保证率点值区间估计的Monte-Carlo方法

提出了一种根据实测样本系列对保证率点值进行区间估计的Ｍｏｎｔｅ─Ｃａｒｌｏ方法。对于具有正态分布或对数正态分布的样本,首先推出总体参数的分布,然后用Ｍｏｎｔｅ─Ｃａｒｌｏ法生成总体参数系列,据此求得相应的保证率点值系列,最后通过经验分布推得在给定置信度下保证率点值的区间估计,本文还给出了一个算例。     

混合气体识别的响应等效性与瞬态信号正交分解模型

针对目前混合气体识别大多采用传感器稳态响应信号、基于线性混合假设或大量样本学习,而瞬态响应信号特征分析主要应用非正交分解的问题,提出一种基于响应等效性与瞬态信号正交分解的混合气体识别模型。分析金属氧化物半导体传感器对混合气体的响应特性,建立基于气体响应成分等效性假设的气体非线性混合模型,在此基础上,提出并应用一种新的正交基函数——扩展类Legendre正交基,对气体传感器瞬态响应信号进行分解;通过对正交分解系数与气体浓度的回归分析,验证二者之间的指数型关联关系,并以正交分解系数为特征参数,利用气体非线性等效混合模型对混合气体分解与辨识。实验结果表明,尽管这种混合气体识别模型仅用单一气体检测的先验知识,对混合气体的识别误差仍可达到15%以内。     

KDM 智能车的数学模型研究

本文确定了对载车数学模型构造方法,并试图以KDM-1移动机器人作为实例,用非完整系统力学当作分析工具,通过实验获得模型数据,并由实车行驶进行检验,几个重要参数由仿真试验校核。数学模型的仿真与室内的行车试验相对比的结果比较一致。对同类载车数学模型的建立提供了有效的方法。     

军人心理素质教育初探

要在正确理解素质和心理素质的基础上 ,立足于军人和军事生活的特点来理解军人心理素质。军人心理素质教育的关键环节 ,是要切实掌握如何进行军人心理素质教育的方法和途径。实践证明 ,教育引导、环境磨炼、自我养成和结合渗透是加强军人心理素质教育的四个关键环节     

Economic design of sampling plans with multi-decision alternatives

For situations where there are several markets with different profit-cost structures, economic attributes sampling plans are developed for determining the market to ship the lot to. Two sampling plans are considered; the fixed-size sampling plan with several levels of acceptance numbers, and the inverse sampling plan with several levels of sample sizes. Linear profit models are constructed which involve four profit/cost components; profit from a conforming item, inspection cost, replacement cost, and cost from an accepted nonconforming item. For fixed-size and inverse sampling plans, methods of finding optimal sampling plans are presented and examples with beta-binomial prior distributions are given.     

寻的制导控制系统设计方法探讨

对使用寻的体制探测目标的防空导弹制导控制系统设计方法进行了分析、探讨.设计中主要考虑了天线罩折射误差及去耦系数、有效导航比、稳定回路时间常数、气动力时间常数和遮挡效应的影响;对于低空制导控制系统主要考虑了多路径(镜像干扰)的影响,对布鲁斯特角效应抑制多路径(镜像干扰)的影响进行了分析.     

单组元燃料不同背压下雾化试验研究

本文以某型鱼雷燃烧室为母型,进行了单组元燃料喷嘴的低反压和高反压雾化试验研究。试验给出了SMD随燃烧室压强变化的试验结果与拟合曲线。试验表明,随着反压的增高,液雾的SMD逐渐减小,并随着反压的增高此减小的趋势变缓。     

RAISING THE COST OF REBELLION: THE ROLE OF THIRD‐PARTY INTERVENTION IN INTRASTATE CONFLICT

This paper presents a simple model to characterize explicitly the role that an intervening third party plays in raising the cost of rebellion in an intrastate conflict. Extending the Gershenson‐Grossman (2000 Gershenson, D. and Grossman, H.I. 2000. Civil conflict: ended or never ending?. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 44(6): 807–821.  [Google Scholar]) framework of conflict in a two‐stage game to the case involving outside intervention in a three‐stage game as in Chang et al. (2007b Chang, Y.‐M., Potter, J. and Sanders, S. 2007b. War and peace: third‐party intervention in conflict. European Journal of Political Economy, 23(4): 954–974.  [Google Scholar]), we examine the conditions under which an outside party optimally intervenes such that (i) the strength of the rebel group is diminished or (ii) the rebellion is deterred altogether. We also find conditions in which a third party optimally intervenes but at a level insufficient to deter rebellion. Such behavior, which improves the incumbent government’s potential to succeed in conflict, is overlooked in some conflict studies evaluating the effectiveness of intervention. One policy implication of the model is that an increase in the strength of inter‐governmental trade partnerships increases the likelihood that third‐party intervention deters rebellion.     

军用物联网研究综述

物联网是近两年的研究热点,当前,军用物联网的发展尚处于起步阶段。提出了军用物联网的概念,研究了军用物联网关键技术,阐述了军用物联网在作战训练、后勤保障、武器装备等领域的应用,展望了军用物联网研究工作中将遇到的挑战及应对方法,为军用物联网的技术研制、公共支撑环境和应用示范服务提供借鉴。