Nuclear opportunism: A theory of how states use nuclear weapons in international politics

How do states use nuclear weapons to achieve their goals in international politics? Nuclear weapons can influence state decisions about a range of strategic choices relating to military aggression, the scope of foreign policy objectives, and relations with allies. The article offers a theory to explain why emerging nuclear powers use nuclear weapons to facilitate different foreign policies: becoming more or less aggressive; providing additional support to allies or proxies, seeking independence from allies; or expanding the state’s goals in international politics. I argue that a state’s choices depend on the presence of severe territorial threats or an ongoing war, the presence of allies that provide for the state’s security, and whether the state is increasing in relative power. The conclusion discusses implications of the argument for our understanding of nuclear weapons and the history of proliferation, and nonproliferation policy today.     

More military base closure? Considering the alternatives*

Despite multiple base closing rounds, the United States Department of Defense still has excess base capacity, and thus President Trump and high-level Defense Department officials are calling for more base closure through the Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) process. However, another BRAC may not be the optimal solution, because simple base closure is not an efficient way to reduce surplus base capacity. Thus, Defense Department officials should consider other methods to reduce surplus capacity, including reduction in base size, leasing excess base property, or transferring it to another government agency for a variety of alternative uses. The surplus capacity issue also offers an opportunity to DOD to reassess base utilization, to update base requirements with current and future force structure. While BRAC focuses on American military bases, the process and alternatives also have international applications.     

Approximation schemes for single‐machine scheduling with a fixed maintenance activity to minimize the total amount of late work

We consider the problem of scheduling n independent and simultaneously available jobs without preemption on a single machine, where the machine has a fixed maintenance activity. The objective is to find the optimal job sequence to minimize the total amount of late work, where the late work of a job is the amount of processing of the job that is performed after its due date. We first discuss the approximability of the problem. We then develop two pseudo‐polynomial dynamic programming algorithms and a fully polynomial‐time approximation scheme for the problem. Finally, we conduct extensive numerical studies to evaluate the performance of the proposed algorithms. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 172–183, 2016     

China’s Search for a ‘Strategic Air Force’

Once dismissed by many outside observers, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has undergone an impressive transformation over the past two decades, emerging as one of the world’s premier air forces. As it continues to modernize, it is focused on becoming a ‘strategic air force.’ PLAAF strategists suggest this means it should play a decisive role in protecting Chinese national interests, field modern capabilities commensurate with China’s standing as a major power, and enjoy the institutional status befitting its role as a ‘strategic service,’ an important consideration given the historical dominance of the ground force in China’s military.     

Note on “An Optimal Recursive Method for Various Inventory Replenishment Models with Increasing Demand and Shortages” by Teng et al.

In a recent paper, Teng, Chern, and Yang consider four possible inventory replenishment models and determine the optimal replenishment policies for them. They compare these models to identify the best alternative on the basis of minimum total relevant inventory costs. The total cost functions for Model 1 and Model 4 as derived by them are not exact for the comparison. As a result, their conclusion on the least expensive replenishment policy is incorrect. The present article provides the actual total costs for Model 1 and Model 4 to make a correct comparison of the four models. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 602–606, 2000     

Bayesian inference for a Lanchester type combat model

We undertake inference for a stochastic form of the Lanchester combat model. In particular, given battle data, we assess the type of battle that occurred and whether or not it makes any difference to the number of casualties if an army is attacking or defending. Our approach is Bayesian and we use modern computational techniques to fit the model. We illustrate our method using data from the Ardennes campaign. We compare our results with previous analyses of these data by Bracken and Fricker. Our conclusions are somewhat different to those of Bracken. Where he suggests that a linear law is appropriate, we show that the logarithmic or linear‐logarithmic laws fit better. We note however that the basic Lanchester modeling assumptions do not hold for the Ardennes data. Using Fricker's modified data, we show that although his “super‐logarithmic” law fits best, the linear, linear‐logarithmic, and logarithmic laws cannot be ruled out. We suggest that Bayesian methods can be used to make inference for battles in progress. We point out a number of advantages: Prior information from experts or previous battles can be incorporated; predictions of future casualties are easily made; more complex models can be analysed using stochastic simulation techniques. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 541–558, 2000     

The dynamic transshipment problem

We investigate the strategy of transshipments in a dynamic deterministic demand environment over a finite planning horizon. This is the first time that transshipments are examined in a dynamic or deterministic setting. We consider a system of two locations which replenish their stock from a single supplier, and where transshipments between the locations are possible. Our model includes fixed (possibly joint) and variable replenishment costs, fixed and variable transshipment costs, as well as holding costs for each location and transshipment costs between locations. The problem is to determine how much to replenish and how much to transship each period; thus this work can be viewed as a synthesis of transshipment problems in a static stochastic setting and multilocation dynamic deterministic lot sizing problems. We provide interesting structural properties of optimal policies which enhance our understanding of the important issues which motivate transshipments and allow us to develop an efficient polynomial time algorithm for obtaining the optimal strategy. By exploring the reasons for using transshipments, we enable practitioners to envision the sources of savings from using this strategy and therefore motivate them to incorporate it into their replenishment strategies. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48:386–408, 2001     

Sequential and systematic sampling plans for the Markov‐dependent production process

Acceptance sampling plans are used to assess the quality of an ongoing production process, in addition to the lot acceptance. In this paper, we consider sampling inspection plans for monitoring the Markov‐dependent production process. We construct sequential plans that satisfy the usual probability requirements at acceptable quality level and rejectable quality level and, in addition, possess the minimum average sample number under semicurtailed inspection. As these plans result in large sample sizes, especially when the serial correlation is high, we suggest new plans called “systematic sampling plans.” The minimum average sample number systematic plans that satisfy the probability requirements are constructed. Our algorithm uses some simple recurrence relations to compute the required acceptance probabilities. The optimal systematic plans require much smaller sample sizes and acceptance numbers, compared to the sequential plans. However, they need larger production runs to make a decision. Tables for choosing appropriate sequential and systematic plans are provided. The problem of selecting the best systematic sampling plan is also addressed. The operating characteristic curves of some of the sequential and the systematic plans are compared, and are observed to be almost identical. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 451–467, 2001     

Lateral stock transshipments in a two‐location inventory system with fixed and joint replenishment costs

We address the problem of inventory management in a two‐location inventory system, in which the transshipments are carried out as means of emergency or alternative supply after demand has been realized. This model differs from previous ones as regards its replenishment costs structure, in which nonnegligible fixed replenishment costs and a joint replenishment cost are considered. The single period planning horizon is analyzed, with the form and several properties of the optimal replenishment and transshipment policies developed, discussed and illustrated. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 525–547, 1999