems in the constraints; an example of its application is given and is solved using recently developed optimization techniques.     

Variations on a cutting plane method for solving concave minimization problems with linear constraints

A cutting plane method for solving concave minimization problems with linear constraints has been advanced by Tui. The principle behind this cutting plane has been applied to integer programming by Balas, Young, Glover, and others under the name of convexity cuts. This paper relates the question of finiteness of Tui's method to the so-called generalized lattice point problem of mathematical programming and gives a sufficient condition for terminating Tui's method. The paper then presents several branch-and-bound algorithms for solving concave minimization problems with linear constraints with the Tui cut as the basis for the algorithm. Finally, some computational experience is reported for the fixed-charge transportation problem.     

Inference from accelerated life tests using eyring type re-parameterizations

Least squares estimators of the parameters of the generalized Eyring Model are obtained by using data from censored life tests conducted at several accelerated environments. These estimators are obtained after establishing that the Gauss-Markov conditions for least squares estimation are satisfied. Confidence intervals for the hazard rate at use conditions are obtained after empirically showing that the logarithm of the estimate of the hazard rate at use conditions is approximately normally distributed. The coverage probabilities of the confidence intervals are also verified by a Monte Carlo experiment. The techniques are illustrated by an application to some real data.