现役船体结构可靠性评估理论研究现状及展望

作为现役船体结构可靠性评估的关键技术,可靠性评估理论直接决定了可靠性评估结果的有效性和置信度。从可靠性评估理论的计算原理、度量指标计算及工程应用等方面阐述了传统可靠性评估理论和非概率可靠性评估理论的发展历程及研究现状,分析、总结了各可靠性评估理论在现役船体结构可靠性中的优势及不足,给出了今后开展相关研究的展望,并指出了现役船体结构可靠性研究的重点。     

腐蚀损伤下船体总纵极限强度可靠性分析方法探讨

针对腐蚀损伤下船体结构安全性评估问题,基于实船腐蚀勘验数据,引入非概率可靠性评估理论,提出舰艇现时状态下船体结构总纵极限强度非概率可靠性分析方法,建立船体结构非概率可靠性分析模型。对某舰艇船体结构现时状态下的总纵极限强度可靠性及非概率可靠性分析方法在船体结构安全状态评估方面的应用性进行了分析。结果表明:非概率可靠性分析方法克服了过度依赖样本数据的缺陷,较确定性方法更贴近客观实际,在舰艇船体结构技术状态评估方面具有较好的应用前景。     

基于双向映射的非网格型全向图展开插值方法

原始的全向图存在严重的同心圆环状变形,通常需展开为更适合人眼观察的柱面全景图像。结合折反射全向成像特点,提出一种基于双向映射的全向图展开为柱面全景图像的插值方法,通过光路跟踪得到图像间的坐标映射关系,将所要生成的柱面全景图中每一点正向映射到原始的全向图中,确定插值邻域点;将这些邻域点逆向投影到柱面全景图中,针对邻域点在柱面全景图中呈非网格型分布的特点,采用非均匀二维插值算法进行图像插值运算。该方法既准确地定位插值邻域点,又避免了全向图的非线性畸变对邻域点权重计算的不利影响。实验证明该方法能有效提高插值精度和展开后图像的质量。     

Potential impact of recharging plug‐in hybrid electric vehicles on locational marginal prices

Plug‐in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), upon market penetration, will create additional recharging loads to the electric power systems. This article considers different recharging scenarios and uses game theoretic models to study the potential impact of the recharging loads on locational marginal prices (wholesale electricity prices). Computational results from a Pennsylvania‐New Jersey‐Maryland Interconnection case study show that, under the existing recharging infrastructures, even a small magnitude of load increase caused by PHEV recharging could have a significant undesirable impact on locational marginal prices. The impact could be mitigated to a varying extent by the availability of possible future recharging infrastructures, including realtime pricing recharging meters, battery stations, or vehicle‐to‐grid technology.© 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

A bivariate optimal replacement policy for a cold standby repairable system with repair priority

In this article, an optimal replacement policy for a cold standby repairable system consisting of two dissimilar components with repair priority is studied. Assume that both Components 1 and 2, after repair, are not as good as new, and the main component (Component 1) has repair priority. Both the sequence of working times and that of the components'repair times are generated by geometric processes. We consider a bivariate replacement policy (T,N) in which the system is replaced when either cumulative working time of Component 1 reaches T, or the number of failures of Component 1 reaches N, whichever occurs first. The problem is to determine the optimal replacement policy (T,N)* such that the long run average loss per unit time (or simply the average loss rate) of the system is minimized. An explicit expression of this rate is derived, and then optimal policy (T,N)* can be numerically determined through a two‐dimensional‐search procedure. A numerical example is given to illustrate the model's applicability and procedure, and to illustrate some properties of the optimal solution. We also show that if replacements are made solely on the basis of the number of failures N, or solely on the basis of the cumulative working time T, the former class of policies performs better than the latter, albeit only under some mild conditions. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

论军事人才的信息素质

新形势下加强高素质新型军事人才队伍建设,必须高度重视军事人才信息素质培养,在明确军事人才信息素质基本内涵基础上,准确把握不同类型军事人才信息素质的特征,实施差异化培养,为推进军队建设整体转型提供有力支撑.     

军工企业质量信息管理浅谈

质量信息管理是军工企业开展质量管理体系建设的重要环节,质量信息为企业质量决策、改进、考核等方面提供了有力依据,其特性也为企业的质量活动提供了基础,掌握质量信息管理的主要形式是提高军工企业质量管理的重要手段。     

基于隐Markov树的序贯故障诊断模型

为了充分利用先验信息和实测信号,提高故障识别率,根据Bayes方法和序贯决策的思想,将实测信号分段,将前一段信号的诊断后验信息作为后一段信号的先验信息,提出了一种基于隐Markov树(hidden Markov tree,HMT)的序贯故障诊断模型.给出了诊断模型的建模步骤、HMT模型的建立方法和Bayes后验概率的计算方法.将模型应用于某型减速器故障诊断的结果表明,对于有先验信息和无先验情况,该序贯模型都可以有效地提高故障识别率.     

基于模型转换的异步空间配准算法

在分布式融合系统中,融合中心在对传感器发送过来的航迹数据进行融合处理前,需要采用空间配准算法来消除航迹数据中可能存在的系统误差.已有的空间配准算法未考虑滤波处理中的状态方程对配准过程的影响.对不同传感器具有不同状态方程条件下的异步空间配准实现进行了研究,采用将模型误差和系统误差合并处理的思路,提出了基于模型转换的异步空间配准(AMCBA)算法.仿真结果表明AMCBA算法能够实现对模型误差和系统误差的准确估计.