Confidence bounds and propagation of uncertainties in system availability and reliability computations

This paper develops bounds on the uncertainties in system availabilities or reliabilities which have been computed from structural (series, parallel, etc.) relations among uncertain subsystem availabilities or reliabilities. It is assumed that the highly available (reliable) subsystems have been tested or simulated to determine their unavailabilities (unreliabilities) to within some small percentages of uncertainty. It is shown that series, parallel and r out of n structures which are nominally highly available will have unavailability uncertainties whose percentages errors are of the same order as the subsystem uncertainties. Thus overall system analysis errors, even for large systems, are of the same order of magnitude as the uncertainties in the component probabilities. Both systematic (bias type) uncertainties and independent random uncertainties are considered.     

A network isolation algorithm

A set of edges D called an isolation set, is said to isolate a set of nodes R from an undirected network if every chain between the nodes in R contains at least one edge from the set D. Associated with each edge of the network is a positive cost. The isolation problem is concerned with finding an isolation set such that the sum of its edge costs is a minimum. This paper formulates the problem of determining the minimal cost isolation as a 0–1 integer linear programming problem. An algorithm is presented which applies a branch and bound enumerative scheme to a decomposed linear program whose dual subproblems are minimal cost network flow problems. Computational results are given. The problem is also formulated as a special quadratic assignment problem and an algorithm is presented that finds a local optimal solution. This local solution is used for an initial bound.     

Optimal multicommodity network flows with resource allocation

The problem of determining multicommodity flows over a capacitated network subject to resource constraints may be solved by linear programming; however, the number of potential vectors in most applications is such that the standard arc-chain formulation becomes impractical. This paper describes an approach—an extension of the column generation technique used in the multicommodity network flow problem—that simultaneously considers network chain selection and resource allocation, thus making the problem both manageable and optimal. The flow attained is constrained by resource availability and network capacity. A minimum-cost formulation is described and an extension to permit the substitution of resources is developed. Computational experience with the model is discussed.     

A combined approach to solve binary multicriteria problems

An implicit enumeration algorithm is developed to determine the set of efficient points in zero-one multiple criteria problems. The algorithm is specialized for the solution of a particular class of facility location problems. The procedure is complemented with the use of the utility function of the decision maker to identify a subset of efficient point candidates for the final selection. Computational results are provided and discussed.     

An alternative proof of the IFRA property of some shock models

Let , where A (t)/t is nondecreasing in t, {P(k)^1/k} is nonincreasing. It is known that H(t) = 1 — H (t) is an increasing failure rate on the average (IFRA) distribution. A proof based on the IFRA closure theorem is given. H(t) is the distribution of life for systems undergoing shocks occurring according to a Poisson process where P (k) is the probability that the system survives k shocks. The proof given herein shows there is an underlying connection between such models and monotone systems of independent components that explains the IFRA life distribution occurring in both models.     

On a search for a moving target

We consider the problem of searching for a target that moves in discrete time and space according to some Markovian process. At each time, a searcher attempts to detect the target. If the searcher's action at each time is such as to maximize his chances of immediate detection, we call his strategy “myopic.” We provide a computationally useful necessary condition for optimality, and use it to provide an example wherein the myopic strategy is not optimal.     

Statistical analysis of the output data from terminating simulations

In this paper we precisely define the two types of simulations (terminating and steady-state) with regard to analysis of simulation output and discuss some common measures of performance for each type. In addition, we conclude, on the basis of discussions with many simulation practitioners, that both types of simulations are important in practice. This is contrary to the impression one gets from reading the simulation literature, where the steady-state case is almost exclusively considered. Although analyses of terminating simulations are considerably easier than are those of steady-state simulations, they have not received a careful treatment in the literature. We discuss and give empirical results for fixed sample size, relative width, and absolute width procedures that can be used for constructing confidence intervals for measures of performance in the terminating case.     

A note on integer linear fractional programming

This note consists of developing a method for enforcing additional constraints to linear fractional programs and showing its usefulness in solving integer linear fractional programs.