Deterministic chaos in a model of discrete manufacturing

A natural extension of the bucket brigade model of manufacturing is capable of chaotic behavior in which the product intercompletion times are, in effect, random, even though the model is completely deterministic. This is, we believe, the first proven instance of chaos in discrete manufacturing. Chaotic behavior represents a new challenge to the traditional tools of engineering management to reduce variability in production lines. Fortunately, if configured correctly, a bucket brigade assembly line can avoid such pathologies. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009     

Optimizing fishbone aisles for dual‐command operations in a warehouse

Unit‐load warehouses store and retrieve unit‐loads, typically pallets. When storage and retrieval operations are not coordinated, travel is from a pickup and deposit (P&D) point to a pallet location and back again. In some facilities, workers interleave storage and retrieval operations to form a dual‐command cycle. Two new aisle designs proposed by Gue and Meller (“Improving the unit‐load warehouse.” In Progress in Material Handling Research: 2006. Material Handling Industry of America, Charlotte, NC, 2006) use diagonal aisles to reduce the travel distance to a single pallet location by approximately 10 and 20[percnt] for the two designs, respectively. We develop analytical expressions for travel between pallet locations for one of these—the fishbone design. We then compare fishbone warehouses that have been optimized for dual‐command to traditional warehouses that have been optimized in the same manner, and show that an optimal fishbone design reduces dual‐command travel by 10–15%. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 54: 389–403, 2009     

An economic sequential screening procedure for limited failure populations

An economic sequential screening procedure is considered for limited failure populations in which defective items fail soon after they are put in operation and nondefective ones never fail during the technical life of the items. A cost model is constructed that involves screening test cost and external failure cost. A sequential scheme that minimizes the expected cost is derived from the solution of a dynamic programming formulation and the optimal decision at each stage is obtained in a closed form. © 1994 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Optimal sequential replenishment of ships during combat

A carrier battle group is operating in an area where it is subject to attack by enemy aircraft. It is anticipated that air raids will occur in large waves. The uncertain time between raids is available for the replenishment of supplies. We consider the problem of how best to schedule ammunition replenishment during this period. The theory of Gittins indices provides the technical background to the development of a range of models which yield a hierarchy of index-based heuristics for replenishment. One such heuristic is assessed computationally in a more realistic scenario than is explicitly allowed for by the models.     

Diffusion approximation to the G/G/R machine repair problem with warm standby spares

The G/G/R machine repair problem with M operating machines, S warm standby spares, and R repairmen is studied as a diffusion process. The steady-state equations are formulated as diffusion equations subject to two reflecting barriers. The approximate diffusion parameters of the diffusion equations are obtained (1) under the assumption that the input characteristics of the problem are defined only by their first two moments rather than their probability distribution function, (2) under the assumption of heavy traffic approximation, that is, when queues of failed machines in the repair stage are almost always nonempty, and (3) using well-known asymptotic results from renewal theory. Expressions for the probability density functions of the number of failed machines in the system are obtained. A study of the derived approximate results, compared to some of the exact results, suggests that the diffusion approach provides a useful method for solving complex machine-repair problems.     

Single-machine scheduling of stochastic jobs subject to deterioration or delay

N jobs are available for processing by a single machine. Jobs make (stochastic) progress while being processed but deteriorate while awaiting processing. The pioneering work of Browne and Yechiali, who developed scheduling policies for such models, is extended (i) to incorporate a precedence relation on the job set, delimiting the class of admissible policies, and (ii) to preemptive scheduling models. For the latter, we demonstrate that under appropriate conditions there is an optimal policy which is nonpreemptive. This is also achieved for a class of preemptive models in which processing generates delays for waiting jobs. A single class of algorithms is shown to generate optimal policies for many of the problems considered. © 1992 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Bayesian inference for a Lanchester type combat model

We undertake inference for a stochastic form of the Lanchester combat model. In particular, given battle data, we assess the type of battle that occurred and whether or not it makes any difference to the number of casualties if an army is attacking or defending. Our approach is Bayesian and we use modern computational techniques to fit the model. We illustrate our method using data from the Ardennes campaign. We compare our results with previous analyses of these data by Bracken and Fricker. Our conclusions are somewhat different to those of Bracken. Where he suggests that a linear law is appropriate, we show that the logarithmic or linear‐logarithmic laws fit better. We note however that the basic Lanchester modeling assumptions do not hold for the Ardennes data. Using Fricker's modified data, we show that although his “super‐logarithmic” law fits best, the linear, linear‐logarithmic, and logarithmic laws cannot be ruled out. We suggest that Bayesian methods can be used to make inference for battles in progress. We point out a number of advantages: Prior information from experts or previous battles can be incorporated; predictions of future casualties are easily made; more complex models can be analysed using stochastic simulation techniques. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 541–558, 2000     

A theoretical justification for an increasing average failure rate strength distribution in fibrous composites

A general model for the failure of fibrous composite materials is described. It is shown to contain some of the well-known models in the literature. The composite material is viewed as a coherent system of independent identically distributed component strengths. Under the assumption that the applied load is redistributed “homotonically” to the unfailed components upon the failure of a component (an individual fiber segment) and that the distributions of component strengths are IFRA, it is shown that the system (composite) strength distribution is also IFRA. Examples are given using carbon reinforced composite data to illustrate the IFRA property.