Minimum deterrence and missile defenses: what's new,what's true,what's arguable

Minimum deterrence is a compromise, or halfway house, between nuclear abolition or nearly zero and assured destruction, the dominant paradigm for strategic nuclear arms control during and after the cold war. Minimum deterrence as applied to the current relationship between the United States and Russia would require downsizing the numbers of operationally deployed long-range nuclear weapons to 1000, or fewer, on each side. More drastic bilateral Russian–American reductions would require the cooperation of other nuclear weapons states in making proportional reductions in their own arsenals. In addition, US plans for European-based and global missile defenses cause considerable angst in Russia and threaten to derail the Obama “reset” in Russian–American relations, despite the uncertainties about current and plausible future performances of missile defense technologies.     

Cyclic preference scheduling for nurses using branch and price

This paper presents a new methodology to solve the cyclic preference scheduling problem for hourly workers. The focus is on nurse rostering but is applicable to any organization in which the midterm scheduling decision must take into account a complex of legal, institutional, and preferential constraints. The objective is to strike a balance between satisfying individual preferences and minimizing personnel costs. The common practice is to consider each planning period independently and to generate new rosters at the beginning of each. To reduce some of the instability in the process, there is a growing trend toward cyclic schedules, which are easier to manage and are generally perceived to be more equitable. To address this problem, a new integer programming model is presented that combines the elements of both cyclic and preference scheduling. To find solutions, a branch‐and‐price algorithm is developed that makes use of several branching rules and an extremely effective rounding heuristic. A unique feature of the formulation is that the master problem contains integer rather than binary variables. Computational results are reported for problem instances with up to 200 nurses. Most were solved within 10 minutes and many within 3 minutes when a double aggregation approach was applicable. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007.     

Solutions for a class of n-person games in partition function form

A unique polyhedral solution is given for most n-person games in partition function form when only partitions into coalitions with 1, n-1, and n players have large payoffs.     

A queuing process with bilevel hysteretic service-rate control

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effect of a particular control doctrine applied to the service mechanism of a queuing process. A bilevel hysteretic control based on queue length control levels is employed in an M/M/1 queuing system. Expressions are obtained for queue length probabilities, the first two factorial moments of queue length and two figures of merit for describing control performance under the assumption of statistical equilibrium. Computational examples illustrate the effects on queuing processes subject to this type of control. Several cost formulae are considered for comparison of costs when the queue control doctrine is varied. Situations in which hysteretic control is useful are discussed.     

An application of statistical techniques to estimate engineering man-hours on major aircraft programs

Data on 23 lots of various aircraft programs were gathered. Total engineering man-hours, and information on performance, weight, area, avionics systems, data, and schedule were subjected to least squares analysis. An equation is presented which indicates a relationship between total engineering manhours and a set of seven predictor variables. While the equation derived could only be used with confidence by the manufacturer whose data was analyzed, this article should be looked upon as demonstrating a method of data analysis which others may also find useful, not only for predicting engineering manhours in major aircraft programs, but also in other situations where there is an abundance of possible predictor variables, and the problem is to sort out a meaningful subset of these variables. In order to demonstrate the viability of the formula obtained, comparisons were made with various bid programs.     

Combining standardized time series area and Cramér–von Mises variance estimators

We propose three related estimators for the variance parameter arising from a steady‐state simulation process. All are based on combinations of standardized‐time‐series area and Cramér–von Mises (CvM) estimators. The first is a straightforward linear combination of the area and CvM estimators; the second resembles a Durbin–Watson statistic; and the third is related to a jackknifed version of the first. The main derivations yield analytical expressions for the bias and variance of the new estimators. These results show that the new estimators often perform better than the pure area, pure CvM, and benchmark nonoverlapping and overlapping batch means estimators, especially in terms of variance and mean squared error. We also give exact and Monte Carlo examples illustrating our findings.© 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007