Predicting intensive care unit bed occupancy for integrated operating room scheduling via neural networks

In a master surgery scheduling (MSS) problem, a hospital's operating room (OR) capacity is assigned to different medical specialties. This task is critical since the risk of assigning too much or too little OR time to a specialty is associated with overtime or deficit hours of the staff, deferral or delay of surgeries, and unsatisfied—or even endangered—patients. Most MSS approaches in the literature focus only on the OR while neglecting the impact on downstream units or reflect a simplified version of the real‐world situation. We present the first prediction model for the integrated OR scheduling problem based on machine learning. Our three‐step approach focuses on the intensive care unit (ICU) and reflects elective and urgent patients, inpatients and outpatients, and all possible paths through the hospital. We provide an empirical evaluation of our method with surgery data for Universitätsklinikum Augsburg, a German tertiary care hospital with 1700 beds. We show that our model outperforms a state‐of‐the‐art model by 43% in number of predicted beds. Our model can be used as supporting tool for hospital managers or incorporated in an optimization model. Eventually, we provide guidance to support hospital managers in scheduling surgeries more efficiently.     

Note: Open-shop scheduling with release dates to minimize maximum lateness

We present the first polynomial-time algorithm for an open-shop problem with unit execution times, arbitrary release dates, and due dates. The objective is to minimize maximum lateness. © 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Assessment of machine tool reliability using a proportional hazards model

In this article we present a proportional hazards model for describing machine tool failures. The model enables us to describe the effect of aging as well as the effect of the machining environment on tool life. We discuss inference for the model and show that computable results can be obtained in a fully Bayesian analysis by using approximation techniques. We illustrate the usefulness of our model by applying it to some actual data on machine tool failures.     

Probability inequalities via negative dependence for random variables conditioned on order statistics

Distributions are studied which arise by considering independent and identically distributed random variables conditioned on events involving order statistics. It is shown that these distributions are negatively dependent in a very strong sense. Furthermore, bounds are found on the distribution functions. The conditioning events considered occur naturally in reliability theory as the time to system failure for k-out-of-n systems. An application to systems formed with “second-hand” components is given.     

Simultaneous determination of production and maintenance schedules using in‐line equipment condition and yield information

In many manufacturing environments, equipment condition has a significant impact on product quality, or yield. This paper presents a semi‐Markov decision process model of a single‐stage production system with multiple products and multiple maintenance actions. The model simultaneously determines maintenance and production schedules, accounting for the fact that equipment condition affects the yield of each product differently. It extends earlier work by allowing the expected time between decision epochs to vary by both action and machine state, by allowing multiple maintenance actions, and by treating the outcome of maintenance as less than certain. Sufficient conditions are developed that ensure the monotonicity of both the optimal production and maintenance actions. While the maintenance conditions closely resemble previously studied conditions for this type of problem, the production conditions represent a significant departure from earlier results. The simultaneous solution method is compared to an approach commonly used in industry, where the maintenance and production problems are treated independently. Solving more than one thousand test problems confirms that the combination of both features of the model—accounting for product differences and solving the problems simultaneously—has a significant impact on performance. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Impediments to Fighting the Islamic State: Private Contractors and US Strategy

The United States has returned to Iraq, this time to combat the Islamic State. President Barack Obama’s strategy to ‘degrade, and ultimately destroy the terrorist group’ faces serious problems due to political obstacles in obtaining Congressional Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF) and more importantly because of neglect of the crucial role of private contractors. Although the narrative has changed, and there is no public mention of contractors, they remain central to all that the Department of Defense does in the US and abroad. Suggestions are offered on how their performance can be improved to support President Obama’s strategy.     

Geopolitics over Proliferation: the Origins of US Grand Strategy and Their Implications for the Spread of Nuclear Weapons in South Asia

How much does the United States care about nonproliferation? Recent scholarship suggests that the fear of spreading nuclear weapons was central to the US grand strategy in the Cold War. In one important case, however, this argument does not hold. This article draws on theoretical debates and newly declassified archives to demonstrate the primacy of geopolitics over nonproliferation in Washington’s policy toward India and Pakistan. Despite their rhetoric, Democratic and Republican leaders consistently relegated nonproliferation to the backburner whenever it conflicted with other strategic goals. Moreover, they inadvertently encouraged proliferation in South Asia at three inter-connected levels: technology, security, and identity.     

Resource efficiency in aircraft production

This article examines measures of economic efficiency in aircraft production. In particular, a type of nonlinear frontier estimation is contrasted with more traditional methods for estimating a dynamic cost function. This cost function is grounded in economic theory, and it is consistent with knowledge of the aircraft-production process. The model includes the effects of both learning and production rate on total program costs. The usefulness of the model is demonstrated with an example that relates to the acquisition of military equipment. It is shown through various sensitivity analyses that an alternative procurement policy for an aircraft program could have resulted in increased efficiency and hence a lower total program cost to the government.     

Spaghetti: systems thinking and the US Army

In the mid-2000s, the United States Army was embroiled in counterinsurgency missions in Iraq and Afghanistan that required deeper understanding of local social systems. The Army turned to systems thinking and design thinking to model and understand the world, define problems, and develop approaches to strategic and operational challenges. However, the Army’s approach as expressed in publications and doctrine encourages the development of complicated, unsupported, and unfalsifiable hypotheses. The risk is that the Army will act on incorrect assumptions and develop plans that are fragile.