Alleviating time inconsistent behaviors via a competition scheme

Under quasi‐hyperbolic discounting, the valuation of a payoff falls relatively rapidly for earlier delay periods, but then falls more slowly for longer delay periods. When the salespersons with quasi‐hyperbolic discounting consider the product sale problem, they would exert less effort than their early plan, thus resulting in losses of future profit. We propose a winner‐takes‐all competition to alleviate the above time inconsistent behaviors of the salespersons, and allow the company to maximize its revenue by choosing an optimal bonus. To evaluate the effects of the competition scheme, we define the group time inconsistency degree of the salespersons, which measures the consequence of time inconsistent behaviors, and two welfare measures, the group welfare of the salespersons and the company revenue. We show that the competition always improves the group welfare and the company revenue as long as the company chooses to run the competition in the first place. However, the effect on group time inconsistency degree is mixed. When the optimal bonus is moderate (extreme high), the competition motivates (over‐motivates) the salesperson to work hard, thus alleviates (worsens) the time inconsistent behaviors. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 357–372, 2017     

基于Delphi-BP神经网络的装备保障能力评估

针对评估指标数量过多可能给评估过程及结果带来的弊端,在构建装备保障能力评估指标体系基础上,给出了基于Delphi法的指标体系筛选的方法步骤,通过计算累计贡献率,对指标体系进行了筛选,降低了评估模型的输入维度。建立了评估部队装备保障能力的三层BP神经网络模型,利用Matlab神经网络工具箱对网络进行了训练和仿真,结果显示误差小于10-3。最后,通过对比评估,验证了方法的有效性和正确性。     

周恩来在南昌起义前后的理论贡献

在中国革命史上,周恩来是一位伟大的马克思主义者和无产阶级革命家、杰出的政治家和外交家,同时,也是一位杰出的军事家.他很早就认识到军队对于中国革命的重要性,大革命时期就重视革命军队的创建工作,后来对红军的建设和发展都作出了卓越的贡献.     

基于系统动力学的装备保障体制系统仿真分析

装备保障体制系统具有复杂性、动态性和非线性等特点,构建了三级装备保障体制的SD仿真理想模型和仿真延迟模型。充分考虑保障系统生成各要素之间都具有的反馈性和时滞性,通过模型仿真对三级装备保障系统的稳定性进行了分析,并指出了建立二级装备保障体制的条件,分析了军民联合的保障机制对保持保障系统稳定性的重要作用。最后基于仿真结果提出了装备保障体制建设方面的几点建议。     

基于FEM/SPH算法的弹丸侵彻土体数值模拟

基于有限元法(FEM)和光滑粒子流体动力学(SPH)结合的算法,用数值模拟了钢质弹丸对钢筒约束土体的侵彻过程。基于ANSYS/LS-DYNA显式动力分析和LS-PrePost后处理软件,形象再现了钢质弹丸冲击作用下土体飞溅形成漏斗坑和直线通道的物理过程。侵彻深度计算结果与实验数据吻合较好,钢质弹丸的速度和加速度时程曲线图与理论分析一致,体现了FEM/SPH算法的精确性。研究结果表明FEM/SPH算法在模拟侵彻土体方面具有可行性和有效性。     

钢管在冲击荷载作用下的变形与失效破坏

为研究钢管在弹体侵彻过程中的变形特点,基于ANSYS/LS-DYNA软件,采用Johnson-Cook模型,模拟了半球形弹体以不同速度正向冲击钢管时的非线性动力响应情况。结果表明：弹体速度越小,钢管的抗侵彻性能越好;弹体速度越接近临界破坏速度,钢管降低弹体速度的能力就越明显;弹体冲击钢管时,钢管上表面比下表面更容易产生大变形,消耗更多的弹体动能,并在抗侵彻过程中伴有局部凹陷、蝶形变形和贯穿现象。实验结果可为圆柱壳结构钢管在冲击荷载作用下的耗能分析提供参考。     

Approximation algorithms for capacitated stochastic inventory systems with setup costs

We develop the first approximation algorithm with worst‐case performance guarantee for capacitated stochastic periodic‐review inventory systems with setup costs. The structure of the optimal control policy for such systems is extremely complicated, and indeed, only some partial characterization is available. Thus, finding provably near‐optimal control policies has been an open challenge. In this article, we construct computationally efficient approximate optimal policies for these systems whose demands can be nonstationary and/or correlated over time, and show that these policies have a worst‐case performance guarantee of 4. We demonstrate through extensive numerical studies that the policies empirically perform well, and they are significantly better than the theoretical worst‐case guarantees. We also extend the analyses and results to the case with batch ordering constraints, where the order size has to be an integer multiple of a base load. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 304–319, 2014     

双机组浮筏装置减振效果估算研究

研究了双机组浮筏装置减振效果的估算问题,并给出了相应的计算公式。理论分析和实验结果表明,该公式能对实际的双机组浮筏装置减振效果给出较好的估算。     

马陵之战对《孙子兵法》的运用

马陵之战的胜利,是孙膑运用《孙子兵法》的结果;马陵之战的成功,验证了《孙子兵法》的经典。马陵之战对《孙子兵法》的运用,当给今人以思索和启示。     

压入管桩压桩所致挤土位移的数值模拟

采用位移贯入法施加荷载,以修正剑桥模型作为土体本构关系模型,通过在桩-土界面设置接触面并采用自定义初始孔隙比分布的子程序VOIDRI实现初始孔隙比随深度的非线性分布,建立较为符合压入管桩压桩实际的有限元模型,对压入管桩压桩产生的挤土位移进行数值模拟研究,讨论压入管桩压桩产生的竖向和水平挤土位移沿深度方向和径向的分布规律。研究结果表明:随径向距离的增大,浅层土体的竖向挤土位移逐渐由沉降变为隆起,而深层土体的竖向挤土位移始终表现为沉降;随深度的增大,至桩中心距离较小处土体的竖向挤土位移始终表现为沉降,而至桩中心距离较大处土体的竖向挤土位移逐渐由隆起变为沉降;不同深度土体的水平挤土位移沿径向的分布规律和不同径向距离土体的水平挤土位移沿深度方向的分布规律都趋于一致。最后提出能够有效减小压入管桩挤土效应的施工措施。