Search and the introduction of improved technologies

Modeling R&D as standard sequential search, we consider a monopolist who can implement a sequence of technological discoveries during the technology search process: he earns revenue on his installed technology while he engages in R&D to find improved technology. What is not standard is that he has a finite number of opportunities to introduce improved technology. We show that his optimal policy is characterized by thresholds ξ_i(x): introduce the newly found technology if and only if it exceeds ξ_i(x) when x is the state of the currently installed technology and i is the number of remaining introductions allowed. We also analyze a nonstationary learning‐by‐doing model in which the monopolist's experience in implementing new technologies imparts increased capability in generating new technologies. Because this nonstationary model is not in the class of monotone stopping problems, a number of surprising results hold and several seemingly obvious properties of the stationary model no longer hold. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

On the application and extension of system signatures in engineering reliability

Following a review of the basic ideas in structural reliability, including signature‐based representation and preservation theorems for systems whose components have independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) lifetimes, extensions that apply to the comparison of coherent systems of different sizes, and stochastic mixtures of them, are obtained. It is then shown that these results may be extended to vectors of exchangeable random lifetimes. In particular, for arbitrary systems of sizes m < n with exchangeable component lifetimes, it is shown that the distribution of an m‐component system's lifetime can be written as a mixture of the distributions of k‐out‐of‐n systems. When the system has n components, the vector of coefficients in this mixture representation is precisely the signature of the system defined in Samaniego, IEEE Trans Reliabil R–34 (1985) 69–72. These mixture representations are then used to obtain new stochastic ordering properties for coherent or mixed systems of different sizes. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

De-Constructing the French Wars: Napoleon as Anti-Strategist

The Emperor Napoleon I is regarded as one of the greatest generals of all time and, as such, he has attracted an immense bibliography. In spite of this, there have been few studies of him as a strategist: instead, it is simply assumed that it was enough for the Emperor to have conducted an operation for it to have had a logical strategic goal. In this article, however, Napoleon is shown to have been primarily an opportunist, who was frequently guided by the needs of the moment and swayed from his course by circumstance, while it is further suggested that, even considered on their own merits, many of his decisions were faulty in the extreme.     

Traitor or patriot? Andrey Vlasov and the Russian liberation movement 1942–45

Catherine Andreyev, Vlasov and the Russian Liberation Movement: Soviet Reality and Emigre Theories. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1987. Pp.251; $34.50.

Sergej Froehlich, General Wlassow: Russen und Deutsche zwischen Hitler und Stalin (revised and edited by Edel von Freier). Koeln: Markus Verlag, 1987. Pp.403; DM.39.80.

Joachim Hoffmann, Die Geschichte der Wlassow‐Armes. Freiburg: Verlag Rombach, 1986. Pp.468; DM32.