《军事历史研究》20年载文分析

本文以《军事历史研究》创刊20年来所发表1898篇文章为对象,对其栏目、作者和注释进行了详细的统计与分析,期望从中归纳出该刊的载文特点。     

基于改进TOPSIS法的维修保障系统效能评估研究

维修保障系统涉及因素众多,对其进行效能评估是一项非常复杂的问题.在分析TOPSIS及其改进方法的基础上,构建了维修保障系统效能评估指标体系,应用改进TOPSIS法对维修保障系统效能进行了综合评估,并将评估结果与AHP和突变评价法的结果进行比较,结论一致.为维修保障系统效能评估问题寻求出一种新的方法,其评估结果可为决策提供定量依据.     

Better is the Neighbor?

Abstract

This study applies the Sequential Panel Selection Method (SPSM), to investigate the convergence properties of the military expenditure of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) during the period of 1990–2015. Compared to the traditional methods, SPSM considers fundamentally general spatial homogeneous and heterogeneous relationships with countries and examines the evolution of military expenditure. We find that four-fifths of NATO member countries have been convergent with the UK, but no country’s military expenditure is convergent with the US. This means that there is no significant linkage effect in the US for NATO military expenditure. While they are allies of the US, the majority of NATO member countries’ military expenditures are consistent with UK military expenditure. The main reasons are due to the geographical space layout and the international relationship convergence. The results indicate that more than four-fifths of NATO member countries have been coordinated with convergence theory and spillover effect.     

A theory of war finance

This paper analyses the financial and war‐spending policies of a state that faces a conflict in which defeat would result in the loss of sovereign power and in which the material consequences, conditional on avoiding defeat, are stochastic. The analysis takes explicit account of the historical experiences of lenders, who face debt repudiation if the state to whom they have lent is defeated and who also face partial default if the material consequences of the war are unfavorable for the debtor state, even if it avoids defeat. In this analysis, the state uses war debt to smooth expected consumption intertemporally in response to temporary war spending, and the state also uses contingent debt servicing to insure realized consumption against the risk associated with the material consequences of the war. An important innovation in the analysis is to treat the equilibrium amount of war spending, the state's resulting probability of avoiding defeat, as well as the equilibrium amount of borrowing as a set of endogenous variables to be determined simultaneously.     

Comparison between constant‐stress and step‐stress accelerated life tests under Time Constraint

By running life tests at higher stress levels than normal operating conditions, accelerated life testing (ALT) quickly yields information on the lifetime distribution of a test unit. The lifetime at the design stress is then estimated through extrapolation using a regression model. In constant‐stress testing, a unit is tested at a fixed stress level until failure or the termination time point of test, whereas step‐stress testing allows the experimenter to gradually increase the stress levels at some prefixed time points during the test. In this work, the optimal k‐level constant‐stress and step‐stress ALTs are compared for the exponential failure data under complete sampling and Type‐I censoring. The objective is to quantify the advantage of using the step‐stress testing relative to the constant‐stress one. Assuming a log‐linear life–stress relationship with the cumulative exposure model for the effect of changing stress in step‐stress testing, the optimal design points are determined under C/D/A‐optimality criteria. The efficiency of step‐stress testing to constant‐stress one is then discussed in terms of the ratio of optimal objective functions based on the information matrix. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 00: 000–000, 2013     

舆论战的心理学解读

通过舆论传播平台传递信息,用以作用于受众的思想或心理,从而达到征服人心的目的,是舆论战的本质特征。利用宣传心理学的原理综合研究信息源、信息的性质和受众的特点这三个要素,是提升舆论战效能的必由之路。     

敷设气囊的充水圆柱壳的声辐射特性

为降低充水圆柱壳受内部点声源激励时的水下辐射噪声,在其外壳上敷设气囊,形成气囊圆柱壳。为指导气囊圆柱壳的设计,将充水裸圆柱壳和充水气囊圆柱壳分别简化为单、双层无限长隔板。比较隔板、气体与水的波阻抗,分析气体声速与层厚对双层无限长隔板在平面声波入射时的低频声辐射的影响机理。分析表明,声速小的气体和适当的气层厚度可以降低双层障板的辐射噪声。采用声无限元法计算气囊圆柱壳的水下声辐射,结论与对隔板的机理分析吻合。优化设计出的充水CO2气囊圆柱壳的水下辐射声功率与远场辐射声压明显低于充水裸圆柱壳。     

军队思想政治建设实现“三个确保”的路径探索

军队思想政治建设实现"三个确保",必须以强化中国特色社会主义理论体系武装为首要任务;以培育当代革命军人核心价值观为重要抓手;以全面提高完成多样化军事任务能力为实践平台;以加强各级党组织建设为关键环节;以改进创新思想政治工作为强大动力.     

军工企业安全标准体系建立初探

建立企业安全生产标准体系,是推动企业建立具有军工特色规范化和标准化的现代企业安全生产管理体系的有效途径。本文分析了军工企业安全生产标准体系建立必要性、原则和要求,阐述了体系结构层次及其建立方法,提出了正确处理与企业安全管理体系衔接和建立动态管理机制等要求。     

防空武器系统伪装技术及其发展趋势

介绍了防空武器系统伪装技术和发展现状,分析了防空武器系统伪装的发展趋势,并对我军在未来高技术条件下局部战争中的伪装方法提出了一些建议。