Decision rules for attacking targets of opportunity

Frequently in warfare, a force is required to attack a perishable enemy target system - a target system where the targets are detected seemingly at random, and if not immediately attacked, will shortly escape from detection. A conflicting situation arises when an attack element detects a target of relatively low value and has to decide whether to expend his resources on that particular target or to wait for a more lucrative one, hoping one will be found. This paper provides a decision rule giving the least valued target that should be attacked as well as the resources that should be expended as a function of the attack element's remaining mission time.     

Inventory control of a multiproduct system with a limited production resource

Optimal control of the production of several products subject to restricted production resources is considered. Linear production, holding and penalty costs are assumed although this is crucial only for production costs. Excess demand results in lost sales. A single point plays an important role in the definition of the optimal policy.     

On minimum walks in graphs

In this paper homomorphisms are used to define four new parameters of a graph, which have to do with minimum walks in graphs satisfying certain conditions. Several bounds and exact equations are obtained for two of these parameters; a third parameter is seen to be closely related to the Traveling Salesman Problem and the question of whether a given graph is Hamiltonian.     

Desert insurgency: lessons from the third Tuareg rebellion

This article provides an in-depth examination and analysis of the 2006–2009 Tuareg rebellion in Mali and Niger. It identifies the underlying reasons behind the rebellion, explores contrasting counter-insurgency (COIN) strategies employed by the two governments, and presents some lessons learned. While both COIN approaches ultimately produced similar peace settlements, the article argues that the Malian strategy of reconciliation combined with the selective use of force was far more effective than the Nigerien iron fist approach at limiting the size and scope of the insurgency and producing a more sustainable peace. It concludes by looking at the role of external actors, particularly the United States, and how the failure to internationalize the conflict was actually more beneficial to the local COIN effort, as well as to the longer strategic interests of the United States in the region.     

Models for production planning under power interruptions

We present a robust optimization model for production planning under the assumption that electricity supply is subject to uncertain interruptions caused by participation in interruptible load contracts (ILCs). The objective is to minimize the cost of electricity used for production while providing a robust production plan which ensures demand satisfaction under all possible interruption scenarios. The combinatorial size of the set of interruption scenarios makes this a challenging problem. Furthermore, we assume that no probabilistic information is known about the supply uncertainty: we only use the information given in the ILC to identify an uncertainty set that captures the possible scenarios. We construct a general robust framework to handle this uncertainty and present a heuristic to compute a good feasible solution of the robust model. We provide computational experiments on a real‐world example and compare the performance of an exact solver applied to the robust model with that of the heuristic procedure. Finally, we include the operational impact of interruptions such as “recovery modes” in the definition of the uncertainty set. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

UK firms’ experience and perceptions of defence offsets: Survey results 1

Offsets are a growing feature of international trade in defence equipment. This article assesses the economics of offsets and outlines UK offsets policy. There is a lack of empirical work in the field and the article presents the results of a survey of UK firms’ experience of their involvement in offsets against UK imports of defence equipment. There is also a case study of the AWACS offset programme and an evaluation of policy implications.     

Large deviation probabilities for order statistics

Asymptotic representations are found for the large deviation probabilities that the nα-th order statistic exceeds δ, where δ>α. The probabilities are first expressed in terms of the empirical distribution function, and then the 1960 theorem of Bahadur and Ranga Rao is applied. The result is then shown to be more precise than a logarithmic statement in a 1969 paper of Sievers dealing with the asymptotic relative efficiency of the sample median test.     

Reliability growth of repairable systems

This paper considers the problem of modeling the reliability of a repairable system or device that is experiencing reliability improvement. Such a situation arises when system failure modes are gradually being corrected by a test-fix-test-fix procedure, which may include design changes. A dynamic reliability model for this process is discussed and statistical techniques are derived for estimating the model parameters and for testing the goodness-of-fit to observed data. The reliability model analyzed was first proposed as a graphical technique known as Duane plots, but can also be viewed as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a particular mean value function.