Some two-on-two homogeneous stochastic combats

In this article we consider two versions of two-on-two homogeneous stochastic combat and develop expressions, in each case, for the state probabilities. The models are natural generalizations of the exponential Lanchester square law model. In the first version, a marksman whose target is killed resumes afresh the killing process on a surviving target; in the second version, the marksman whose target is killed merely uses up his remaining time to a kill on a surviving target. Using the state probabilities we then compute such important combat measures as (1) the mean and variance of the number of survivors as they vary with time for each of the sides, (2) the win probabilities for each of the sides, and (3) the mean and variance of the battle duration time. As an application, computations were made for the specific case of a gamma (2) interfiring time random variable for each side and the above combat measures were compared with the appropriate exponential and deterministic Lanchester square law approximations. The latter two are shown to be very poor approximations in this case.     

A one-dimensional helicopter-submarine game

The article considers a two-person zero-sum game in which a searcher with b bombs wishes to destroy a mobile hider. The players are restricted to move on a straight line with maximum speeds v and u satisfying v > u > 0; neither player can see the other but each knows the other's initial position. The bombs all have destructive radius R and there is a time lag T between the release of a bomb and the bomb exploding. The searcher gets 1 unit if the hider is destroyed and 0 if he survives. A solution is given for b = 1, and extended to b > 1 when the time lag is small. Various applications of the game are discussed.     

Inventory sharing under decentralized preventive transshipments

We consider preventive transshipments between two stores in a decentralized system with two demand subperiods. Replenishment orders are made before the first subperiod, and the stores may make transshipments to one another between the subperiods. We prove that the transshipment decision has a dominant strategy, called a control‐band conserving transfer policy, under which each store chooses a quantity to transship in or out that will keep its second‐subperiod starting inventory level within a range called a control band. We prove that the optimal replenishment policy is a threshold policy in which the threshold depends on the capacity level at the other store. Finally, we prove that there does not exist a transfer price that coordinates the decentralized supply chain. Our research also explains many of the differences between preventive and emergency transshipments, including differences in the optimal transfer policies and the existence or nonexistence of transfer prices that coordinate the system. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

The financial performance of aircraft manufacturers during world war II: the vicissitudes of war

Controversy has long surrounded the role and profitability of US defense contractors. From a financial perspective the question becomes whether defense contractors earn greater profits and investor returns than other companies during military conflicts. We explore this question by examining the accounting profitability and investor returns of US aircraft manufacturers before, during, and after World War II and compare them to a sample of non-defense firms. We also examine the reactions of aircraft stock prices to important political and military events of the time. We find that (1) aircraft stocks exhibited positive abnormal returns around events associated with defense buildups and outbreaks of hostile action and negative returns around events signaling an end to hostilities, (2) the company’s accounting returns improved during the war but these higher accounting returns did not translate into higher stock returns for the shareholders, and (3) investors could have earned higher stock returns had they switched out of aircraft stocks after Pearl Harbor and reinvested the proceeds in the overall market.     

Decision rules for attacking targets of opportunity

Frequently in warfare, a force is required to attack a perishable enemy target system - a target system where the targets are detected seemingly at random, and if not immediately attacked, will shortly escape from detection. A conflicting situation arises when an attack element detects a target of relatively low value and has to decide whether to expend his resources on that particular target or to wait for a more lucrative one, hoping one will be found. This paper provides a decision rule giving the least valued target that should be attacked as well as the resources that should be expended as a function of the attack element's remaining mission time.     

OPTIMAL FACILITY LOCATION UNDER RANDOM DEMAND WITH GENERAL COST STRUCTURE

This paper investigates the problem of determining the optimal location of plants, and their respective production and distribution levels, in order to meet demand at a finite number of centers. The possible locations of plants are restricted to a finite set of sites, and the demands are allowed to be random. The cost structure of operating a plant is dependent on its location and is assumed to be a piecewise linear function of the production level, though not necessarily concave or convex. The paper is organized in three parts. In the first part, a branch and bound procedure for the general piecewise linear cost problem is presented, assuming that the demand is known. In the second part, a solution procedure is presented for the case when the demand is random, assuming a linear cost of production. Finally, in the third part, a solution procedure is presented for the general problem utilizing the results of the earlier parts. Certain extensions, such as capacity expansion or reduction at existing plants, and geopolitical configuration constraints can be easily incorporated within this framework.     

Algorithms for minimizing total cost,bottleneck time and bottleneck shipment in transportation problems

We consider the transportation problem of determining nonnegative shipments from a set of m warehouses with given availabilities to a set of n markets with given requirements. Three objectives are defined for each solution: (i) total cost, TC, (ii) bottleneck time, BT (i.e., maximum transportation time for a positive shipment), and (iii) bottleneck shipment, SB (i.e., total shipment over routes with bottleneck time). An algorithm is given for determining all efficient (pareto-optimal or nondominated) (TC, BT) solution pairs. The special case of this algorithm when all the unit cost coefficients are zero is shown to be the same as the algorithms for minimizing BT. provided by Szwarc and Hammer. This algorithm for minimizing BT is shown to be computationally superior. Transportation or assignment problems with m=n=100 average about a second on the UNIVAC 1108 computer (FORTRAN V)) to the threshold algorithm for minimizing BT. The algorithm is then extended to provide not only all the efficient (TC, BT) solution pairs but also, for each such BT, all the efficient (TC, SB) solution pairs. The algorithms are based on the cost operator theory of parametric programming for the transportation problem developed by the authors.