A dynamic general linear model for inference from accelerated life tests

We present a new approach for inference from accelerated life tests. Our approach is based on a dynamic general linear model setup which arises naturally from the accelerated life-testing problem and uses linear Bayesian methods for inference. The advantage of the procedure is that it does not require large numbers of items to be tested and that it can deal with both censored and uncensored data. We illustrate the use of our approach with some actual accelerated life-test data. © 1992 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Buy now,pay later: American military intervention and the strategic cost paradox

This paper explores the notion that US efforts to evade the political costs of war paradoxically contribute to the subsequent exacerbation of costs over time. Leaders seek to purchase political capital in the short term by limiting the costs and requirements of military operations, but in doing so cause strategic and political liabilities to mount in the long run. While identification of such behaviour is not new, insufficient attention has been devoted to explaining its causes, dynamics, and manifestations in relation to key decisions on and in war. Evidence derived from studies of recent American discretionary campaigns is analysed to advance an argument with respect to this pattern of self-defeating strategic behaviour.     

Single‐machine scheduling with deadlines to minimize the total weighted late work

We consider scheduling a set of jobs with deadlines to minimize the total weighted late work on a single machine, where the late work of a job is the amount of processing of the job that is scheduled after its due date and before its deadline. This is the first study on scheduling with the late work criterion under the deadline restriction. In this paper, we show that (i) the problem is unary NP‐hard even if all the jobs have a unit weight, (ii) the problem is binary NP‐hard and admits a pseudo‐polynomial‐time algorithm and a fully polynomial‐time approximation scheme if all the jobs have a common due date, and (iii) some special cases of the problem are polynomially solvable.     

Designing and pricing menus of extended warranty contracts

Extended warranties provide “piece of mind” to a consumer in that product failures which occur after the base warranty expires are rectified at little or no cost. They also provide an additional source of revenue for manufacturers or third‐party providers, such as retailers or insurance providers, and help cultivate consumer loyalty. In this article, we analyze a number of extended warranty contracts which differ in design, including restrictions on deferrals and renewals. With the use of dynamic programming, we compute the optimal strategy for a consumer with perfect information and determine the optimal pricing policy for the provider given the consumer's risk characterization. We also provide insight into when different contracts should be issued. Finally, we illustrate how profits can be dramatically increased by offering menus of warranty contracts, as opposed to stand alone contracts, with the use of integer programming. Surprisingly, risk‐taking consumers provide the greatest benefit to offering menus. These insights can help a company develop a comprehensive warranty planning strategy for given products or product lines. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009     

Homeland Security and Intelligence: Can Oil Mix with Water in an Open Society?

The newest US Cabinet department is Homeland Security (DHS). One of the most controversial aspects in the process of developing this entity is the role of intelligence in providing information on the increasing terrorist threat. This article examines the intelligence challenges for homeland security. In doing so, it explores the problems of merging disparate cultures - law enforcement vs intelligence, civil entities vs military, federal vs state and local jurisdictions, and domestic focus vs international perspective. Given the nature of the globalized, asymmetric threat, the need for more and better intelligence sharing is obvious. Terrorists and other criminals do not respect international boundaries; in fact, they exploit them in an effort to prevent effective and timely countermeasures. This demands that robust multinational collaboration and interagency coordination be practiced.     

Suppression of enemy air defenses (SEAD) as an information duel

Blue strike aircraft enter region ? to attack Red targets. In Case 1, Blue conducts (preplanned) SEAD to establish air superiority. In the (reactive) SEAD scenario, which is Case 2, such superiority is already in place, but is jeopardized by prohibitive interference from Red, which threatens Blue's ability to conduct missions. We utilize both deterministic and stochastic models to explore optimal tactics for Red in such engagements. Policies are developed which will guide both Red's determination of the modes of operation of his engagement radar, and his choice of Blue opponent to target next. An index in the form of a simple transaction kill ratio plays a major role throughout. Published 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 49: 723–742, 2002; Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI 10.1002/nav.10046